Part 4...PCGS tight?

homerunhall

PCGS graders are supposed to grade according to the PCGS standards. However, the 60 to 70, 11 points at the high end of the scale is in many ways splitting hairs. It's a tough thing to do consistently. The PCGS grading line flucuates a little from time to time. I believe we may have been a little tight at Long Beach. I saw a lot of coins and I was shown some downgrades from dealers I trust.

I also believe that the grading wasn't anywhere near as bad as the most vocal complainers think it was. Like most things in life, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Grading is subjective and the application of any grading standard will flucuate over time.

Fortunately, the market is pretty efficient and coins have a tendency to end up in the holder they belong in...usually before you ever see them. So it all works out in the end. If you buy coins that you like in PCGS holders, you should be A-OK. If you try to crossover coins and/or play the crack-out game, then you take your chances. If you make a hit...good for you. If you get a down-grade, we'll that's part of the game.

I don't understand the big concern about the crossover rate. If a person wanted coins in PCGS holders, then why don't they buy them in PCGS holders. Perhaps it's because what they really want is their non-PCGS coins to crossover to a PCGS holder. I won't buy the argument that it's too hard to buy coins in PCGS holders...DHRC spent $500,000 at Long Beach on PCGS coins...and B&M spent 6 figures and wasn't trying very hard.

One more thing on the crossover rate...I hope everyone realizes that many nice non-PCGS graded coins over say $1000 in value have already probably been tried for crossover at PCGS. When you see a coin that's not in a PCGS holder, it could very well be a coin that PCGS has already passed on.

Bottom line on Long Beach...

I believe PCGS may have been a little tight at the show. The big submitters I talked to...i.e. most of them...and I mean the guys that sent in a lot of coins, not the guys that sent in 10 coins and then complained...said it was OK on Wednesday, we were very tight on Thursday, better on Friday, and good on Saturday. I have no idea exactly how accurate this assesment is. I do believe however, that we weren't that tight on crossovers. Please note that all of these comments involve half points and a few coins in each submission...were not talking about wild flucuations, but small increments...that admittedly can have big financial implications.

One final thought...I've been looking at all the complaint coins for 90 days now. I see the coins...the ones that don't upgrade after a healthy auction purchase...the crossovers that don't work. I go into the grading room and under perfect lighting conditions I look at every single coin that dealers complain about to us. Based on what I see, I don't believe PCGS standards are too tight. 80% of the coins I look at for review shouldn't change in my mind. They just don't warrant the next higher grade. The other 20% of the coins are liners that could go either way.

I have seen only one order in the last 90 days in which I thought the dealer got killed. Frank Greenberg sent in a deal of super cherry, original California half dollars. I think there was about 18 coins. We graded them mostly 65. Frank asked me to look at them and I didn't understand the grades. I showed them to Ron Howard and said, "What are we doing here?" Ron and the other graders looked at the coins and raised something like 14 of the 18 coins. It was just a case of us screwing up for some reason. But this is the exception to the rule.

It may piss some people off and it may cause us to lose some submissions, but I have to tell you the truth and give you my honest opinion. The truth is the if a dealer sends me 10 coins to review, I usually struggle to pick out 2 or 3 coins that are worthy of showing to the graders. The other 7 or 8 coins out of the 10 are usually "no ways." And my honest opinion is that overall PCGS grading is not too tight and my very strong opinion is that PCGS crosses nearly every coin that it should.

That's my thoughts and my opinions. I hope everyone got some insight from all of this.

David

LucyBop

Come on HepDaddy, you can tell Lucy.......

barberlover

Hi David, are we having fun yet! Les

DesertLizard

PCGS is not tight! And if they were tight it is good!

I looked at over 30 FE PCGS slabs [65s+] in LB and most were fair for the grade or just a bit below. If PCGS loosens then the mix becomes more marginal slabs and that's bad for pricing. Why would I spend 65 money for a 64? Even in PCGS!! I am identifying just one series but there are others.

Mr. Hall, PCGS is doing just right.

Joshiah

Did I miss something here????????????


PS please read my thread I really want to know the answers.

Lakesammman

Anything to do with crabs???

