Finally...a post full of thought and hard data.....a guaranteed investment???

Monstavet

Hopefully this works, it is data from an Excel worksheet. Let me know if it gets messed up or you would like the original file.
Someone was complaining that there are few posts with worthy content...I don't know if this qualifies, but here goes:

A guaranteed investment?!?!?!
Is there such a thing?!?!?!
In the world of Numismatics?!?!?!?!
Maybe there is!
The simple answer: Buy odd year proof sets! So, buy lots and lots of 2003 clad and silver proof sets when they come out later this year! You almost can't go wrong!

Below is data on proof sets, their issue price and current selling price (these may change by a few cents depending on your source, but they are pretty close to right). I did not weigh in # of sets made because frankly, there are lots of them for every year represented. At any time, you can buy one of these sets, if you have enough money, so rarity is a non-factor.

The bottom line is this:
The average increase in value for even-year proof sets, 1990-present, is $9.22
The median increase in value for even-year proof sets, 1990-present, is $5.05.

The average increase in value for odd-year sets, 1990-present, is $50.71
The median increase in value for odd-year sets, 1990-present, is $44.50

If you had purchased one each of Even Year sets, at original issue price, and you sold them all today, you would have a tidy profit of $77.85....not bad

If you had purchased one each of Odd Year sets, at original issue price, and you sold them all today, you would have a whopping profit of $557.85 WOW!!!

BUY 2003 PROOF SETS! BUY 2003 SILVER PROOF SETS! THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
I gladly accept 10% commission on all profits, and am not responsible for any losses.
PM for payment address!

Was that interesting enough???


Issue $ Current $ $ Increase % Increase
1990 $11.00 $17.00 $6.00 55%
1991 $11.00 $25.00 $14.00 127%
1992 $11.00 $12.50 $1.50 14%
1992 Sil. $21.00 $16.50 -$4.50 -21%
1993 $12.50 $16.25 $3.75 30%
1993 Sil. $21.00 $36.00 $15.00 71%
1994 $12.50 $21.75 $9.25 74%
1994 Sil. $21.00 $40.00 $19.00 90%
1995 $12.50 $57.00 $44.50 356%
1995 Sil. $21.00 $100.00 $79.00 376%
1996 $12.50 $16.00 $3.50 28%
1996 Sil. $21.00 $54.00 $33.00 157%
1997 $12.50 $62.00 $49.50 396%
1997 Sil. $21.00 $93.00 $72.00 343%
1998 $12.50 $37.00 $24.50 196%
1998 Sil. $21.00 $36.00 $15.00 71%
1999 $19.50 $54.00 $34.50 177%
1999 Sil. $31.95 $180.00 $148.05 463%
2000 $19.50 $23.50 $4.00 21%
2000 Sil. $31.95 $37.00 $5.05 16%
2001 $19.50 $44.00 $24.50 126%
2001 Sil. $31.95 $105.00 $73.05 229%
2002 $19.50 $20.00 $0.50 3%
2002 Sil. $31.95 $35.00 $3.05 10%

Man, that is a lot of numbers!

Monstavet

Hmmm....some formatting problems with the data...I will work on that...any suggestions?

mbbiker

That must have taken alot of time. Very intersting, i may have to buy some 2003 PF sets. It would be the only other pf set in my collection the only one i have is a 1984 (birth year)

Monstavet

Perhaps more interesting....why? why? why? Do people like odd years more than even? What does it all mean? It is really interesting to me, that consistently, without exception, odd year proof sets dominate their even year partners for increase in value.
There is no correlation to availability.
I have no idea why they go up so much!
It is a slow day at work! LOL

Spinynorman

I noticed that trend too, but I'm sure we're not the only ones. I think with the run-up in prices this year that there will be plenty of sets sold in 2003, just like in 2000. If the 2003s don't move much, then maybe 2004 will be a slower year and those will take a run.

