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1970 Kellogg's Analysis
LuxuryWines
Posts: 737 ✭
One thing about the 1970 Kellogg's set that has bothered,intrigued or mystified me is the lack of submissions/availibilty of certain cards... So I decided to look at the set Populations and do some analysis on this set... For the sake of trying to keep the average number of cards graded consistent. I looked at the Hall-of-famers and Rose independently of the common cards . I looked at the following :total number of cards submitted , Total number of cards graded PSA 9 and % of cards submitted graded PSA 9. Here are the results:
Column #1 represents the card #
Column #2 Represents the total # of cards graded for that card
Column # 3 represents the total # of PSA 9's given
Column # 4 Shows the % of cards graded PSA 9 for that particular card
Common Cards
#1 #2 #3 #4
1 38 24 63%
3 42 29 69%
5 84 68 81%
6 54 30 56%
9 48 34 71%
10 41 25 61%
11 61 37 61%
14 48 33 69%
16 36 15 42%
17 43 22 51%
18 35 19 54%
19 41 17 41%
20 47 23 49%
23 47 29 62%
24 36 19 53%
25 36 18 50%
26 42 23 55%
28 36 17 47%
30 30 15 50%
31 40 27 68%
33 67 48 72%
34 66 48 73%
35 51 39 76%
36 51 31 61%
38 54 35 65%
39 71 58 82%
41 45 30 67%
42 58 36 62%
43 57 30 53%
45 59 45 76%
46 57 34 60%
48 40 29 73%
49 42 31 74%
50 78 57 73%
51 48 30 63%
53 54 31 57%
54 47 27 57%
55 60 42 70%
56 104 66 63%
57 47 27 55%
59 56 31 55%
60 46 24 52%
62 78 67 86%
63 158 128 81%
64 188 161 86%
65 65 49 75%
66 118 103 87%
67 180 160 89%
68 109 70 64%
69 57 37 65%
70 84 57 68%
73 51 35 69%
74 68 47 69%
75 49 34 69%
TOTAL 3350 2301 69%
AVG 62.0 42.6 69%
Hall of FAMERS
ROSE #2 259 124 48%
McCovey #4 225 145 64%
Seaver #7 358 228 64%
Sutton #8 140 99 71%
Mays #12 331 187 56%
Marichal #13 248 173 70%
F Robisnon #15 282 181 64%
B Robinson #21 77 42 55%
Apariccio #22 56 37 66%
Clemente #27 147 52 35%
Stargell #29 57 22 39%
Jackson #32 291 181 62%
Williams #37 221 174 79%
Banks #40 258 157 61%
Brock #44 260 185 71%
Carew #47 224 151 67%
Kaline #52 177 117 66%
Bench #58 191 80 42%
Killebrew #61 325 216 66%
Gibson #71 313 228 73%
Morgan #72 194 138 71%
Total 4634 2917 63%
AVerage 220.7 138.9 63%
So what is the point of this post with this long laundry list of numbers? Take a look closely at one group of numbers in the common cards. Numbers 16-30 not only have a much lower submission rate than the rest of the set but % of PSA 9 's given is signifcantly lower. Here is the comparison:
Commons Avg Submissions Avg # of PSA 9 % of PSA 9
Cards 16-30 39.0 19.7 51%
Rest of Set 67.9 48.5 71%
As you can see almost 2 times as many cards have been submitted for the rest of the set on Average than for cards #16-30.... And the Percentage of 9's is 20% less than the rest of the set.
Furthermore this holds true for the HOF cards :
Hall-of-famers Avg Submissions Avg # of PSA 9 % of PSA 9
Cards 16-30 84.3 38.3 45%
Rest of set 220.7 138.9 63%
In the Hall-of -famers it is even more pronounced the rest of the set has almost 3X times as many submissions as #16-30. Again the amount of PSA 9's was 18% less than for ther rest of the set.
What is extremly interesting is that this run of cards are 15 ...(or Exactly 20% of the set) Where these cards printed in 15 card sheets?
My thought on all this are as follows:
Either this group of cards were short printed (or a large quantity never made it out to the market and ended up being destroyed ala 1952 Topps Mantles) or....
There is large quantity hiding in the Zardozian vaults nestled somewhere under all those PSA graded Canseco's We may need to get Geraldo to do some investigative work here (a la Capone's Vault ) There are also rumors of cryogenically frozen In & Out Burgers but that is a subject for another post.....
Thoughts everyone...???