Dahlonega

Most coin dealers and collectors I know are so tight when they blink their foreskin jumps. Tight is a virtue inconsistency is not...sounds like enough reasonable doubt exists that Mr. Hall should consider a double blind study and determine if their really is a problem.

jamesfsm

Deleted by the lawyers??

jamesfsm

WOW, I got my 950th post here! Do I get grading coupons??

mdwoods

I love it, keep it coming. mdwoods

clackamas

>>>raised something like 14 of the 18 coins

Jesus thats would have been a $7000 hit to someone who was not on a first name basis to you. That's unreal! Do you think that perhaps he is not alone?

Legend

Everyone has their own side to the strory!

"I believe PCGS may have been a little tight at the show" Thats ALL I wanted to hear.

one from DHRC, he said he couldn't find coins either. Sure, when you can't find what you want, you buy other stuff to fill the void. I'll bet thats how DHRC spent $500,000.00.

"said it was OK on Wednesday, we were very tight on Thursday, better on Friday, and good on Saturday. I have no idea exactly how accurate this assesment is." Not true about Wed, but a fair statement.

"If a person wanted coins in PCGS holders, then why don't they buy them in PCGS holders. " Grade coins right or cross them and then yes, we all could buy PCGS coins.

This was a VERY one sided assessment by David. If PCGS really is that darn good, then why do I see so much crap in auctions? PCGS is good, but not perfect! No matter what kindof spin they make, I stand by my comments they were ultra tight at LB. And yeah, I'm one of those vocal "little" submitters.PCGS should be greatful I'm trying to support its product. I'm complaining because there is no way they are being consistant right now, and there is a severe lack of their product.

dorkkarl

biggest insight i got was when you said "Grading is subjective and the application of any grading standard will flucuate over time". i see this as validation of the old adage that "grading is an opinion", & there is no right or wrong. it's the 1st time i've seen you mention this publicly.

you could do much toward clearing up the idiotic "too tight / too loose" arguments by promoting that statement more often.

far, far too much time on this forum is spent by quibblers complaining about "this looks overgraded", "this was undergraded", "i don't agree w/ the grade", blah blah blah.

GET OVER IT! grades are SUPPOSED to be OPINIONS. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A "RIGHT" OR "WRONG" GRADE!

K S

IrishMike

karl I personally care very little about slabbing companies, but you expect a more accurate opinion from them then you the average dealer. At FUN I spotted a case of IHC's all slabbed by PCGS, all graded 64 Red. It was one of the nicest sets I have ever seen, how welly they matched up (there was no 77).Shylock, Lakesammmam and I viewed it, and picked out a number of coins that were definitely 65 reds, and the owner pointed out one or two more that he thought might make it. My point is, 3 long time IHC collectors and the dealer/owner all agreed that the same coins were closer to 65's, most were not only close but middle to high end.

This is not a complaint or whining its an observation. This is how I learned how to grade mint state cents, by going to shows and looking at them. I don't expect them to be 100% consistent, but those who claim consistency isn't important, who are you kidding? How else are we to learn how to grade? As coinguy had pointed out any written material is just a beginning. The grading companies owe us consistency.

For those of you who abhor crack outs, if you were the owner of that IHC set would you resumbit them or leave them hoping they would get 65 money when you sell them?

Gilbert

IrishMike,

I have a question regarding one of the statements you made. It is honestly submitted only to clarify my understanding of what is actually sought. You stated:

"My point is, 3 long time IHC collectors and the dealer/owner all agreed that the same coins were closer to 65's, most were not only close but middle to high end."

My question is: Were these technical 65s or is it your contention they are coins worth 65 money, and therefore, should be slabbed 65?

Bulldog

TTT

TAP444

No matter what Hall said not all the coins are in pcgs holders
so you have to buy them in other holders and try to cross
otherwise the finest set listed in pcgs holders is not even
close to the finest set out there.
Tim

dorkkarl

<< <i>karl I personally care very little about slabbing companies, but you expect a more accurate opinion from them then you the average dealer. >>

irishmike, not trying to quibble, but i think a better distinction for me is, i expect a "reasonable" opinion from a plastic co. i expect the same from a real "dealer". someone who can't give me a reasonable opinion is no dealer, but a dealer wannabe. just my worthless opinion.

a grade is an opinion, end of story.

i couldn't give a rat's rear-end what pcgs's standards are, the only standards i care about are ana standards.

if you don't agree w/ a slabed grade, it does not mean your wrong, it does not mean the slabed grade is wrong. it means your opinions differ. as for me, i estimate that i agree w/ pcgs about 85% of the time, & my disagreements split about equal between over & under graded.

