Grading Options--10 years from now?

Galveston

From an economic (piece of the pie) mentality, my thought is that one company, most likely PSA will be getting 50-70% of the business. And two other companies will be fighting for the rest. There is not enough room for a bunch of players.
I also think PSA may eventually go to half-grades.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more consolidation. I could see PSA or GAI buying out one another. I can't picture a merger.

jrinck

My timeline for the near future:

2004: CU buys all shares in the company and returns private. All overhead required for being a public company is dropped, including superfluous executives and their salaries. The company vows a "Back to Basics" approach.

2004: After the privatization of PSA, SGC and PSA join forces and retain the PSA name.

2005: GAI, struggling since inception, exits the card grading business and focuses solely on memorabilia verification. PSA/DNA will remain the leader in that business, however, but GAI will build a strong brand name.

2006: Beckett disbands grading efforts after three years of sequential quarterly decline in grading revenue. They vow a "Back to Basics" approach and focus their effort on a comprehensive price guide system that includes raw cards and even graded cards from the major grading players left standing.

2011: Millions of cards that, in the early 2000's, were considered not worthy of being graded, now seem worthy in the marketplace, and a boom in grading continues for the next several years, resurrecting an industry suffering from a deep three year recession.

1420sports

Will we still HAVE baseball in ten years?

mrc32

Hey Jrink!

Where will my Cisco stock be in 2006? Could you ask that crystal ball?

Only kidding

Wabittwax

I think a merger between PSA and SGC would be a good thing. There standards are about the same and it would help them fight off GAI and BGS. I agree that BGS will fall off eventually. They don't know how to spot altered cards and that will eventually kill them.

RedHeart54

The only thing that appears to be giving GAI credibility is the pack grading. I doubt they could sustain themselves on that alone. The question is whether PSA could get into that market. If GAI disbanded, though, do you think Mark Murphy would just start his own pack grading company?

Wabittwax

I really like the pack grading idea. Just to have an "expert" look at the pack to see if it has been opened is well worth the increased cost of the pack. I've been burned too many times.

PistolPete

I think the grading pack idea will fall out over time with the really old stuff (tobacco packs) since people will realize the big picture. Is it worth spending $800-900 for a pack that might contain a near mint common or taking that money and buying a PSA mid grade Ty Cobb or a bunch of PSA low to mid grade HOF players like Lajoie/Johnson/Mathewson/Speaker?