Very interesting market observation ...

RGL

In their new catalog in my mailbox today, John Feigenbaum and DLRC report they believe the bull market in coins is very real, with no end in sight. To quote: "According to James Halperin, (Heritage) CEO, they had over 2,450 different bidders in the February Long Beach sale alone. An 18 percent increase over the same sale in 2002. Our market is indeed growing with new collectors!"

So, the cynic asks:

Is that marked increase largely attributable to new collectors, established collectors being more active or a mix?

And, was the material notably better in the '03 auction than the '02?

Answers/opinions invited ...

barberlover

When prices are strong more nice coins are offered for retail and auction. When the price of proof buffalos exploded last year Heritage started auctioning 20 or more pieces every single major signaure auction since. Les

truthteller

This is actually a true statement. The market is very bullish, IN SELECTED AREAS. There is no blanket commentary, specialized areas of the market are red hot, others are so-so, others are soft. Just like stocks, you have to know the marketplace before you accept what the dealers say. This is an EXCELLENT time to sell coins. If you buy coins, be prepared to pay premiums. The coin market is like the TITANIC, you won't know you hit the iceberg until the water is at your feet. Usually, the coin collector doesn't know about true market conditions until it's too late. So be aware, in 6 months, there could be a substantial turnaround and the dealers won't tell YOU until they've cleared their inventory first.

TRUTH

Mojoe

I think the increase in bidding activity is due to new collectors but also because established collectors now have internet access. I have been a collector for 22 years and just recently purchased my first computer (1/02). I thought the '02 auction had better material than the latest one. Or at least it had more coins that I was interested in.

Lakesammman

The FUN sale re: IHC's and FE's was very strong. Many factors involved.

State quarters bringing in new collectors.
Aging population getting back into old hobbies.
People afraid to travel - spending more time with hobbies.
Alot of publicity in general.
New books/clubs in particular - for instance, growing # of folks interested in IHC's since a number of books published and a club started in the early 90's.
Availability of gratification via the internet - easier than ever to find coins w/o travel hassle.
Stock market doldrums - not sure I believe this one, yet I've pulled money out to buy coins, so maybe there is something to it.
Low interest rates - easy to tap the LOC w/o much short term risk.


Rare coins are rare and there are more people in the world than ever before. If even a small percentage take up collecting, that puts enormous pressure on a few coins.

So, I think there are many reasons why the strong market for RARE coins is real and will remain that way for a long time. It's built on real fundamental reasons for price appreciation, not a bubble. Common coins are a different matter. I would avoid any series where there are still rolls and bags waiting to be searched and certified.

Lakesammman

PS - Forgot 2 important other factors.

The pop reports - now we know what is truly rare, not like the late 80's.
The registries - have become a market moving force for many series, though not all.

michael

i think truthteller has hit on something here

sincerely michael

RegistryCoin

I think that the increase in numbers of bidders (over a year ago) is directly related to an increasing comfort level for internet bidders, not "new collectors", as mentioned. These bidders win few auctions, although this percentage will increase, but, do directly affect the numbers mentioned. I think that the same people end up with the same coins, at relatively, the same prices. Pretty simple, non-event, to me.
Ps. ...and 18%, even in the best of light, seems way less than desireable, given user friendlier internet bidding (forgetting all the extra juice)

Merc

Proof Mercury dimes and Walkers have been very hot the last 2 years. In 1999 and 2000 I bought some PF65 PCGS Proof Merc for $125 each. Now they are in the $300 range. The greysheet constantly shows plus signs. Why are they going up? I don't think new collectors are buying them. Who is pushing the prices up so fast?

CYBERKEN

I watch comments on "hot" markets with great curiosity. But I try not to get too caught up, as trees really don't grow to the sky.

A three-year bear market in stocks chased a lot of $$ into residential real estate, and that may have peaked. Bullion has done well, but it's-let's face it-boring.

So the coin market is seeing some flight money. That has been made easier by improvements in the Internet, as well as grade certification. 15 years ago, there might have been a bump for a few months. Now, the increased activity may well last a little longer.

What's more important is that in any era when people are drawn to rare coins, some % will stay, as collectors. Add to the increased interest initiated by the US Mint coming alive after a long dead-and-buried marketing period, and the hobby may have a good LONG TERM future, even after the current fever wears off.

The coin market, IMO, benefits from spikes to a real extent, even after they subside...

rainbowroosie

I'm headed for the nearest bar to order two doubles --- I must need a drink because I agree with truthteller!!!! Well, there is a first for everything!