OHIO-p QUARTER - WHAT DOES FUTURE HOLD?

wondercoin · April 1, 2003 1:20AM

I believe it was Typetone who reported here on the boards at the beginning of the year that a leading Coin Magazine article had selected the OHIO(p) quarter in grades of MS67 and better as one of the top 10 smart buys of the year (I believe the list also included 1793 Chain Cents if I recall correctly).

Besides the Ohio Buckeyes winning the National Championship in 2002 - the same year of their state quarter, I believe when the Philadelphia Mint had begun producing the Ohio quarters, they were closed by OSHA. As a consequence, the mint production for the OHIO(p) quarter was around 217,200,000 coins. As someone else calculated "by comparison, the average production for the 16 preceding state quarters produced at the Philadelphia Mint was 545,934,250!

Yet, the Ohio(p) quarters "come nice" and are presently the highest "pop" coin in the PCGS pop report in the MS68 grade (over 700 graded)!! So, we have a situation where the lowest mintage state quarter also appears to be the best produced state quarter by the mint.

Do you think the Ohio quarter in top grade has a bright future, or is the low mintage figure for this state meaningless in light of the super job the mint did in producing this coin? By my calculations, this coin in grades MS67 and MS68 has probably dropped in price by about 25%-33% this year while some other state quarters from 1999-2001 may have shown a similar increase in value over that time period.

What do you think of the future of this particular state quarter in high grade?

Wondercoin

Steve27 · April 1, 2003 1:41AM

At 217,200,000 I find it difficult to view this as a low production coin; thus, I see it as a 1950-D nickel wanna be (and we all know what happened there).

jonesy · April 1, 2003 1:48AM

There will be a lot of unexperenced collectors paying high prices for these quarters. It will be alot like the .com stock shares. In the long run, only the dealers and graders will have made a fortune from it. A mintage of 217 million means there will be full roll laying back for years. I think the word for this is FAD. Of course this is just my opinion, I could be wrong.

halfnut · April 1, 2003 2:16AM

Could it be that due to all the hype that they are rare that more are being sent in to get graded and thus a higher pop of high grade coins?

Typetone · April 1, 2003 2:28AM

I think Scott Travers made the call as one of his 10 top picks for 2003. Scott often has some good insight, but I think he will miss badly on this one, especially since he was recommending the MS67 (at I think $150 or something like that) and not even the 68s.

Greg

mdwoods · April 1, 2003 2:38AM

I think all the high grade quarters will increase in value as the program nears it's end. That's when a lot of people will want to finish or build sets. Too bad PCGS doesn't put OSU National Champions on the slab. Those would sell like hotcakes. mdwoods

At least in Ohio.

wondercoin · April 1, 2003 2:53AM

Typetone: It does appear that way at the moment.

Understand that at the moment the OHIO(p) in PCGS-MS66 sells for about $7 (well less than grading fees and costs), $25-$30 in MS67 (perhaps $10 over "cost") and around $50 in MS68. So, I do not believe anyone is out there "hyping" OHIO(p) quarters (or they are surely doing one hecka poor job of it)

Also, from my personal experience with the 2002 mint sets, the OHIO(p) quarters do, in fact, come a bit nicer than any other state quarter, with the possible exception of a couple other "p" mint coins, which may come as nice. No question, trying to locate an OHIO(d) quarter in MS68 is like "night and day" compared to the OHIO(p).

Finally, the issue of mintage is also interesting. Is 217M a huge number? That is a very fair question. Consider the 1946(p) Lincoln cent with a mintage of roughly 1,000,000,000!!!! While that, by all accounts, is considered a huge mintage, so far, just a couple MS67RD coins have been produced at PCGS (and not because no one is looking for them). On the other hand, the 55(s) Lincoln with a relatively tiny mintage compared to 1946(p) "come nice" and has 50-100x the pop in MS67 grade.

Geez - if Mark's idea is adopted and the slabs denote the Buckeyes, perhaps 700 MS68 coins would not be enough for the state of OHIO

Wondercoin

relayer · April 1, 2003 4:17AM

<< <i>At 217,200,000 I find it difficult to view this as a low production coin; >>

But 217,199,995 are crappy.

TheNumish · April 1, 2003 6:30AM

I really don't think Scott Travers knows a lot about the modern market but was just looking for a modern coin to throw into his list of predictions. He made certain assumptions when coming up with his prediction. He saw the mintage of the Ohio-P coins was small and therefore assumed the percentage of coins that would be small by the same ratio. He didn't realize that the Ohio-P Quarters in the 2002 mint sets are by far the nicest looking coins for grading.

The truth is every coin has it's own personality. Some come nice, some come ugly. Some you can find nice in mint sets and some you can only find nice in rolls. The Virginia-D has one of the highest mintages of all state quarters yet there are less than 10 coins graded MS-68.