Monstavet

But, I don't think that reasoning works for 2001. Many people bought sets in 2000, 2001, 2002 hoping to see similar increases to 1999....but only 2001 has increased...and dramatically. 2001 silver sets are now the second most expensive...and its not because nobody bought them.

TWQG

I think the 02 Silver Proof sets are more like $50 now. Great analysis.

DHeath

The 95 and 97 sets were not ordered in sufficient volume by dealers after the abysmal customer response to the 92-94 sets, and if memory serves, the mint limited the # of sets customers could purchase to three per customer sometime during the 95-97 time period, causing dealers to not inventory many sets. Also, you have the 99 1st year set for State Quarters. Kick out those 3 sets and look at the data again. I believe the numbers will make more sense.

Monstavet

I could be off on the '02 prices...they are subject to daily changes since they are the newest.

So what is up with the 1992 silver sets...the only set to be worth less than issue price of all these sets?!?! Is it grossly undervalued? Or is it the only one that is priced correctly? And don't tell me it is because there were more minted...that is a bunch of crap. None of these sets are rare.

Monstavet

I was waiting for someone to try and say that those 95, 97, 99 sets were somehow different....but are they really? Whether dealers inventoried them or not...and that restriction was only for 99 if I recall correctly...they are still readily available, at any time, any day of the week. None of the prices on those sets would qualify as statistical outliers. I refuse to have 25% of my data kicked out! I won't stand for it!!!

No explanation for 2001 there....and if that restriction was in place for 95 and 97, then it was also in place for 96 and 98, so why are they priced low?

Spinynorman

That was my point. 1999 was a hot year, so more sets were sold in 2000. 2000 didn't move so people were more reluctant and purchased less sets in 2001. In 2002 the the 2001 sets took off and the 2002 sets are starting to. I think because of this that there will be more 2003 sets sold. If the 2003 sets don't move (like the 2000s), then I think less will be purchased in 2004 again and the cycle will repeat.

IrishMike

The mint underestimated demand for 1999 sets, I believe the number was 750K. Demand drove the prices up sharply and dealers seeing this over ordered 2000 sets which did not sell. As a result of not being able to sell 2000 they ordered fewer 2001 sets, thus creating another shortage hence prices are up for 01 sets. A glut of sets were ordered for 02, again causing prices to remain static. Only if dealers do not order large quantities of 03's will prices appreciate.

Edited to add: large quantities of 95 and 97 sets where shipped over seas creating the shortage here.

Monstavet

We could analyze this to death! Was that overseas addendum a joke? Sounds like something from an earlier era..."the price of silver in the US versus the price of silver in other parts of the world...led to a great sucking sound (a la Ross Perot) as the proof sets were evacuated from the mainland....much like silver dollars in the early 1800s...

Keep it simple guys....odds just do better than evens!

Would you like to hear how I choose which stocks to buy?

IrishMike

No it is not a joke, they were sold by the thousands over seas.

Monstavet

Did not know that....why those two years in particular? Why not others? Does this mean that Euro sets, being sold here by the thousands are really the thing to collect? Why Yes! Euro sets ending in odd numbers, 2003! Perfect!

And I would still point out, that you can buy one of these sets any time, day or night, 7 days a week on the internet, or walk into any coin shop and buy them, often as many as you like. So even if they were rare in 1995, or 1997, when they were shipped overseas by the boatload, they are back and readily available now. So why pay so much for them? Simple. People like odd numbers better!

IrishMike

A couple of years ago I was reading an article about proof sets, I don't remember the whys of the things being shipped overseas, the comment I do remember is that they were bringing a premium in relationship to the 96 sets. If you check the mintages the 96 set is lower than either the 95 or 97 so it is not the quantity minted. Why the market existed overseas, I honestly don't remember.

supercoin

Interesting phenomenon! It'd be more accurate though if you calculated the annualized return on each set.

PS -- The only way I know of to get around the formatting problems is to post a GIF image instead.