Population Report Math...

SportscardAdvocate

Okay, I understand the concept behind the population report. What I'm trying to do is extract some information for a couple of reasons. One is what's a card worth. Scarcity I'm sure builds up the value of the card, but with common cards so rarely submitted, it's tough to extract that. The other is how easy is it to find the card in a specific condition. This is tough because one person's hero may another's nobody.

I just lucked out and received news that my 69 Jenkins graded 8. Now, I'd like to try to see what this is worth (SMR aside, I find it doesn't predict it that well with low liquidity cards.) For whatever reason there aren't many examples on eBay so I don't know what this card is worth. I see the pop report and it seems low, but from a numbers perspective it almost seems like it's treated like a common. Has anyone thought to engineer some kind of analysis on what a card might be worth given it's pop report, it's type (star/semi-star/common) and year?

Failing that, can someone give me a rule of thumb to use the pop report to gauge how high I should be bidding on cards I'm missing for my 62 set.

7orbetter

here is the equation I use, it has worked well for me . . .
2.143769 + 3.21*456209% should equal 9.256 divided by the square root of pie, does anyone have a better one?

Cubfan

Just curious- What kind of pie did you obtain the square root of? It makes a big difference in the calculation. I personally use banana creme, but that doesnt work every time either.

jaxxr

In the real world...
Is not there some relavance to populations of SGC and Beckett also, in determining true "rare" cards ?? Not all collectors are PSA exclusive and may bid / buy another nice item in a different holder.
Another point or thought is, regarding set collectors, for instance, if you have a particular semi-star in a 9, will you be an active bidder on another ( perhaps the fourth 9, now making the pop. advertisment correct at 1 of 4 ) card of the same player, or will it now go for lower because most of us only want or need one copy of most cards ????
And to Cubsfan...Really good lemon creme pie is by far the most accurate indicator in my own formulars !!

Buckwheat

Sportscardadvocate,

That is actually a very good question, but difficult to answer. I do have a spreadsheet that calculates values for the '61 set, based on population, and desirability of the card. The desirability is the toughest to estimate, unless you are constantly following the set. I factor in whether they are a local hero, semistar, yankee, etc., but it is certainly somewhat subjective. And the pop differential I am sure is different in different sets.

For the '69 set, your best bet is to ask the '69 collectors. You might try emailing some of the topp set guys, or gaspipe, to see if they have a feel for the value of the Jenkins. Or just keep watching Ebay. One is bound to come up before too long.

Good luck

waitilltheytrytosell

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2721279713&category=16273

Virtualizard

There are way too many variables to determine the "current value" of a card. To get a rough idea, compare the POP of the card (A) to the number of active collectors on the set's registry who already have the card in that grade (B). If A<B, then you are going to see some action and final bids that may not reflect the future value of the card once more are graded. This is the main factor in the valuation of cards. For instance, a POP 20 card with only 10 active collectors who already have that card probably will not sell for SMR, if at all. A POP 20 card with 30 active collectors will probably sell for multiples of SMR. SMR is really meaningless (I know that you already realize this - I just thought I'd point it out again).

There are many cards that never make it into a registry set, yet are still out of circulation. Some collectors have cards registered in player sets, team sets, HOF sets, no set at all, etc. but not in the year's set. Some cards have been resubmitted to PSA multiple times without correcting the POP. These variables make it tough to come up with a value for any given card based on the POP report.

Experience is the best guide. Do some research and buy for what you feel the card is worth.

Good luck.

JEB.

RayBShotz

Sportscard Advocate - I'll take a shot at your question about Jenkins. The 69' is obviously not an early Jenkins; a few years removed from his rookie card. Having said that, he is an HOF'er. Some of the major HOF'ers tend to establish higher values across their career than others. Guys like Mays and Yaz and Rose (I know; not an HOF'er officially but fits nicely in this premise) get strong action no matter what year card it is or how many years removed from their rookie they are. The other thing in your favor though, is that Cub fans and Cub collectors are plentiful.
I havent taken the time to search out whether most of the major active registry players have this card (I do) but I would suspect that even with a reasonably high pop on this card the Jenkins would likely sell favorably to SMR. You are right in that not that many show up on ebay. Between the 69' collectors, Cub collectors and HOF colectors there are quite a few retained among this group.
If your keeping it, you have a nice HOF'er for your collection. If you auction it my gut tells me that you would do pretty well. Congrats. Are you actively considering or building a 69' set?
RayB69Topps

SportscardAdvocate

Thanks to waittilltheytrytosell for finding me a recent auction. It sold for $3 over the $40 SMR. I emailed the second place winner and he/she offered to buy it at a BIN price if I list it (which is not quite what I wanted, but I'll take it.)

I've learned some good things on this thread and I'd like to thank you all. I'm going to try to build a model that takes into account all the factors y'all have uncovered (although seeing how many registries are after the card will be tough.)

I like the 69's but not enough to move them up my list of priorities (right now it's 62 and 67). Also, being unemployed and starting a business, selling cards has got to finance the hobby. All I have left from my breaking up a 75% complete set are Gaylord Perry and Bert Campaneris. Fergie and the Fingers rookie were the only cards submitted for grading with the result being 8 and 7 respectively. I figure the Fingers rookie will go for mid $30's, since a pretty liquid card.

Thanks gentlemen. I appreciate your insights.