It's interesting to see how much one persons opinion influences the market. Before the Coinage article came out I was selling Ohio-P in PCGS MS-68 for $40. After the article came out I was getting $100 for them. Now they are worth $50. I think in 3 months they will be $35 coins. Just goes to show when something goes up in value due to hype over time the market will bring it right back back down to earth.

merysu · April 1, 2003 9:45AM

Geez - if Mark's idea is adopted and the slabs denote the Buckeyes, perhaps 700 MS68 coins would not be enough for the state of OHIO Mitch, you may have said this tongue in cheek, but TOSU fans broke a souvenir sales record set in 99 by Rams fans after Super Bowl win. A state where 4 high school games during 2001 playoffs had between 31,000 and 47,000 fans in attendance is serious about football and will probably buy anything related. Only one other state can compare in this kind of fanaticism--Texas.

wondercoin · April 2, 2003 1:56AM

No doubt, you are right about the Ohio State Football fans. Maybe it's worth the $5 or $10/coin to relabel them as Mark suggests.

Perhaps the flag of the Great University on the holder as well!

Wondercoin

beartracks42 · April 2, 2003 2:49AM

Mitch, Speaking as a lifelong Buckeye and Buckeye fan, if the slabs were enhanced to promote the National champions, the slabbed Ohio quarter demand would go "NUTS".

wondercoin · April 2, 2003 3:18AM

Gary: Thanks. Maybe I'll try to quietly buy up Datentype's position first before I make my next move

Wondercoin

scher · April 2, 2003 3:22AM

I think its a huge waste of time to collect this type of junk..maybe buy a proof set for the kids or a bunch of proof qtr. sets to start a young collector and spark interest.. but in my opinion its a complete joke and a terrible long term investment to buy this type of crap...
Bruce Scher

wondercoin · April 2, 2003 3:44AM

Bruce: I am also certain of one thing though - a PCGS-MS66 Ohio(p) quarter for $15 or $20 (up from the current asking price of $7) with mention of the OS National Champions on the holder as a lasting memory of the National Champions should likely last longer and OUTPERFORM a teeshirt

Wondercoin

Datentype · April 2, 2003 3:51AM

I think that all of the State quarters will see fluctuations during the next several years through 2008 and into 2009. The people who dissregard coins like these are missing the market and thus the demand for high grade quality coins. There is such a broad market for these high grade coins that I feel you can sell as many as you make and when they are not being popped in high grade anymore i.e. 5-10 years down the road, I feel these high grade slabbed coins will grow at a steady rate and prove to be a nice investment down the road and complete sets will sell for a premium. I'm so sure on this popular series that I would bet $ on it.

scher · April 2, 2003 4:30AM

ok mitch..i will give ya that ..should outlast a tee shirt.but....probably not as rare..and might be worth about the same..(humor)
bruce

TheNumish · April 2, 2003 4:37AM

I wonder how long it will be until there is one bid for 2002 mint sets taken out of the brown mint boxes and another for 2002 mint sets removed from those boxes. Some of those sets sure are nice. Just ask the millwright.

Whitewashqtr · April 2, 2003 2:11PM

I sold my 1,000 coin bag of Ohio-P quarters a few months ago for a nice premium. I figured I would take advantage of people thinking that the Ohio-P quarter would be the "rarest" to get and therefore speculate. I think I did good.. considering most high grade coins come from mint sets and not bags.

WWQ

scher · April 3, 2003 3:10AM

mitch this last post sure makes my point...1000 coin bag sold..how rare can these be..
bruce scher

telecoin · April 3, 2003 3:52AM

<< <i>1000 coin bag sold..how rare can these be.. >>

Mitch,
That statement reminds me of what we were being told about slabbing short set wheat cents ('41 to '58) 5 years ago. Dealers said there were bags of them and they would never maintain value. Now they are dried up and through the roof! Some selling for 10x what we were selling them for then. Maybe they may now be listening to our predictions about Memorial cents???

wondercoin · April 3, 2003 4:07AM

Jamie: You notice I do not "fight" these statements. Bruce S. knows his 19th Century coins as well as anybody.

I do remember 5 years ago when I posted a 1948(p) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD (pop 1/0) on ebay and suggested to many folks coins like that were grossly undervalued at $200/coin. Then, 3-4 years ago, I sold on ebay (to a board member) the 1946(p) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD (I think that was also pop 1/0) for the unheard of price of $999 Buy it Now (as I recall)!!

THAT COIN HAS A 1,000,000,000 MINTAGE -5x the mintage of the OHIO(p)!!!! Yes, that 1948(p) Lincoln has now shot up to pop 5 I believe 5 years later - so it has only risen roughly 20 fold since then.

