Am I to believe the pop of 1975-S PR-69 DCAM Jeffs just doubled overnight from 82/0 to 173/0? UPDATE

RGL

UPDATE: Both homerun and Carol say they are checking on the situation and will advise. Carol says PCGS was working on the Jeff pops and it "likely" is an error. But, as of 7:38 p.m. EDT, the pop remains 173/0...

Cruising eBay. Come across a less-than-hour-old David Hall Rare Coins listing for a 1975-S PR-69 DCAM with a $99 BIN. Strikes me as a great buy. Do a little price research and the coin has consistently gone for $170 to $230 during the past year. Consult the 2-day-old PCGS Jeff pop report saved to my hard drive. An 82/0 coin, nine more than an older pop report (73/0) from March 5 showed. I BIN the coin.

Being the impatient type, I immediately add the cert number to my set to upgrade the coin. The pop shows 173/0. What's up here? I go to the pop report and it indeed lists 173 coins. It can't be ... a coin goes from 82/0 to 173/0 in two days, essentially overnight? I check the cert numbers around the coin I just purchased. It shows it is among nine 1975-S Jeffs graded consecutively, all receiving PR-69-DCAM. The nine coins added to the previous March 5 pop (73) indeed would increase the pop to 82 as shown two days ago ...

Did someone make 91 1975-S 69 DCAMs in the last two days? Is that why DHRC seemed to have a bargain BIN on this coin? Can this be a pop report mistake? The 68 DCAM pop for the date only increased one. If someone did have a huge, high-grade hoard, you would think more than one of 100 coins would tick down to 68. Have you ever heard a top pop modern doubling overnight? If it did, I have learned a big lesson: Never trust a 2-day-old pop report on the assumption a coin cannot gain huge numbers very quick ... Anyone else have a clue?

mbbiker

I don't have pop reports but when you see a coin listed by the man himself with extreamly low BIN price always question why. Remember if it seems to good to be true it probably is. Now about your question I would guess it's a mistake because even HRH wouldn't submit that many at one time

RGL

Can this even be possible -- yeah, I know anything is -- but, wouldn't PCGS begin blowing its credibility, not to mention prices, it it doubles pops overnight? Has to be an error ... who hoards 75-S Jeffs, of all things, and scores 91 out of 92 as PR-69 DCAMs?

DCAMFranklin

Ya, but.....wink, wink.....elbow, elbow....they don't submit coins for grading.

It is funny that some of the coins from these BIG jumps in Population always seem to end up in DHRC's inventory with what "appear" to be very attractive prices.

I saw this happen with the MS-69 '95 & '96 ASE's and the 2002 MS-68 State Quarters.

If you hurry, you can get to Walgreen's before they close and pick up some Preparation H.

wondercoin

Seriously, this would not be surprising to me at all. All it would take is screening say 1000 fresh 1975 proof sets and pulling 6 or 7 dozen PR69's would be very possible IMHO. The coin will still likely command a value of say $50 even at the higher pop I suspect, and why would they be worth any more than that? No one should confuse truly scarce modern Jeffs (like say mid-1970's dated coins in MS67FS) with relatively common coins such as PR69DCAM's from the mid-1970's to date.

Wondercoin

braddick

Sounds like you stepped into buying one at the right time. I'd rather pay the $99. you did today than the going price last week.

Monstavet

Many moons ago (I don't have a link), keets and I and a few other Jeff Proof Reg-Heads had a thread on these 1975 Jeffs and how overpriced they were...none of us considered the date difficult, just under-submitted. They were going on Teletrade for ~$200 at that time and it seemed outrageous. I made a nice profit on a few of those...

One of these days, someone is going to pop out a bunch of 71s and 72s in 69DCAM....that will be nice to see. maybe not 71s actually...I have looked long and hard and submitted the best I could find and PCGS just won't go to 69DCAM. Alas, I had one that seemed like a shoo-in but it got stolen by that guy at the post office who was making off with every other shipment to PCGS. It will forever be the one that got away....I bet that stupid jerk opened the package and thought "There's nothing but a bunch of junky nickels in here!" and then put them in his piggy bank....two years of hard collecting down the tubes in that shipment.

But I digress...

jonesy

So what happened to the jerk at the post office??
Glenn

Baley

the probability of populations of certain coins in certain grades increasing suddenly, is proportional, in my opinion, to how old the coin is, and how absolutely scarce. Newer proof coins do not suffer the same attrition that older coins did, that is to say, almost all were saved. Some of these will periodically be "discovered" in one collection or another, consider Russ' recent find of a very gem AH half. To cite another extreme example to demonstrate the point, consider the 1995-W American Silver Eagle, of which 30,125 were minted, and the 1801 U.S. Half dollar, of which 30,289 were minted, 164 more, but 194 years earier. In the time since the two coins were minted, how many of each still survive, and in what condition? If you had one of each, say an AU 1801 half dollar and an MS69 95W ASE, which coin would you be more confident in the population numbers, considering how many might still be ungraded, will not suffer the "1903-O silver dollar syndrome" and have many more "made"?

itsnotjustme

As far as the PR68DCAM pop not increasing, don't forget a bulk submitter could have said not to slab ones that didn't make 69.

