Your predictions: What major events/changes will occur over the next ten years in coin collecting?
dan1ecu
Posts: 1,573
Do you think we’ll witness the demise of ACG and similar slabbing services?
I think that this might well happen as their reputation gets worse and worse.
Do you foresee a major bull/bear market in coins during the next decade?
I see coins keeping up with inflation, in general. Some will do better, some will do worse, but it’s not possible to know in advance what the winners will be.
Do you see the mint finding more ways to profit from coin collectors? Perhaps there will be some new, unique mint products?
I think so. If there’s money to be made, why not?
How about the formation of a “Coin Collecting Hall of Fame,” where collectors like Pittman and Eliasberg can be honored?
That would be nice. Someone would have to find the money for it, though.
Will it become more difficult to find quality coins as collectors become more knowledgeable and grow in numbers?
I can kind of see this happening already.
What are your thoughts regarding what might lie ahead?
I think that this might well happen as their reputation gets worse and worse.
Do you foresee a major bull/bear market in coins during the next decade?
I see coins keeping up with inflation, in general. Some will do better, some will do worse, but it’s not possible to know in advance what the winners will be.
Do you see the mint finding more ways to profit from coin collectors? Perhaps there will be some new, unique mint products?
I think so. If there’s money to be made, why not?
How about the formation of a “Coin Collecting Hall of Fame,” where collectors like Pittman and Eliasberg can be honored?
That would be nice. Someone would have to find the money for it, though.
Will it become more difficult to find quality coins as collectors become more knowledgeable and grow in numbers?
I can kind of see this happening already.
What are your thoughts regarding what might lie ahead?
0
Comments
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Camelot
Collectors will be scratching their heads wondering what in the HELL was I thinking?
Of that I am 100% sure.
Brian.
roadrunner
"France said this week they need more evidence to convince them Saddam is a threat. Yeah, last time France asked for more evidence it came rollin thru Paris with a German Flag on it." -Dave Letterman
It's not too far outside the realm of possibility that the mint will listen to the collectors and politicians who want better looking coinage and go back to the deeper relief, more artistic coins - for mint and proof sets only - and keep the ugly slugs we spend for spending. Face it - regardless of the grade, there's really not much potential for the new stuff because of the sheer numbers made. If they kept making the circulating crap by the truckload, but made a somewhat limited number of high-quality coins for the mint and proof sets, they would sell like ice-blue fire!
Partially because the current mint sets are nothing more than typical circulating coins in a ten cent envelope, and partially because the mint's quality control over their sets (both mint and proof) are currently horrid, I think the writing is on the wall for a development in this basic direction. Give the public what they need, and give the collectors what they want, all at the same time. Win, win, win.
The Lincoln cent store:
http://www.lincolncent.com
My numismatic art work:
http://www.cdaughtrey.com
USAF veteran, 1986-1996 :: support our troops - the American way.
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
2) The Fed's new fear of deflation will lead to several years of mild inflation, ending only when the nation's debt levels have been adequately deteriorated, and the creditor class disempowered (It is the role of lenders' capital in any free economy to be consumed by the creators of innovation). This necessary inflation will drive a bubble in the coin market, possibly matching 1979/80 (but much more rapid to spike and fall due to the Internet, and certification services). When this bubble heats up, shrewd collectors will sell out, and buy back after the bubble bursts.
3) Coins that never recover from the bubble:
Certified "moderns", of which there is a virtually infinite supply.
Coins rendered circulated by artificial toning. MINT STATE = MINT STATE. The concept is far too simple to disappear forever
4) At the height of the bubble, the MINT will offer, for a steep premiun, proofs and business strikes in certified holders. They will hire grading experts-or contract with their own "official" service, for this purpose. The entire program will be an incredible failure, and be blamed for the bursting of the bubble.
5) The coin market will eventually provide, once again, it's most important lesson: Grade is one thing. Price is quite another.
