SMR vs. Realized Prices...What's a good buy?

gotti36 · April 8, 2003 1:38AM

Having only converted to PSA vintage material about a year ago, I am relatively new to the SMR. Having dealt with a large amount of newer cards, I think it's safe to say that cards will generally sell for roughly half of their Beckett book value. However, following PSA auctions on Ebay over the past year has led me to believe that the realized prices on PSA vintage is pretty close, if not dead on, with the SMR.

Do you more seasoned PSA collectors have an opinion? Is my assumption correct? Of course, some cards may sell for a premium because of who it is, or if someone really needs it for their set, or if it has a low population, etc. Am I completely off with my analysis of the SMR? I think I remember people discussing a few months back that 1953 Topps baseball SMR was way off.

Finally, assuming that cards sell for their SMR value, what would you consider a good buy? 50, 75, 90 percent of SMR? I guess if they sell for their SMR value, then 99 percent of it would be "good", but I'm scanning Ebay (along with the rest of you!) looking for a REALLY good buy. Any thoughts?

Brian

crazysc · April 8, 2003 1:49AM

If you're looking for just "really good buys" with no real direction, then you're essentially a dealer. Nothing wrong with it, but part of being a dealer is you have to know the market. Hey, I love the guys that print the SMR, but that guide never bought or sold a card in it's 10 odd year existance.

I can sell you selected cards at 30% off or more of SMR, and I'll buy selected cards from you at 200% of SMR. Doesn't mean you're getting a good "deal", in either case.

gotti36 · April 8, 2003 2:27AM

Crazysc-

You make some great points. I'm actually putting together a low to mid grade 1953 Topps set along with a higher grade 1964 Topps Giants set, and I just don't want to over pay on something. But as you said, I guess it's just whatever someone is willing to pay. Thanks for your input.

Brian

LuxuryWines · April 8, 2003 2:36AM

Brian,

Welcome to the boards and welcome to working on the 64 Topps Giants cards ( great set) . As to the 64 TG most of the cards can be had for a discount to the SMR ... Especially some of the Stars in PSA 9 . And some of the common cards will sell for a very heavy premium to SMR whenever they come up. My advice to you is check the Population reports and that should give you an idea which cards will sell for a premium... Jeff

FB · April 8, 2003 2:38AM

Brian,

You're best bet would be to start researching the closed (completed) auctions on eBay of the cards in your sets in the desired grades. Education will definitely save you money. It won't always get you the cards you want at the price you want, but at least you'll know what things are selling for. And if you couple this knowledge with the Population report, you'll have even a better idea of why things sell for what they do.

But, there will always be times when two guys bid $1000+ on a PSA 6 card that should go for $20. No rhyme or reason why... As long as you're not one of them - you're doing fine...

alohaet · April 8, 2003 2:40AM

Gotti36, I just won an auction on ebay for a 1955 Topps All American Don Hutson PSA 8. The SMR for that card is $350 and my winning bid was $629. It was a card I need for my set and it does not come available very often. I think there were 20 bids for the card. This card is not RARE in PSA 8 grade as there is 59 on the SMR Pop Report. But apparently collectors when they get this card keep it and make it a difficult card to get. The SMR is just a guide as they state. Individual cards can fluctuate greatly in price. I needed this card for my set, so I bid what I had to get it. Good luck with your sets.

Ed

JasP24 · April 8, 2003 4:48AM

Ed, congrats on the Hutson...I was prepared to go $500, but once it went over that I re-directed. Ended up picking up a nicely centered PSA 8 Unitas for $675. A card I needed for my "hotly contested" QB set. lol

Good to see you get the card though..

JasP24

alohaet · April 8, 2003 5:10AM

JasP24, thanks for not making me pay more.

I paid way more than I wanted, but sometimes it happens. I have just upgraded my 1965 Philadelphia Paul Warfield Rookie Card to a PSA 9. If you are interested in that card in PSA 8 NQ I have it for sale. I'm looking for $125 which includes postage and insurance. If interested let me know and I won't put it on ebay. Nice pickup of the Unitas card. He has always been one of my favorites ever since I watched that big Championship Game in 1958 on TV when I was a kid.

Ed

AlanAllen · April 8, 2003 5:12AM

That was a nice Unitas you picked up. Sorry I had to snipe you on the Hornung, but you know me and my running backs

Joe

Basilone · April 8, 2003 5:15AM

I would also say that many "star" cards from the mid 60's can be had for under SMR. There are exceptions with any set though. For example, with the 1965's...Harmon Killebrew is a tough card to find in high grade. So even though the card SMR's for $100.00...I just sold on via BIN for $150.00 a few hours after I listed it. The 1965 Mantle can be had for under SMR all the time.

Whatever set you choose....you might want to take a solid month just to study market conditions before investing big time in a set. This would included taking notes or setting up a spreadsheet and tracking the selling price on every card of the set on eBay. This will help you avoid over bidding on card...plus you will be able to see a trend of what cards seem to show up week after week...and which cards do not.

John

KING KELLOGG · April 8, 2003 5:22AM

gotti36...

I agree with Jeff (LuxuryWines) on the Population Report issue. Even though the PR isn't perfect, it certainly shows what the trends of available #'s are. Team that up with what Frank (FB) said and you pretty much have it.