The 1946(p) - I can't imagine what that coin would command at a major auction today. I also remember trading a 1955(d) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD for a customer's 1909(s) in PCGS-MS65RD about 3 years ago and the customer telling me what a great favor he was doing me giving up so much value for my 55(d) Lincoln

RELLA - how did I do on that trade? Heck, I even had trouble selling (4) PCGS-MS68RD 1939(p) Lincolns at a couple grand each a few years ago - a smart board member bought (2) from me, while another board member bought (1)

Want to talk about 1950's Lincolns - I "scored" around $800 on a killer 1952(p) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD and I was selling 1958(d) Lincolns in PCGS-MS67RD at around $150 (I just saw one one ebay for $1950 this week

) MY POINT IS THESE WERE THE "JUNK" LINCOLNS THAT WERE GOING TO BE MADE IN MASS QUANTITIES FROM THE MYRIAD BAGS (I even remember a prediction that 1935(s) Lincolns were going to be popped in huge numbers of PCGS-MS67RD from the great number of bags sitting out there) These late date Lincolns were my "good deals" - please don't ask me what I sold the pop 1/0 1931(d) Lincoln, the pop 1/1 1915(p) and pop 2/0 1909(s) Lincolns in PCGS-MS67RD for (to name just a few)

So, let them make fun of high grade MS state quarters and Memorial Cents. For that matter, MS Clad Kennedys and Wash quarters are crap as well

OK Telecoin - you got me started, but, I'll stop now, because this thread was not intended to recommend Ohio quarters - I actually like MANY moderns a heck of a lot more than OHIO(p) quarters - But, I still contend a nice PCGS-MS67 Ohio in a special holder is as cool a souvenir as a Buckeye teeshirt and should outperform the teeshirt over time

scher · April 3, 2003 5:22AM

i will buy the shirt..
bruce scher

cladking · April 3, 2003 6:07AM

Wondercoin: There are huge numbers of new and begginging collectors. The blue
folders for circulating coins are selling in mass quantities. These people are entering
the hobby in ways which were unforeseeable, and will expand their collections in ways
which are unpredictable. But some age old truths are likely to persist; they will desire
to complete and upgrade their sets, they will feel increasingly comfortable spending in-
creasing amounts for single coins, and they will branch out to include other coins, and
exonumia. Exactly how these trends will play out is anyone's guess, but one thing is
certain: There will never be enough of the pop tops and superb gems for large numbers
of people to use them as a basis for their collections. There are bags of many post-1934
coins, but even those which do often exist in significant numbers do not always come nice.

It follows that there should be a great deal of investment potential in both the more com-
mon gems but more especially in the second tier gems of those which are tough in top
grades or scarce in unc. One thing is sure; whatever the potential for appreciation lies
in the moderns the potential for discovery, uniqueness, and fun is tremendous.

beartracks42 · April 3, 2003 10:28AM

Another thing that "IS SURE", is that someone who does not collect something will beat the drum constantly to let everyone who does, know how dumb they are and how smart he is.

The best part is that you do not even have to ask for their opinion. they just pound it on top of you.

scher · April 4, 2003 1:54AM

gary.. i beleive the topic was a question..what do you think of the future of the ohio qtr.? I am certainly not trying to pound it over anyones head ..and you know what i wouldnt say i "collect " this stuff but i have my qtr set aaaand i buy em for all the kids in my life..silver clad proof etc... i was just answering the topics question..if i offended your way of life or anything please accept my deepest apology..
bruce scher..

pontiacinf · April 4, 2003 2:20AM

I just sold al a 1000ct ohio P bag...I think he made a smart investment at what I sold it for.

RELLA · April 5, 2003 3:35PM

<< <i>RELLA - how did I do on that trade? >>

Well Mitch that depends...whose turn is it to be bullish on short set Lincolns this month?

Well...according to the pop report you got rooked.

OK I'll be bullish...I LOVE the fact that PCGS is starting to open their minds to letting a few short set Lincolns 67 again. Buy up the low pop 67s being made now as they are the coins that dealers sat on for the last year or more refusing to let them out the door as 66s; they should blow most other 67s out of the water. A "fresh" 67 of a pop 50/0 or better variety should really be worth at least twice as much (if not more) as an older 67 of the same date IMHO.

The Ohio-P quarter on the other hand is toast.

RELLA

wondercoin · April 5, 2003 4:42PM

"The Ohio-P quarter on the other hand is toast."

RELLA: I'll "bite" for a round or two.

TOAST YOU SAY? We'll let me tell you something - I'd rather have an OHIO(p) State Quarter in PCGS-MS69 AND $5,000 CHANGE IN MY POCKET as compared to say a 1954(p), or 1953(p) or 1949(p) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD. How about you Rella? Would you rather have $5,000 cash and an OHIO(p) Quarter in PCGS-MS69 in your pocket or, say, a 1949(p) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD? Time to spread a little jam on your toast???

Wondercoin

OHIO-p QUARTER - WHAT DOES FUTURE HOLD?

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