Population stats for 1956 Topps bb
Scoop
Posts: 168 ✭
Before I give you the figures that the title suggests, I want to give you a little background.
Just over 4 years ago, I sat in my den looking over my raw 1956 bb set. I had built it as a kid right from wax packs that I or some of my friends, with whom I traded, had busted; the only handling was from pack to folders by teams. Don't get me wrong, I still had kid fun -- wisely flipping just the dupes, dinged, and poorly centered cards that I couldn't trade.
It was 57 cards shy of a complete set, and my hopes for completing it were dim as I had only been able to find 2 suitable (pack-fresh, nicely centered) additions in the previous 20 years (1979-1999) from local shows and card shops.
Alas, then came the internet, and with it, ebay (I became a member in Feb 1999); finally a way to finish. BUT, I soon found out what most of you vets already know....buying raw is a tedious, expensive lesson in futility if you are building a NM/MT or better set, and I would accept nothing less.
Alas, card grading!! I could secure my cards in permanent holders, while at the same time getting an expert opinion of my cards. So I bought the remaining few cards I needed already graded and then sent my raw cards to PSA (which was the best of the grading choices). After getting them back, I only had to upgrade 22 cards that were either oc, 7's, or less (FYI, I only got 5 PSA 9's and no 10's).
I finished (technically I still to upgrade 1 card) about 6 months ago; here is where the crux of this winded post comes. I have downloaded and printed pop reports for this set every 3 months for the last 18 months (except the last quarter of 2002) just to keep an eye and pulse on this set as it is a pretty large investment (though some here dispute that card collecting is in this category).
Here are the numbers:
DATE..........PSA7.......%...........PSA8...........%..........PSA9.........%...........TotalGraded.............increase%
9/2001........12716....29.5......17235......40.0..........1094.......2.5............43177......................----------
12/2001......13872....29.8......18475......39.7..........1154.......2.5............46513..........................7.1
4/2002........15168....29.9......19317......38.1..........1188.......2.3............50628..........................8.1
7/2002........15369....30.0......19469......38.0..........1209.......2.3............51261..........................1.2
10/2002......17073....30.1......20224......35.6..........1242.......2.2............56715..........................9.6
4/2003........18942....30.3......21376......34.1..........1268.......2.0............62519..........................9.3
Analysis:
1.) Percentage of each grade to total has remained relatively constant which shows consistancy of grades.
2.) Total amount of cards submitted has started to slow over the last 6 months (9.2 % increase for the last 6 months as opposed to 9.6% increase in previous 3 months); though I am surprised that there are still that much nice raw stuff out there.
If anyone has pop numbers on other years, I am sure some of us statistical wackos would be very interested.
I have sifted through SGC charts somewhat, but the numbers are too small to be of any additional value; and I am sure BVG and GAI would have even less.
Just over 4 years ago, I sat in my den looking over my raw 1956 bb set. I had built it as a kid right from wax packs that I or some of my friends, with whom I traded, had busted; the only handling was from pack to folders by teams. Don't get me wrong, I still had kid fun -- wisely flipping just the dupes, dinged, and poorly centered cards that I couldn't trade.
It was 57 cards shy of a complete set, and my hopes for completing it were dim as I had only been able to find 2 suitable (pack-fresh, nicely centered) additions in the previous 20 years (1979-1999) from local shows and card shops.
Alas, then came the internet, and with it, ebay (I became a member in Feb 1999); finally a way to finish. BUT, I soon found out what most of you vets already know....buying raw is a tedious, expensive lesson in futility if you are building a NM/MT or better set, and I would accept nothing less.
Alas, card grading!! I could secure my cards in permanent holders, while at the same time getting an expert opinion of my cards. So I bought the remaining few cards I needed already graded and then sent my raw cards to PSA (which was the best of the grading choices). After getting them back, I only had to upgrade 22 cards that were either oc, 7's, or less (FYI, I only got 5 PSA 9's and no 10's).
I finished (technically I still to upgrade 1 card) about 6 months ago; here is where the crux of this winded post comes. I have downloaded and printed pop reports for this set every 3 months for the last 18 months (except the last quarter of 2002) just to keep an eye and pulse on this set as it is a pretty large investment (though some here dispute that card collecting is in this category).
Here are the numbers:
DATE..........PSA7.......%...........PSA8...........%..........PSA9.........%...........TotalGraded.............increase%
9/2001........12716....29.5......17235......40.0..........1094.......2.5............43177......................----------
12/2001......13872....29.8......18475......39.7..........1154.......2.5............46513..........................7.1
4/2002........15168....29.9......19317......38.1..........1188.......2.3............50628..........................8.1
7/2002........15369....30.0......19469......38.0..........1209.......2.3............51261..........................1.2
10/2002......17073....30.1......20224......35.6..........1242.......2.2............56715..........................9.6
4/2003........18942....30.3......21376......34.1..........1268.......2.0............62519..........................9.3
Analysis:
1.) Percentage of each grade to total has remained relatively constant which shows consistancy of grades.
2.) Total amount of cards submitted has started to slow over the last 6 months (9.2 % increase for the last 6 months as opposed to 9.6% increase in previous 3 months); though I am surprised that there are still that much nice raw stuff out there.
If anyone has pop numbers on other years, I am sure some of us statistical wackos would be very interested.
I have sifted through SGC charts somewhat, but the numbers are too small to be of any additional value; and I am sure BVG and GAI would have even less.
building 1956 Topps PSA 8/9
0
Comments
I have something similar with red man cards. But it is not broken down a consistent time
interval as yours. Plus it is not on any current spreadsheet I have kept up to date.
I'll see if I can dig anything up.
aconte
I agree that the likelyhood of 8'and 9's POPs going south on a pct basis compared to lower grades is fairly certain and with 1956 it seems your set will continue to rise in value.
It would be interesting to take a similar approach with POP percentages for say 1972 and see if this type of analysis held up. I would guess not. Itwould be likely it seems that 8 and 9 pct would be growing in relationship to other grades as raw material became more prevalent. Anybody with any thoughts on that?
RayB69Topps