The coin market is HOT, HOT, HOT
sinin1
Posts: 7,500 ✭
Whenever I hear that, I think a correction is near - what are your thoughts
1)How long do you feel the coin market will go up
2)Will this depend on stock market and global economy
3)which series/issues/grades will have smallest decline (% wise) at next downturn or correction
4)which series/issues/grades will have the largest decline (% wise) at next downturn or correction
5)right now are you a net-buyer or net-seller of coins
1)How long do you feel the coin market will go up
2)Will this depend on stock market and global economy
3)which series/issues/grades will have smallest decline (% wise) at next downturn or correction
4)which series/issues/grades will have the largest decline (% wise) at next downturn or correction
5)right now are you a net-buyer or net-seller of coins
0
Comments
Russ, NCNE
2. They're not unrelated but probably a lower correlation. Like an r=0.3 or something
3. The staples: Morgans, lincolns, bulk silver, etc.
4. Certain moderns, super high end middle 20th century coins
5. I'm a buyer far more than a seller. Though I have recently chosen to take a several month vacation from purchasing.
<< <i>The coin market is HOT, HOT, HOT >>
whenever i hear that, i know it's another stupid spam from heritage
K S
sounds like you've been reading the headlines on the PCGS homepage. actually if it's only HOT, HOT, HOT then it's cooled off quite a bit. Last time I checked it I had a guinea-pig coworker read the headline for me. He was instantly vaporized, and all that's left of him is his shadow on the back of my cubicle.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
Tyler
become more comfortable paying more than face value or a nominal premium for
coins. In ten years it will look as almost everything is under priced at the current
time. Which coins have the greatest drop will be primarily dependent on what hap-
pens in the next ten years, but they will be the coins which are most overvalued in
relation to their demand at that time. Many of these are likely to be moderns largely
because it is likely that these coins will continue to lead the advance. At some point,
virtually all coins will be increasing in demand.
I've always bought coins I believed were undervalued, and sold coins when I was of-
fered too much for them, especially if they're over valued. I don't sell coins from my
collections.
Some of the most common generic certified coins such as common date MS64-MS65 Morgans, Walkers, etc. are still at very low levels and still just a fraction of their 1989 highs. The only reason IMO for the price advances in generic gold were due to a price spike in bullion prices which have since come down significantly.
IMO, a "HOT" market denotes significant price increases across the entire spectrum of coins which we clearly haven't seen in this instance, and seemingly crazy prices realized for a very few select coins at high profile public auctions does not make a hot market IMO.
if anything, call me crazy, but i sense a signficant slowdown in the market. & i don't believe 1 bit all those claims by heritage that they set this record & that record. so what? if someone tomorrow sells a beenie baby on ebay for $1000, that doesn't mean beenies are hot, it means someone was stupid
K S
<< <i>Once upon a time, there were five blind men who had the opportunity to experience an elephant for the first time. The first approached the elephant and, upon encountering one of its sturdy legs, stated, "Ah, an elephant is like a tree." The second, after exploring the trunk, said, "No, an elephant is like a strong hose." The third, grasping the tail, said, "Fool! An elephant is like a rope!" The fourth, playing with an ear, stated, "No, more like a fan." And the fifth, leaning against the animal's side, said, "An elephant is like a wall." The five then began to argue loudly about who had the more accurate perception of the elephant. >>
For some, it's hot, for others it's not. I'm sure a lot of it depends on what sector of the market one is playing with. I dabble in a little bit of everything, as a small, nonspecialized dealer, and it looks pretty strong from where I sit.
Generally speaking, of course.
I'm feeling kindof fiesty tonight and i havn't spoken my mind completly in a long time, but tonight i think i'm not going to try to be diplomatic.
Better quality eye appealing coins will always comand the best prices no matter which way the coin market is heading.
But is not true that you can't find high end coins in most series without paying multiples of bid.
Since i've been called a 30 year newbee about that statement, i would ask anyone who's seen my collection if they think i'm a 30 year newbee or if my statement is not true!
There are some areas where "the market" does not keep up with actuall transactions or where the sheets don't list certain catagories [and probably never will] monster toned type date morgans are very pretty, but who knows how much they are really worth? How does a collector determin what a "hot coin" is really worth????
If i ever get in the position of buying again, i will not buy "hot" coins. And will find top 5% for the grade coins for 30% over greysheet or less sometimes. Anyone who has seen my coins knows this can be done in most {not all] but most areas of the market. Pretty natural toning was always my favorite s long as the coin wasn't bumped up a grade for the color and the luster was full under the toning.
Using greysheet as a bible for high end coins is nonsense, but ignoring greysheet entirely as a "basic" wholesale price guide can be very dangerous when you may have to sell your coins some day. Les
<< <i>Some of the most common generic certified coins such as common date MS64-MS65 Morgans, Walkers, etc. are still at very low levels and still just a fraction of their 1989 highs. The only reason IMO for the price advances in generic gold were due to a price spike in bullion prices which have since come down significantly. >>
Some of these coins may NEVER return to those levels...while the coins that are actually rare can and already have made up much of the difference since the nastiness of 1989. Quality semi-key and key dates in all series, all dates in some undervalued series and most quality classic coins in collector and investment grades have either disappeared from the market or advanced tremendously in price recently. The generic coins you mention may be relatively stagnant but they have finally reversed a several year downward trend in sight-unseen bid prices.
IMO...there are a greater number of quality collector and investment grade coins that are off the market long-term than there have ever been before. Good coins are in great demand and there is no reason for that to change soon. Corrections will happen within certain series or even globally but they will be nothing more than short-term anomalies.
Answering the questions:
1) There may be short term corrections but long-term the rare coin market should be solid for 20 years or more.
2) No. A certain base population of collectors will not radically change their purchasing habits based on economic conditions while investors will find compelling reasons to diversify into numismatics in both slow and rapid economic growth conditions.
3) & 4) I'll leave these alone for now...
5) selective net buyer
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
I saw the same news report from the Iraqi Minister of (mis)Information (a.k.a. Baghdad Bob)
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
<< <i>Dear dorkkarl,
The upcoming Heritage Long Beach Signature and Bullet Auctions allow you to take advantage of a HOT coin market. In spite of economic and geopolitical events, the numismatic market remains robust!
With over 75,000 registered Internet buyers on our website, we produce the demand every collector dreams of for their collection. Couple this with "sight seen" viewing on every Signature and Bullet auction lot at the Long Beach Coin Show and you have the ingredients for a very dynamic auction. But we don’t stop there. We also accept thousands of phone bids and Live Internet bids during the auction itself. This third tier of bidding demand creates for explosive potential for every consignment we receive.
If you've been considering liquidating some duplicates, have a certain area of numismatics that no longer interest you, or are considering the sale of your entire collection, contact me today! >>
BLAH BLAH BLAH - babble - babble - babble
you get the idea
gosh, w/out heritage, how would i ever know whether the market was HOT? i mean, gee, i'm just not smart enought to figure it out myself, i guess
K S