6) Finally, despite it all, the hobby will be stronger and more popular than ever in 30 years-with millions more collectors-and true scarce and rare coins will continue to be in demand.
All, of course, JMHO...
Coin collecting will continue. Coins are like holding a piece of history.
FrederickCoinClub
more usable with the elimination of the smallest denomination(s) and the introduction of higher
denominations. This will further fuel the grass roots growth of coin collecting. Today's and tom-
orrow's newbies will continue their growth as collectors and their activities will create much
vibrancy in the markets for years. Fads will continue to come and go and those caught on the
wrong side of them may experience some loss of capital.
Coppercoins: Mint set coins are frequently unattractive coins, but these are specially made. They
are generally well struck coins and are sometimes mark free. The mint has stated numerous times
that the best coins go into these sets and the facts seem to generally bear this out. Certainly
there are some dates/MM's/denominations which are found better in BU rolls, but this is the ex-
ception.
many many many new grading services come, stay and go ...................................
a HUGE market correction in early to mid 2004
&
a bubble bursting for coins where the plastic makes up most all of the value of a coin
sincerely michael
1. the demise of slabs as we know them - to be replaced by superior technology
2. a decrease in the overall value of coins, as realization occurs that absurd prices does not bring increased enjoyment
3. burnout on the registry sets
4. franchising of large dealers, ie. "20 billion coins sold"
5. extensive redesign of circulating coinage
6. passing away of several of today's most prominent numismatists. who will take their place?
7. radical changes in grading standards
8. a large increase in foreign coin collecting
K S
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
The impetus for this will come from increased collector and dealer frustration with inconsistencies with the current grading compamies and their lack of customer service. They will be established by readily recognizable names in the coin community which will provide the credibility these companies will need to become established.
--------
Howdy from Houston...
Can't keep my eyes
from the circling skies
Tongue tied and twisted
Just an earthbound misfit,
I
">my registry set
oh yeah, conservation will become widely accepted/used, gain state-of-the-art advancements and continue to drive self-righteous originalists bonkers!!!!
al h.
<< <i>oh yeah, conservation will become widely accepted/used, gain state-of-the-art advancements and continue to drive self-righteous originalists bonkers!!!! >>
hey keets, too late!
K S
I would expect to see an expose' of the toned coined market, as more and more coin doctors/dealers vie for a piece of the lucrative pie and greed overcomes common sense in keeping the supply of "monster toned" AT'd coins low . A number of major dealers will be shown to be in cahoots with the doctors, and the resulting revelations will show that about 90% of all high grade toned coins and about 95% of other toned coins are AT. The grading services will be substantially embarassed and some with disappear. Most collectors will see the prices of their collection evaporate as "eye candy" becomes a commodity, similar to crack cocaine, but worth a lot less. The leading AT dealers/doctors will enjoy the high life, retired in the Cayman Islands and other "sunny" places. The eye candy addicts will be going through withdrawl, huddling together in their former electronic eye candy crackhouses, shuddering and shaking in disbelief (and for some, poverty).
Of course I could be totally wrong, gentlemen - I'm just a little country girl with a few toned twenty cent pieces, and what do I know?
Hope you'all have a nice day.
<< <i>Southernbelle, who are you ? I have a feeling I know you. >>
"Discretion shall preserve thee, understanding shall keep thee."
of course, most of us are not all-or-nothing types, so I predict that some aspects of what everyone has written so far will occur.
my own top predictions for the next decade:
1. The State Quarter program will continue and then conclude. this will cause some significant percentage of new collectors who are assembling sets from their pocket change, and until then had those as their only coins, to seek to buy additional, older coins for more than face value, perhaps coins that have silver in them. some subset of these will seek to complete a type set of all quarters, and perhaps a type set of all old us coins.. this will squeeze the supply of early type coins and drive up prices. The highest quality coins will do best, but even Fair and About Good 200 year old coins, if genuine, will increase in value.