CarlWohlforth

I remember the conversation where we thought more '75-S Jefferson Nickels in 69 DCAM would be made. I have held off buying for a while. Perhaps I can now find some as I am a buyer at around $50 or so.

I think there are several more '71s out there. We have heard of one being made recently but the pop has gone up by 2 so now there are 5 of them. I think '71 will remain the toughest date in the 70s.

Russ

<< <i>maybe not 71s actually...I have looked long and hard >>



Monsta,

Glad you added that. Like you, as well as several others around here, I've gone through hundreds of 1971 proof sets and I just can't see much growth in 69DCAMs at all for the coins.

RGL,

Remember my comment in your other thread? Am I a coin idiot savant or what?

Russ, NCNE

DCAMFranklin

"All it would take is screening say 1,000 fresh 1975 proof sets and pulling 6 or 7 dozen PR69's would be very possible IMHO."

So right, Wondercoin! With a mintage of 2.8MM+, there are plenty of big supplies of fresh 1975 proof sets.

The same is true of the 1971 proof sets with a mintage of 3.2MM+ !! There are still 100's of thousands of those proof sets still sitting in their unopened mint shipping boxes.

SeattleSlammer

RGI,

This is exactly the reason I stay away from paying big money for modern coins. That same population could easily go up 5X, 8X, 20X, 150X......there are millions of those coins out there!!!!!! The sellers that get the big money for these coins now, right before they shoot up, are in the right place at the right time. Unfortunately, most likely that coin will eventually be worth far less than the $99 you paid. Hey, at least you didn't buy it for $150, right?

CarlWohlforth

Where does one find unopened mint shipping boxes of 1971 proof sets? I think I'd like to buy one...

BNE

This is the kind of thing that gives me the shivers. I cannot believe a run like this was actually made. Someone must have fallen asleep with their finger on the enter key.

I was one of the unfortunates who paid the longer green for mine. I will live to collect another day. But this is indeed the downside of moderns. I am just counting on my "early" sets of Jeff proofs to hold their value. I only really got into the modern moderns to complete the run of the series.

Please let us know what happens, RGL!

wondercoin

"But this is indeed the downside of moderns"


BNE: Don't make the mistake of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Like I said, virtually all of the mid-1970's to date Jeffs in PR69DCAM are "Chuckie-Cheese party bag" coins IMHO (i.e. just fun coins to build attractive looking sets with). On the other hand, the MS specimens in true MS67FS are wonderful coins. Also, the early 70's and the 1950-64 run contain super tough coins to locate in top grade DCAM. Let's just address this for what it likely is (and many of us knew it would be) - a somewhat mildly tough Jeff date which a smart "producer" identified and slabbed the crap out of. 69dcam. And, if this is an "error", even better - I will pull all my 1975 proof sets Wondercoin

cladking

<< <i>Where does one find unopened mint shipping boxes of 1971 proof sets? I think I'd like to buy one... >>



This is one of the hardest of the proof sets to find in unopened boxes. Most of
the original buyers opened them to look for the no-S coin. The few that didn't
get checked tend to be opened immediately when they come on the market. Mint
sets tend to be much easier to find unopened than most of the modern proofs.
Look in estate sales and offer dealers a premium for them, you can find a few
with effort. Advertising for them would probably be futile unless a very high pre-
mium were offered.

cladking

The pops of many moderns are going to go a lot higher. This does not
apply to those which have been slabbed for many years like the Ikes and
some of the halfs. Most proofs and many of the smaller denomination coins
have not been widely sought out yet. Large numbers of sets were made
and while most have long since been destroyed there are significant num-
bers of most remaining. Very few people collected these coins until recently
so there was no reason to slab them. Now a few people are collecting and
slabbing these and many are proving to be pretty tough. That these coins in
some cases exist in the dozens or hundreds may prevent them from being
rare in the traditional sense, the fact remains that even 173 coins would hard-
ly be a flood if the number of collectors continues it's torrid increase. Hundreds
of thousands of people are collecting moderns now and there is a pool of tens
of millions of state quarter collectors from which these new collectors are evolv-
ing. Many of the states collectors are becoming quite advanced collectors also.
If you want to get into moderns do your homework or you will be forced to let
the escalating prices bail you out of a lot of mistakes.

Moderns are hot! The grading services are swamped with moderns to grade!
Population of something has to go up.

Buy the coin, not the slab... ...or the pop.




spelling, punctuation

SportsModerator2

See David's post.

cladking

ttt- for those reading Homerunhall's recent post.

DCAMFranklin

Did everyone read David Hall's thread confirming the Population #'s???

Two days ago RGL posted a thread asking about the sudden jump in the Pop of 1975-S Jeffs PR69DCAM from 82/0 to 173/0. The dealer who made the coins called me and said the jump was correct and he had made the coins.

This can happen with some of the modern issues. It is not unusual for a dealer to submitt 200, 300, even 500 or more of the same issue. There will be occasional times when Pops jump, even double.

David


Interesting that David Hall Rare Coins was the seller in RGL's transaction. Yet, DH "didn't know", "wasn't aware" or "I can't recall" the Population jump. Hmmmmmm.......

SportsModerator2

I would also like to clarify that the Population Report is updated weekly not daily as I believe someone mentioned in another post.