My predictions for the next 30(!) years.

MastaHanky

Tell me if this sounds reasonable.

For the next five or ten years, we will see some minor ups and downs in the prices of coins in general.

After ten years, the price of coins is going to skyrocket. Think 1989.

The prices are going to stay high for about 15-20 years after that, and then suddenly tumble WAY down.

Why all this?

Because in ten years, baby boomers will be hitting retirement age. I figure a lot of them will start to devote time to their hobbies that they could not devote before, not to mention the extra money they'll have freed up.

After 20 years or so, the baby boomer generation is going to start moving on. Will their kids continue their newly inherited collection? I'm guessing in most cases not. A flood of collections will be hitting the market all at once.

Furthermore, I don't know how much coin collecting my generation is doing...I don't know if there will be enough of us to pick up where the older ones among us will be leaving off.

Thoughts?

danglen

I agree that we will see a boom over the next ten to twenty years, but not for the same reasons. According to US Mint estimates, there are 139 million people collecting the States Quarters. Many of them are kids. If over the next ten years, 99 percent of them lose interest in the hobby, it still leaves us with a pool of 1.39 million new collectors. If ninety percent of them never develop into "serious" collectors, we still have 139,000 new ardent enthusiasts collecting coins. As these young people get out in the workforce and have disposable income to spend on their hobby, prices will shoot up because the supply of coins will diminish. I can see a nice AH Kennedy bringing upwards of $10.00 before this is all over (just kidding, Russ)

redhott

Yes, sounds reasonable, but I think aliens from another planet will come and take all our coins for their survival, and we'll all be collecting buttons instead of coins.

Bear

Redhott, Can you recommend which buttons will be in most demand?

redhott

Bear
marshmellow, with honey inside

dan1ecu

As it is with the stock market, I think it’s risky basing supply/demand predictions on demographics. All of the baby boomers won’t die at the same time; therefore, a very sudden increase in supply is unlikely. It’s possible that the rate of new collectors coming into the hobby will be equal to or higher than the rate of older collectors passing on.

Immigration is also a variable. Maybe many young people will become U.S. citizens over the coming decades. If so, the number of coin collectors won’t necessarily decrease when the older generation starts to die off.

I think that there are just too many variables to make accurate predictions, although it would be nice if we could...

Dan

leothelyon

<< <i>Yes, sounds reasonable, but I think aliens from another planet will come and take all our coins for their survival, and we'll all be collecting buttons instead of coins. >>



Most likely the buttons off out shirts. If they take our coins away, us old farts will be collecting dust.

Do you think money will still be around by then. I thought we were all supposed to get bar codes tatooed
onto our foreheads.

Leo

redhott

geez Dan, now you went and done it

you jinxed us baby boomers

now we're all gonna die at the same time for sure

crap, and I'm not done with my collection yet, either

Bear

Remember when the US office of the Budget projected trillions of dollers

in surpluses as far as the eye could see. You can see what happens

to any long range prediction. Fron Trillions in surplus we appear now to have

trillions in defecits as far as the eye can see. What a turn around.