K S

Legend

Reprinted from another thread:
Heard that my name was being used here, so I thought I better check it out.......

First of all, let me make it perfectly clear that neither myself nor Richard Melamed work for Heritage any longer. Richard has been gone for a year, and I have been gone for nearly three years.

I think that David makes some valid points here. Some dealers will complain no matter how you grade the coins, many "crack-out-artists" are simply gamblers hoping that the grading services screw up, and some of us actually know what we are doing. I think that the majority of people who really know what they are doing don't complain - they know that it does no good.

Recently, I did make a complaint to David, the only one I have ever made directly to him since becoming a PCGS authorized dealer. It concerned the results of grading at the last PCGS dealer invitational. My results were:

0 for 15 for crossover
0 for 4 for regrade/designation review
2 for 62 submitted raw, with 19 downgrades, including 3 two pointers!

The coins submitted were selected by Richard and myself. Didn't David just say we had "world class grading skills"?

The gist of David's reply to me was that what is or isn't undergraded is subjective and that he would be happy to take another look. Since I was properly disgusted at this point, I didn't take David up on his offer to take another look, so I cannot say what that result would have been. I did, however, take the three coins that I believed in the most and showed them to him at the FUN show. They went through the grading review process and all came back the same. All three coins subsequently graded a point higher at NGC, then two crossed to PCGS, and the third was never submitted for crossover as the customer prefers NGC.

I guess the point of all this rambling is that when two graders with "world class grading skills", who never complain, get these kind of results, perhaps PCGS should pay attention. Instead, I felt "blown-off"and patronized. But, hey, I'm a big boy. I break out a lot of coins and know the game.

In my opinion, PCGS has a problem and they are not addressing it. The argument that NGC is overgrading all the coins and that they don't meet PCGS standards is pure BS. I can't get a decent crossover rate, but I can break the coins out and get the same grade, so how are they overgraded? I'm a "world class grader", but my PQ+ coins are 1/3 downgrades? The truth is, if I had to rely on PCGS grading to make a living over the last few months, I would be a hurtin' kind of guy. Here's the best example I can make. Six months ago, I was spending approximately the same amount in grading fees per month at both PCGS and NGC. Today, I have 178 coins with a cost of $146,758 at PCGS for grading, crossover, etc. And, today I have 1380 coins with a cost of $1,290,816 at NGC. Why, when I can get more for many PCGS coins, would I do this? DUH!

So that's my two cents worth. Flame away, because I know that some of you hate us "crack-out artists".

-------------------------
Mike Storeim
Numismatic Professionals, LLC

WANNABEDEALER

So how many of those coins that you and Bowel Movements bought were recently ungraded coins. that will be recycled through other sources for upgrades. How many mistakes did you buy back? Did the 1927-S in 64FH you bought in auction at Fun get removed from the population report, while the coin was a super pq 64 it was not close to a full head. Or did you bury another unsuspecting sucker in your mistake.

LucyBop

another wannabe hiding behind a computer screen hurling insults..... wannabe!

stman

Lucy, so Mean!!!

roadrunner

I spent much time talking to that dealer with the PCGS 64 red Indian set. He knew many coins were undergraded. Many were graded a while back, cannot recall the details. Just another instance of the grading slipping over time. He knew they had to go back someday for "today's" grades.

I like HRH's comment about how probably ever current NGC coin has been tried for cross at PCGS. And if it's still in an NGC holder it is likely somewhat inferior to the PCGS product. What elitism and meandering crapola. NO further explanation is needed.

