When should you ignore the trends?

dan1ecu

There are certain cases where a knowledgeable collector will be willing to pay over and beyond the trends for a coin. An example might be a Chain cent that is problem free (no rim problems, smooth planchet, good color). A coin like that might command a multiple of what the current trends are.

Can you think of other examples where a particular coin is worth more than the trends? What qualities make it so?

Dan

HoosierDaddy

Dan, another coin that seems to bucking the trends is the 32-S Washington. I have been unable to locate it in a F to VF for trend price. When I do find the coin, it is usually a minimum of $10 over trend price, and I have seen it as much as $25 over. The reason in my opinion is the state quarter program brought new persons into the hobby, who then put a lot of pressure on the set trying to collect the entire run. I think that the wave has passed, but the greysheet still had the lusted + after the listing each time...

airplanenut

If a coin is toned, all bets are off... also Pop 1 or PR/MS70 coins, as the registry demand is making them incredibly expensive as a few guys with endless pockets compete to have the best set.

Jeremy

AbesNeighbor

I would be careful with any coins accelerating in value that are gold and silver right now. I wouldn't believe all those predictions of gold going to $850 and ounce and silver to $10.00.

It may happen...but.... caution with what both metals have done lately. It can turn on a "Dime".

dwood

Evidently tone has nothing to do with trend, and no discernable basis of value other than what each particular sale brings. I don't get it, thank God!

JoyofCollecting

I think a good example is the 1859-S dime in NGC AU55 that just sold in the Heritage LB sale is a good example. Trends is $2,400...the coin sold for about $6,300 with the juice.

There is no way that coin is only worth $2,400. You just can't find them in that kind of problem-free condition and it is likely a pop 5 coin.

In my limited experience...the coins that trade well above trends are the problem-free, scarce coins where the Trends and other published sources just can't take the time to understand a shallow market. Add one new collector looking for the issue..and in an auction...the price can go up by 40%. If you don't win, you may not see that coin again for a few years. And, the dealers that do buy and sell this stuff know what it is worth. But on the up side...they know what it is worth and are willing to pay what it is worth as well is you ever need to sell.

Lakesammman

Every red IHC worth owning will cost above trends - who's trends are you referring to, by the way??