Need some help with vintage common prices
SportsCardMan
Posts: 49 ✭
I have set up a spread sheet to figure up a common's true value based on its population in 8 and 9. I am real happy with my results. The one problem I am having is determining the premium (if any) based on number of cards in a higher grade.
Example: 1969T Baseball
#59 Jay Johnstone 8 - 8's & 2 - 9's
#63 Jim Hickman 8 - 8's & 5 - 9's
Are Johnstone's 8's worth more than Hickman's 8's because Johnstone only has 2 - 9's compared to Hickman's 5 - 9's?
Does fewer cards in a higher grade make the lower grades more valuable? If so, how much more?
My thought is yes. But I have not been able to come up with a formula to determine just how much more.
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Bert
Example: 1969T Baseball
#59 Jay Johnstone 8 - 8's & 2 - 9's
#63 Jim Hickman 8 - 8's & 5 - 9's
Are Johnstone's 8's worth more than Hickman's 8's because Johnstone only has 2 - 9's compared to Hickman's 5 - 9's?
Does fewer cards in a higher grade make the lower grades more valuable? If so, how much more?
My thought is yes. But I have not been able to come up with a formula to determine just how much more.
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Bert
0
Comments
tradelist
Don't discount the 'timing is everything' saying. One example of this is when I listed a 1973 PSA 9 common (medium pop) first at $19.99, then at $14.99 and got no sales. Then on free listing day I listed it again at $12.99 and it ended up closing at $45! Timing is everything.
I am using the premise that the SMR for a common is the average price for the average common with an average population. I don't card what someone actually pays for the card. I am interested in what the card is worth based on its population in a certain grade.
Uhhh Beavis, I think he said butt.
You must work for the media. Only using the part of my statement that you want!
If you are going to quote me, DO IT COMPLETLY!
I am using the premise that the SMR for a common is the average price for the average common with an average population. I don't card what someone actually pays for the card. I am interested in what the card is worth based on its population in a certain grade.
O.K. Beavis, let's find some chicks and try to score.
That sounds cool Butthead, score! score!! score!!!
You have me confused as well. When you say that you don't care what someone actually pays for the card, I don't understand how you can use the term "worth" without taking what someone actually pays into consideration.
Also, your premise that SMR is the average price for an average common is flawed. SMR is at best a very poor predictor of the average price. The problem with any pricing model is that the baseball card market is terribly inefficient. Prices fluctuate all over the board. When you add that to the fact that all cards within a certain grade are not equal (there's no such thing as an average common in a grade class with all the high end and low end cards), there's no way to come up with a formula.
Regards,
Alan
I beg to differ and my numbers are proving it. In the 1969T set, the average common has 16 - 8's and 7 - 9's. The cards that have close to those populations are bringing pretty close to $18 & $40 SMR prices. There are always going to be exceptions based on team or whatever. I think you will agree that a Roy White 9 (only 1) is worth more than a Clay Carrol 9 (Population 73). I am just working on a formula to determine how much more it is worth. My formula right now says that the Roy White card is worth about $250 and the Clay Carrol about $5.
Getting back to my original question. Is a PSA 8 card that has 10 - 8's and 3 - 9's worth more than a PSA 8 card that has 10 - 8's and 7 - 9's?
I am just trying to come up with a value based on population only.
Beavis: Yeh,yeh, place a value on this.
Butthead: That would be cool.
Beavis: Yeh,yeh, put this on your spreadsheet.
I have no idea how good your formula is. It all comes down to whether any of those guys would buy the card at that price. I would ask each of them at which price would you be a buyer of the card and at which price would you be a seller of the card to come up with some boundaries.
Using your own example:
Sales price of 1 Clay Carroll PSA 9 at almost 2 X your value
Sales Price of another with 2 bidders over 2.5 times your value
Based on these results, I feel that the Carroll PSA 9 card is probably worth around $13 wholesale and $20 retail.
Regards,
Alan
I overpaid for my Carrol. I purchased it before I ran the numbers. I will not make that mistake again. Before you say that I may not win another auction based on my formula, I just won 4 of qualitycards auctions.
Back to the question!
Are 8's, where there are no 9's, more valuable than 8's where 9's exist?
<< <i>Back to the question!
Are 8's, where there are no 9's, more valuable than 8's where 9's exist? >>
Yes. I'll use 1970 Topps Baseball for my examples:
1. With 5-8s, 3-7s, and 0-9s, this card is a perfect example. SMR in PSA 8 is $30, it sold for $223.50! Granted, it is a checklist and will be rare to find in Mint condition
2. This card has a nearly identical pop: 5-8s, 3-7s, and 1-9. SMR in PSA 8 is $10, it sold for $10.38.
3. This card is similar as well: 6-8s, 0-7s, and 1-9. SMR in PSA 8 is $10, it sold for $22.05.
If it were even remotely possible to come up with an equation to determine the "true value" of a particular card, SMR could not possibly be a part of it. It would be a very long equation with constantly changing variables, such as populations, #of collectors needing card, #of cards off the market (i.e. secured in a collector's set and not for sale or trade).
By the way, the 2nd highest bidder on the PSA 8 card in example #1 already owns the pop 1 PSA 9 cards in examples 2 and 3. Let's see any equation that figures that one out.
JEB.