Friend wants to buy five figure coin and me OK it

Friend has become interested in $50 Pan Pac Octagonal NGC-64 offered by my long term dealer [and also my friend]. He has decided to purchase the coin if I feel the price is fair. This is his number one dream coin but, he has never purchased a five figure coin. The coin appears PQ for grade to me but, I have very limited experience with this coin. No question in my mind that this dealer will offer him a fair price but I would like to know currently how you price gold commemorative's? Do they bring a larger discount to sheet as they did in the distant past. What would be a fair price range. Should he need to sell the coin what per cent of the purchase price [assuming no change in the market] should he realistically plan to realize? A disclaimer I have reminded him that coins are a precarious investment but he reminded me this is his dream coin. Dang it, I'm stuck in the middle.
Collect for enjoyment
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Comments
Good luck; can't help you , except to say that your friend has nice taste.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Frank
Appears to have nice subdued luster [appears original to me] not bright and flashy
Fields are nice and clean without the tics, etc you normally see on large gold coins
A few light hairlines? about 10 o'clock on the reverse...faint
Strike uniform but I really don't know how to tell on this coin
Eye appeal is nice and attractive but not flashy...actually looks better longer you look
I covered the grade and tried to grade it, waffled between 64 and 65 but, I'm in over my head on this coin.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The Heritage archives list several of these over the years so you may want to take a look there and get some idea of price as well as historical performance.
It looks like the last several Heritage auction sales of this coin were just below the today's sheet price for the same grade. There were three MS versions that sold through Heritage in 2002. One was a PCGS 64 and it went for $36,800. The other two were PCGS 63s and they both sold for $26,450. Bid is currently $28,500 in 63 and $39,000 in 64. Heritage prices include the buyer's fee.
So, assuming there was little volitility in the sheet price over the past year, these were selling 5-10% back of sheet. I didn't try to figure out from the images are descriptions if they were PQ, average or what.
Hope that helps a little,
WH