2. The Registry Set programs will continue to generate interest in Quality, driving prices for the best quality coins extant. However, the supply of Top Quality coins in High Grade Slabs will continue to increase, as more previously unslabbed coins get encapsulated, and previously graded coins get put into holders with a higher number printed on them, dampening price increases for some issues and causing decreases in others. Generally the newer the coin, the more risk from "pop creep", though no issue is immune, and very old "finest knowns" or "condition census" coins may very well drop in the ranks if superior specimens from old collections surface. See below:
3. The supply of what the industry calls "fresh material" will increase as the "baby boom" of collectors starts to get older and die. We continue to hear of amazing collections that have been off the market for 20 years or more. Well, the heirs and estates may or not be collectors, a significant percentage will simply sell the coins along with the other assets when dad passes away, and those coins will become available. Most of these coins will be circulated common date silver and copper. Some will be BU rolls and nicer type collections. Some small percentage will be exquisite rare gems, previously unknown.
4. The mint will continue current collector programs, to mixed success. they will continue to learn from experience that collectors prefer attractive high relief coins to ugly low relief ones... the attractive, collectible, intrinsic value ASE, AGE, and APE programs will continue to be popular and successful. the success of the Buffalo dollar will cause other popular series to be "ressurected".
5. The mint will make significant changes to circulating coinage. it may not be within the next 10 years, but eventually, the cent will be eliminated. the nickel reverse will change for a couple of years. the dollar coin will finally be made a convenient size, probably between the size of a nickel and quarter, and will circulate widely because the one dollar bill will first stop being produced, then eventually be withdrawn from circulation. The Kennedy half dollar will stop being minted for circulation, but demand from collectors will cause it to continue to be minted for them in proof condition. All of these changes will spark additional collector interest from "the public" see below.
6. All these changes will cause significant "hoarding" of the obsolete types from circulation by the public, who will be convinced that they will someday be "worth something" over face value... much like the europeans are doing with all their countries' "old coins" these people will eventually realize that these are faaaar too common in circulated condition to demand much of a premium.. they will always have some value as interesting old pieces of metal, but Quality will continue to drive the high end market.
7. Specialized grading services, as someone mentioned, will become popular, and will increase the liquidity of specialized coins that demand a premium over their "normal" counterparts. One of these will be a company that specializes in toned coins, and describes the toning, it's degree of "originalness", the type (bag, endroll, envelope, album, etc) as well as assigns some number to it's eye appeal. Other potential specialized graders: early copper, die varieties, prooflike coins, cameo coins, the list goes on..
8. Knowledge will continue to matter. Knowledge of coins, of people, of "how it works" will continue to separate those who "do well" from those who dont. well, knowledge and acting on it.
9. because of all of the above, the internet will continue to be THE driving force of the hobby, and pretty much everything else, for that matter. It is difficult to imagine overestimating how much the internet changes EVERYTHING.
10. Coin collecting will always be popular... some times it will be more popular than others. I think we're on the upswing for the foreseeable future, because of all of the above.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
No demise to ACG, although their name may change. More grading services, not less.
Tame bull market in coins as stocks and bonds continue to stink. Minor stagflation as both Democrats and Republican presidential administrations cannot alter our economic course.
The US mint will start selling Uncirc. rolls of every denomination.
Hall of Fame? Not.
Quality coins will be hard to procure.
Platinum eagles will be discontinued - existing ones will be high dollar.
We will have inflation and a $2.50 or $5.00 coin.
Society will have clear vision of a future point where all transactions are electronic.
Businesses will charge extra for paying with cash. Remember when credit cost 4 cents extra per gallon of gasoline? The opposite will be the case in the future.
I'll have a good boat and be reeling in fish at will.
new one and five dollar bills. They may be a thing of the past if inflation takes off as
it probably will.
bob
<< <i>Some things just never change but a few are wise to the hobby and some still need to find a home.
Yep!!
<< <i>Not a major event but I'll be dead. >>
Me too probably.
See you in hell.
Ray