General question on low populations

diamantedude

What exactly is the agreed upon # for a low pop card? I mean I've seen some cards from the 1960's with only 45 cards graded and some people say they are not considered "low pop" anymore. Is there a threshold # where something's not considered low pop anymore?

HECK55

I look at the number of cards submitted for that particular one. In the set I work on (53 Topps) it seems that about 25%-30% of all submitted for each card grade an 8 on the average. If you see one with a substantially lower percentage - say 10% 8's or less then I consider that "low pop" - other things may have to be considered: Like if it looks like 100 seems to be the average number of cards submitted for each particular one but the "low pop" only has 45 submitted it may not be representative of a real "low pop" card. Then again that may tell you that there are not enough centered or decent condition examples out there to warrant sending in with hopes of getting a grade worthy of the cost of grading. Seems like usually if a card appears to be a "low pop" and starts selling for multiples of SMR then the number of submissions for that card increase - sometimes rapidly! In other words - take care paying big money for a "low pop" as it may not be a "low pop" the next time you check the pop report! Hope that helps - - - Rick

waittilitstartstosmell

The agreed upon number is 4. One more than three. One less than five. Six is right out. Seven is a naughty, naughty little number.

CDC4

I would say anything above 10 isn't low anymore....I tend to believe anything above 5 is not that scarce. The cards are out there. Especially anything post 1960 for sure.

Tipem

Eight is great,Nine is fine,and the magnificent Zardoz has the over/under if you ask the right question.


Seriously,Heck55 has a good grasp on the concept and explanation.His last line is advice to live by.


Vic

brucemo

To respond very directly to the original poster, there is no magic number, because the level of interest in different sets is different.

If there are a hundred guys collecting a set in a particular grade, you get a different market reality than if there are three guys collecting it.

bruce

theBobs

<< <i>Six is right out >>

Now this is funny. Thanks for the great reference...

mikeschmidt

It really does depend on the set.

For example, in 1955 Bowman baeball set, there are currently 26 cards that have PSA 8 populations of 5 or less. To me, anything less than 8 is low pop. -- but for this particular issue, over 30% of the cards have a PSA 8 population of 9 or less. So 5 or less works for me for that issue.

Percentages do tend to work well -- assuming there is a critical mass of graded examples (Read: at least 20 on vintage issues, at least 10 on modern issues).

There are many sets out there for which there is probably not a single example that would be considered "high population", on another note...

FB

diamantedude,

The advice that you're getting is right on.

"Low Pop" can most easily be described as the lowest percentage cards graded in PSA 8 or better relative to all of the cards in the set.

Right now, for the 72 set - I'd say that anything with a pop below 8 (in PSA 8 or higher) is "low pop" considering that most cards have 25+ already graded out in 8, 9 and 10. In two years, its possible that 25 will be the magic number when 95% of the cards in the set have 100+ grades in 8, 9 and 10.

And in the end, to build on what Bruce said... If only 5 people are seriously building a 72 set in PSA 8, and the 10 toughest cards in the set have a pop of 8, the price will be a whole lot cheaper than if there are 20 people fighting for them.

JeffVN

I agree with the position that the number varies depending upon the year and set that you are talking about. If you are talking about 56 Topps, the number might be 7-10, if you are talking 1959 Topps, the number might be 3 or 4. If we look at the 59 Topps set, 48,933 cards have graded to date - 1,719 have been given a PSA 9. Right now 22 of the 34 Cincinnati Reds cards in this set have a PSA 9 population of 2 or less. By anyone's definition - LOW Pop.

waittilitstartstosmell

To respond very directly to the original poster, there is no magic number, because the level of interest in different sets is different.

Everyone needs to stop lying immediately. At the last National convention, a decision was handed down that in order to qualify for low pop status, the population had to be 4. (unless a particular card had ever been submitted by WIWAG. In which case, the magic number was 8)

This board is supposed to be about getting accurate information. Every senior contributor to the board knows the answer is four! You people make me sick! It's becoming impossible for new collectors to understand the truth about low pop cards. Now come clean with the truth about the magic number being 4.