Trying to put logic to collectors buying habits is alot like trying to understand women...Just when you think you have it all figured out...It changes!!!

Good luck on your sets!!!

Larry

Galveston · April 8, 2003 6:35AM

I think SMR is a decent attempt to gauge long term value but the concept of the Registry is throwing SMR out of whack. Low pop commons consistently sell for the price of Hall of Famers and in some cases, even higher. You would think it would eventually return to 'normal' but who really knows.
The registry and these boards have created individual experts on specific sets. If you are bidding on a card that is outside of your area of expertise, you don't really have a good handle on the perceived value. And if you are bidding against people that know more than you do, good luck.
I like the advice that instructed you to watch the completed prices on e-bay. That's a good way to learn.

Dhjacks · April 8, 2003 6:57AM

As stated, always look at the completed items. I bid on a 1970 Jerry West PSA 8 yesterday and got it for $43.00, while the SMR was
$90.00 .
At first I was a bit smug for getting it for less than 50% of SMR, but when I looked at the completed items.....it sold twice in the past week for $39 and $44.
If I had won it at my max bid (far below smr), I would have paid much more than the past two sales.
A nice reminder to myself to always check the completed items.

JasP24 · April 8, 2003 9:06AM

Ed- Been trying to pick up the Warfield for $100-$110 on ebay and I've been close a couple of times. If you are willing to sell for that I would definitely be interested. If not, I totally understand and I'm sure I will be bidding if you put it up for auction..BUT, you could save the $3 or 4 you would pay ebay for listing and final value..lol

Joe- Actually, I'm thankful you did snipe me. I bid on a few of those high priced cards hoping to get ONE of them. If I would have gotten more than one I would be sleeping out in the doghouse tonight..So Thanks...lol.. And your RB set is reaching "untouchable" level...

JasP24

alohaet · April 8, 2003 1:41PM

JasP24, I just sent you a PM.

Ed

Fabfrank · April 9, 2003 2:43AM

alohaet, jasp24, AllanAllen- I was laughing as I was reading your posts. I was looking to bid/or bid on all those cards. I wanted Jasp24's Unitas, but was away from my computer and couldn't bid.
AllanAllen- I was looking at that Hornung, but just bought a PSA 7 last week. I was hoping to receive it and compare it to the 8. It still hadn't come so I passed, but at that price I would have taken the card. That was a good buy for you.
Ed- I'm happy you finally got your Hutson. I noticed you removed the Biletnikoff from your want list too. Congrats!
I did pick up the Bowman N. Van Brocklin RC PSA 8, so it wasn't a bad week afterall. It would have been a nice Trifecta if I could have gotten the Unitas and Hornung PSA 8 too.

gotti36- Welcome to the boards. In response to your post. It seems when I sell I get under SMR and when I buy I have to pay over SMR. But as everyone else has said, use SMR as a guide and follow the completed items to get a better idea of what certain cards are going for.

AlanAllen · April 9, 2003 3:54AM

Frank, the PSA 7 Hornung you picked up was on my watch list too

It looked high-end and you'll probably be happy with it. I decided not to bid because I'm trying to do the RB set in 8-10, so I had to buck up and put my bucks up for the PSA 8. It probably went low because it starts with an 02 serial number, and it has some uneven toning. But, the centering is great and the corners look OK, so I'll probably be happy with it.

Joe

Fabfrank · April 9, 2003 4:57AM

the PSA 7 Hornung you picked up was on my watch list too It looked high-end and you'll probably be happy with it
AllanAllen- Exactly why I went for the card in 7. I've been holding off for an 8 and this card looked like an upgrade candidate. If it doesn't bump up that's okay too. It looks to have great eye appeal. The 8's that I've seen lately on Ebay have all been on the weak side.
Same thing on the Jim Brown. Lots of 8's the last 6 months, but all low end and OC material.

AlanAllen · April 9, 2003 5:16AM

The 9 that MintState has looks nearly perfect, but I seem to have misplaced the $5,000 bill I had in my wallet

. Gotti, sorry for hijacking your thread, that happens a lot round here.

Joe

ydsotter · April 9, 2003 8:52AM

I think that a good buy is when you acquire a card you want at a price you feel good about.
Early on I was quite frustrated with SMR because it didn't seem to reflect what I was seeing on eBay.
I regularly pay over SMR for the vintage basketball cards I want.
Once I paid $299.00 for a card that had an SMR value of just $28.00~
The good people on these boards helped me realize that SMR is not a cannonized part of the bible... SMR is an ever changing and evolving guide that reflects popular values based on sales and estimation.
I imagine that your attitude towards SMR will ultimately be determined by how passionate you feel about what you are collecting.
A PSA 8 1974 topps Connie Hawkins basketball card likely has an SMR of around $15.00
Show me one and I won't hesitate to pay you $50 or $75.00~
reagards and good luck working it all out.
-G

1420sports · April 9, 2003 9:14AM

I recently paid over 200 for a card listed at 35 in the SMR. Three months ago I could have bought it (and (I am talking about the exact same card) for 100. Great dealer to work with and now I have the card.

It all evens out

SMR vs. Realized Prices...What's a good buy?

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