Contrary to Dorkarl's opinion I believe there is a right or wrong grade for each coin. And in many instances you cannot get it.
If you had a board of 10 or even a 100 of the world's best graders in that specific area and used an average grade. You WOULD get the REAL grade of that coin. Whether you or I would agree with that consensus is irrelevant....no matter how expert you are in your area. Unfortunately the services do not have the time or money to ensure the right grade. We couldn't afford to pay the slab fee either.
The services can only hope to get a rough approximation of that ideal. Someday, a computer might do just that. So for now, we live with 1, 2 or sometimes 3 graders looking at a coin attempting to reach a consensus.

roadrunner

Bear

I think, therefore......................................................................................................................I am.

redhott

The theory is that if enough recognized experts can reach a consensus, that consensus can't be wrong? You mean sort of like the stock market analysts who recommended ENRON???

Bear

The two major grading serviced give you approximately a l point range on the coin. You

as the collector must determine if you are at the top or the bottom of that range. You and only

you can make that assessment . Those who succesfully select the right coins, tend to do well,

both in building fine collections and in the financial rewards. We have all made our share of mistakes.

learn from every mistake and never be lulled into thinkin that a number, any number, is an absolute

measurement of quality or acceptability to you. When you go to shows, look at as many coins as possible,

ask questions, both of dealers and Forum members. An honest dealer with which you can build

a relationship, can be invaluable in helping you understand the differing qualities within a single

grade number. Treat that dealer with the respect their knowledge , good advice and honest dealings

have earned them.

jeffnpcb

The one item of contention is "If you want it in a PCGS holder, buy it that way" is indeed cruel and unusual punishment! IF you sit back and spend time on pop reports, collect proof cameos and deep cameos for your collection, it is indeed a difficult task to buy them all from one source!
I started my collection of proof Roosevelt dimes in Cam and Dcams. I searched and look and couldn't fill the gap in the early '50s sticking with a minimum of Pr67 Cam and Dcams. Reviewing the easiest pop reports, I knew certain dates in Dcam would be out of reach, so I had to settle with trying to stay in a common grade rating of 67. The collection is complete with over 60% being PCGS, including the highest graded Pr 67 DDO 1960{ I noticed they did just grade a cameo} and to date the only PR65Cam DDR 1963.
I submitted several NGC's and a Few ICG's to cross and only one made it with a point grade drop to a 67Cam. { NGC was 68Cam}. I didn't mind that at all because it was in the range I wanted. The others were graded Pr69Dcams, and they didn't even bother to cross, even though I requested that they could drop 2 points on them.

Basically, to make the reference to buy the coins in PCGS is almost impossible depending on the pop reports.
I just wanted to enter them into a set registry, but I'll wait for the return on some other crosses to NGC and enter them there. They do acknowledge both grading companies!

wallstreetman

David, Dont give in to these complainers or youll end up like ACG! When too many are happy with their submissions. theres a problem. When they start complaining that you over graded their coins, then lend an ear. Do you think the later will ever happen?

wallstreetman

JJacks

I buy what wallstreetman says. You need to be very, very nervous about a grading company when everyone seems to like the grades they are getting. Maybe PCGS got a bit tight for a day or 2, other times maybe they have been a touch looser. There is no way to expect 100% consistancy considering the subjectiveness of a 60-70 grading scale.

JJacks

MrEureka

Contrary to Dorkarl's opinion I believe there is a right or wrong grade for each coin

Sorry, Brian. Gotta agree with Dorkarl on this. Without a mechanism for 100% consistency, there can't possibly be a "right grade". The best we can get is a "probably right grade".

roadrunner

Redhott, sorry....forgot to put in the disclaimer that when you get those 100 dealers together for a consensus:

1. they must have consulted the grading set prior to starting
2. they must be well-rested and and in a good mind frame
3. they must be subjected to 30 minutes of light "musak" prior to
grading for a calming influence
4. be subjected to a lie detector test and psycho therapy to assess
their mental state. If any potential to lie, cheat, steal, or be
influenced by HRH is detected they are eliminated and another
grader substituted.

With a few more caveats and conditions we might be able to work out a consensus on maybe ONE coin. Let's start with the Child's
1804 Dollar and 1933 $20 Saint and work our way down. But absolutely, consensus grading can work.............

Grading fees now cost $10,000 per coin. But they are consistent and
accurate. Grading service estimated to do 50 coins per day. There is no backlog because no one can afford it except the millionaires.

roadrunner