SKINSFAN

bruce hit it on the head take 55 all americans the orourke has a pop of 11 the toughest card in the set the wojo 13 11 and 13 seem like a lot to be called a low pop but when 20 + people just on the reg alone not counting the unregisterd sets the demand for the card is far more then amount avl so i would call it a low pop. i think that is true meaning of a low pop is there more people collecting the set then cards avl.

goodriddance189

it is all relative to the old adage of supply and demand. as long as the supply is less than the demand (no matter how high the pop is) i'm sure it will still be considered "low pop"

waittilitstartstosmell

it is all relative to the old adage of supply and demand. as long as the supply is less than the demand (no matter how high the pop is) i'm sure it will still be considered "low pop"

You obviously did not attend the National. Low pop has absolutely nothing to do with supply and demand. The last time I saw a more rediculous statement was when Mike Wentz was still an authorized board member. Even he will tell you that the number is 4. Of course, most cards in SGC holders have populations less than 4 (which is why they are so valuable).

goodriddance189

no i did not attend the National. but if a given card has a pop of 12 (making it not a low pop according to your standards) in 8, and there are say 20 people trying to put a set together, the demand will outweigh supply, therefore creating a high price. on the other hand, if a certain card has a population of 2 or 3, if no one is chasing these cards it doesnt appear that it is a low population card. maybe i am talking more about selling price, but if no one gives a damn about given card it doesnt matter what the population is. i am sure you learned this back in high school just as everyone else did

waittilitstartstosmell

i am sure you learned this back in high school just as everyone else did

I did not graduate from high school. But they didn't have a class on graded baseball cards.

The dealers at the National decided that 4 was the number. I think you're just trying to take advantage of your scholastic achievements to confuse the issues. Just because you're smarter in terms of economics, doesn't change the fact that the low pop cutoff is 4.

goodriddance189

well i went to a private school where Baseball Card Collecting 101 was one of the electives. and if you failed the midterm you were punished by having to sort 10000 count boxes of 1988 Score commons. you know, the ones with the microscopic card numbers on the back. so there. i know what i am talking about

waittilitstartstosmell

i know what i am talking about

Then stop making stuff up about supply and demand when you know full well the answer is 4. I do not to be forced to take legal action.

goodriddance189

my lawyer took the time to go through each major set, crunch the numbers on his pocket calculator, and came up with the actual cutoff point as 4.53. we are ready and willing to take this all the way to the supreme court.

waittilitstartstosmell

As long as you admit that supply and demand have nothing to do with it, I won't be forced to sue your butt off. If you wan't to continue to show how "Not in the know" you are with this 4.53 BS, just realize that the well endowed players (like myself) are laughing at you.

goodriddance189

supply and demand have a lot to do with this. i smell a libel lawsuit coming on

Wabittwax

<< <i>I would say anything above 10 isn't low anymore....I tend to believe anything above 5 is not that scarce. The cards are out there. Especially anything post 1960 for sure. >>



That shows how really crappy the market is. The majority of the good stuff is being bought by only a few people. If you can find a "good" card that has a pop less than 10, that's not saying much for the amount of collector's in the hobby today. Imagine if there were as many collector's today as 12 years ago? You would be able to find anything with a pop under 100.

ydsotter

What about this scenario... say the card is an SP but does have a significant amount of cards graded...
for example... (this might not be the best example) say the 1967 brooks robinson... while the card is an SP... you might not say that it has a significantly low graded pop...
do we throw the SP designation out the window when the number graded isn't a low pop?
-G

sixdart

I consider the entire 1948 Bowman football set, 108 cards, to be low population.

In PSA 8 NM/MT grade, the PSA Population Report lists only seven cards in double digits; six between 10-13 and one card over 20, the Sammy Baugh's rookie at 23. The cards considered scarce from this issue are the series III SPs, however, they fall within the same population range as series I and series II. Is this a statement regarding the SPs are just as common, or are the commons just as scarce? The PSA 8 NM/MT common SMR is $75 and the SP common SMR value is $220.

Although the 1948 Bowman Basketball set is smaller, containing 72 cards, nearly half show a double-digit population. There is a significant increase in SMR value vs. football.

MickeyMantle

Less than 10.

toppsgun

All the cards I need are low pop.

All the cards I already have are high pop.

Any questions?

Dhjacks

Red Bull is high pop. Diet Pepsi is low pop.

AlanAllen

Sixdart, check out the pops for 1962 Fleer football - three cards out of 88 with a double-digit pop. With at least 5 people trying to build the set, plus player and team collectors, you could call 90% of the set low pop.

Joe