Sight Unseen Values - A "real world" experiment!
MrEureka
Posts: 24,332 ✭✭✭✭✭
You receive a phone call from your local banker. He is representing an estate that contains some coins. He needs to get sight unseen bids (NO, you can't look) from three bidders for a group of coins being liquidated for an estate. He already has sight unseen bids from two local coin dealers, so you're the third and final bidder. What are your bids for each of the following?
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens PCGS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens NGC MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ANACS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens SEGS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ACG MS 65
FYI, current CDN bid is $1100. CU is $1300.
Here are the rules:
1. You must price the five coins individually.
2. The five coins will be individually awarded to the highest bidders.
3. Your bid should be based on the profit motive, not your desire to educate your banker about the relative merits of the grading services.
4. If you need it, your banker will lend you the money to buy the coins.
5. The sale is "as is", even if the coins turn out to be overgraded or fakes.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE try to resist the urge to rage against your least favorite grading services. I'm just trying to get a handle on relative values.
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens PCGS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens NGC MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ANACS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens SEGS MS 65
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ACG MS 65
FYI, current CDN bid is $1100. CU is $1300.
Here are the rules:
1. You must price the five coins individually.
2. The five coins will be individually awarded to the highest bidders.
3. Your bid should be based on the profit motive, not your desire to educate your banker about the relative merits of the grading services.
4. If you need it, your banker will lend you the money to buy the coins.
5. The sale is "as is", even if the coins turn out to be overgraded or fakes.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE try to resist the urge to rage against your least favorite grading services. I'm just trying to get a handle on relative values.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
0
Comments
My bids would be
PCGS $750
NGC $700
ANACS$650
SEGS $350
ACG $300
Jeremy
NGC-$650
ANACS-$600
SEGS-$450
ACG-$350
Get ACG coin for just over gold spot.
Is this a real, real world experiment? I.E. you will only get the real corrrect bids if the best bidder really has to buy the coins. Is that going to happen here. If so, I would prefer to give you my bids by PM.
Greg
Interesting. Maybe the Posse would like to consign examples of each service to a major auction company and make a condition of sale that nobody will be allowed to look at the lotS before the sale. But I digress.
BACK TO OUR UNREAL AUCTION! YOUR BIDS, PLEASE!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
NGC $925
ANACS $750
SEGS $650
ACG No Bid
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I need to know what the spread is in order to fully answer the question. If profit is the motive, sight unseen I wouldn't bid more than around 64 bid for the PCGS or NGC coins and I wouldn't bid much more than spot for the ANACS and SEGS coins and I would no bid the ACG coin.
Sight unseen is a fool's game. Out of 10 such instances, you will lose more money than you make by bidding anything more than the above.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
TDN, you're comparing apples to oranges. If you bid S/U on CCE, yes, you will usually lose because you only get to buy something AFTER it has been shopped everywhere else first. That means you only get the worst overgraded trash or the things for which you're just bidding too high. (BTW, Eureka was founded in large part to solve that problem, but that's another story for another time.)
Anyway, the above fake "real world" experiment has nothing to do with CCE. If you buy the coins you likely WILL make money. That's because you only have to outbid two people, and they are similarly handicapped by not having seen the coins. Everyone will bid a little cheaper, and the deals will probably work out just fine.
As for ACG, I'd bid, but I'd bid cheap. Even if I thought the coin might be whizzed AND fake, I'd take a shot at at least $200, probably much more. (At $200, I'd break even with a 14K gold fake. If it's real, I score.)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Or am I analyzing the situation too deeply?
Let's just say that when my banker really does call with a deal, I'm gonna hope that one of the first two calls he made was to you!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
ngc 750
anx 495
segs 495
acg 250
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens NGC MS 65 $750
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ANACS MS 65 $750
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens SEGS MS 65 $750
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ACG MS 65 $750
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
NGC.......825
ANACS...825
SEGS.....650
ACG........Spot
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens NGC MS 65--$860
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ANACS MS 65--$615
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens SEGS MS 65--$500
1927 $20 Saint Gaudens ACG MS 65--$350