Column #1 represents the card #
Column #2 Represents the total # of cards graded for that card
Column # 3 represents the total # of PSA 9's given
Column # 4 Shows the % of cards graded PSA 9 for that particular card
Common Cards
#1 #2 #3 #4
1 38 24 63%
3 42 29 69%
5 84 68 81%
6 54 30 56%
9 48 34 71%
10 41 25 61%
11 61 37 61%
14 48 33 69%
16 36 15 42%
17 43 22 51%
18 35 19 54%
19 41 17 41%
20 47 23 49%
23 47 29 62%
24 36 19 53%
25 36 18 50%
26 42 23 55%
28 36 17 47%
30 30 15 50%
31 40 27 68%
33 67 48 72%
34 66 48 73%
35 51 39 76%
36 51 31 61%
38 54 35 65%
39 71 58 82%
41 45 30 67%
42 58 36 62%
43 57 30 53%
45 59 45 76%
46 57 34 60%
48 40 29 73%
49 42 31 74%
50 78 57 73%
51 48 30 63%
53 54 31 57%
54 47 27 57%
55 60 42 70%
56 104 66 63%
57 47 27 55%
59 56 31 55%
60 46 24 52%
62 78 67 86%
63 158 128 81%
64 188 161 86%
65 65 49 75%
66 118 103 87%
67 180 160 89%
68 109 70 64%
69 57 37 65%
70 84 57 68%
73 51 35 69%
74 68 47 69%
75 49 34 69%
TOTAL 3350 2301 69%
AVG 62.0 42.6 69%
Hall of FAMERS
ROSE #2 259 124 48%
McCovey #4 225 145 64%
Seaver #7 358 228 64%
Sutton #8 140 99 71%
Mays #12 331 187 56%
Marichal #13 248 173 70%
F Robisnon #15 282 181 64%
B Robinson #21 77 42 55%
Apariccio #22 56 37 66%
Clemente #27 147 52 35%
Stargell #29 57 22 39%
Jackson #32 291 181 62%
Williams #37 221 174 79%
Banks #40 258 157 61%
Brock #44 260 185 71%
Carew #47 224 151 67%
Kaline #52 177 117 66%
Bench #58 191 80 42%
Killebrew #61 325 216 66%
Gibson #71 313 228 73%
Morgan #72 194 138 71%
Total 4634 2917 63%
AVerage 220.7 138.9 63%
So what is the point of this post with this long laundry list of numbers? Take a look closely at one group of numbers in the common cards. Numbers 16-30 not only have a much lower submission rate than the rest of the set but % of PSA 9 's given is signifcantly lower. Here is the comparison:
Commons Avg Submissions Avg # of PSA 9 % of PSA 9
Cards 16-30 39.0 19.7 51%
Rest of Set 67.9 48.5 71%
As you can see almost 2 times as many cards have been submitted for the rest of the set on Average than for cards #16-30.... And the Percentage of 9's is 20% less than the rest of the set.
Furthermore this holds true for the HOF cards :
Hall-of-famers Avg Submissions Avg # of PSA 9 % of PSA 9
Cards 16-30 84.3 38.3 45%
Rest of set 220.7 138.9 63%
In the Hall-of -famers it is even more pronounced the rest of the set has almost 3X times as many submissions as #16-30. Again the amount of PSA 9's was 18% less than for ther rest of the set.
What is extremly interesting is that this run of cards are 15 ...(or Exactly 20% of the set) Where these cards printed in 15 card sheets?
My thought on all this are as follows:
Either this group of cards were short printed (or a large quantity never made it out to the market and ended up being destroyed ala 1952 Topps Mantles) or....
There is large quantity hiding in the Zardozian vaults nestled somewhere under all those PSA graded Canseco's We may need to get Geraldo to do some investigative work here (a la Capone's Vault ) There are also rumors of cryogenically frozen In & Out Burgers but that is a subject for another post.....
Thoughts everyone...???
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass... it's about learning to dance in the rain.
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Comments
I'm sitting on a Carlos May 9 right now trying to figure out what to do with it.
Your next assignment is the 1971 Kelloggs set, and with all the variations involved, this one is for your Kellogg's PhD.
I have a few hundred extra PSA graded 1971 Kellogg's cards. E-mail for price list. Looking for 1970 Topps Supers in PSA 9 too.
.............fab4.....................
I would have to disagree ... Normally you would be right ... I think the surge in the population would occur with the higher prices.... The Horlen card would be a good example of that yet how do you explain that it is $50 while other commons can regualrly be had for $15-20 on an almost daily basis? The $200 card was fueled by specualation and intense collector competition for 1 card that everyone thought would not greatly appreciate in population.... Now that it has it still sells for a healthy premium over other common cards in the set..
Also if the chances of submitting for a $150-200 sale would draw more submissions why have the Brooks Robinson Willie Stargell and Clemente been submitted at levels equal to 25-50% of the other Hall-of-fame-cards? Each of these cards would bring $100+ in an auction for a PSA 9 and $35-50 for an 8? The premium is there and little downside risk... Yet the submissions lag... I think that is the area that proves either Short prints... or someone has a large stockpile ofRAw Kellogg's and is controlling thre market....
Your theory about a large group of '70 Kellogg's cards being dumped in the ocean along side the '52 Topps issue is interesting, but alas incorrect. It's not well documented, but in the early 1970's during the height of the NASA program a large number of '70 Kellogg's cards were brought to the moon (to insure their safety in case of nuclear war). Another large portion of them were sent into outer space in the hopes that one day aliens would find them and realize that there truly was intelligent life (superior in fact) in the universe.
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Robert
Any high grade OPC Jim Palmer
High grade Redskins (pre 1980)
Also, Lux, I found some more 69 decals, I'm going to list them as well.
I have a few hundred extra PSA graded 1971 Kellogg's cards. E-mail for price list. Looking for 1970 Topps Supers in PSA 9 too.