Interesting ebay price observations

DanC

I've been keeping track for awhile on my auctions and the prices/vs. PCGS price guide and arrived at some interesting (but probably meaningless observations)

Of the auctions where I set a reasonable, but in-the-ballpark-of-where-the-coin-should-likely-sell starting prices the results were as follows:

PCGS Price Guide price: $833.00

Ebay Actual Sales price: $402.54

Ratio: 48.3% of PCGS Price guide

The last 25 were set at $1.00 start, regardless of value of the coin:

PCGS Price Guide price: $1,965.00

Ebay Actual Sales price: $1,188.54

Ratio: 60.4% of PCGS Price guide

I'm not sure how scientific all this is, but it'd be interesting if any of the rest of you folks are stats freaks to see how that compares.

WACoinGuy

I've noticed that too. It seems more prevalent in some series than in others. For example, liberty nickels tend to sell close to PCGS prices, while bust halves seem to go for half the price. Maybe it's an indication of what's over/undervalued?

DanC

Actually - you make good point. I should have pointed out that these are all slabbed Kennedy Halves. I'm certain there's little correlation to other series in that regard - though it'd be interesting to know how other series are doing using the same yardstick.

baccaruda

thanks for sharing the info, dan. i generally use 1/3 of the price guide as a base - that's how ridiculous it is. i have paid near that guide for nice coins tho.

i think they keep the price guide at ridiculous levels to encourage people to keep submitting coins.

Toadstool1

The price guides are a joke and another way various people try to manipulate or control the coin business for their own benefit either directluy or more often than not, indirectly. A coins worth is what the market will bear on average over a specific period of time while assuming that there is nothing that would cause an abnormally high sell price such as over grading or non-disclosure of defects or other problems.

solid

I've seen that myself in numerous auctions. I'll list the coin with a starting price of
what I'd like to get and nobody will touch it. Relist a couple weeks later starting at
$1 and the final price will soar to my original price + 10-20% (or more).

I think it is a combination of getting individual bidders to want to own the coin, and
others who later see the coin has lots of bids, thus making them interested as well!

Ken

eminem

When listed at a certain price the perception is that it will not end up being a bargain. Start it at a dollar and many people will just throw up a bid and start a bidding cycle often ending up more than what the coin is worth. With slabbed coins though there is a ceiling....the price guides. Perception is the driving force on the one dollar auctions I believe.

BigD5

I think a lot of it has to do with what type of coin you are listing. I've listed items all kinds of ways, and sure I've had situations similar to what Solid described, but GENERALLY, I find that if I list a coin (the coins I'm selling) starting at $10 or so, I actually realize a price LOWER than what I would have liked. I list a good supply of half dimes and odd denomination coins. Popular series shouldn't have a problem attracting bidders, it's the odd stuff that can get killed if the right buyers aren't surfing at the right time.
A few weeks back I listed a pcgs 1913 T1 Buffalo Nickel, and the coin realized $98 (or so), and I had an NGC 1913 T1 Buffalo end last night at $125 (or so). Go figure? The pcgs coin started at $10, the ngc coin started at $115. Of course, I can list examples that have gone the other way around also. That's the first one to come to mind.
I don't think there is any true rhyme or reason to what goes on over at Ebay, just depends on who is looking at a specific time.

BigD5

That PCGS priceguide information is interesting. I've NEVER looked at those prices, and I've never had anyone comment to me that the PCGS priceguide lists your seated half dime at such and such, and you have the coin listed at such and such. I figure modern collectors are the only ones, for the most part, that take those prices into account seriously, and that's only because the darn modern coin market is so volatile it can be hard to track any kind of consistent pricing with some of that stuff. Not a bad thing, just something I noticed.

copperhead

I have to somewhat agree with BigD on this one. Actually I think it all depends on who is looking/bidding on the coin that particular day/night. A large percentage of the coins I list are "Raw" but I have found that auctions I start at $.99 usually DO NOT end at a price near what I would like to see. However, I have listed coins that I started at a price I though would be fair and they went WAY ABOVE my expectations(For example)--link I guess its one of those " GO FIGURE" type things. I think things are a liitle slow on the auction sites the past few weeks. At least they have been for me.
TAKE CARE,
AL

AbesNeighbor

I believe raw coins are the toughest to sell on E-bay---even if you have a liberal return policy. I know that I have been "Screwed" so many times by owner over grading, I just don't bid on raw coins on E-bay. That is not to say that I won't buy one at a coin show where I have a chance to really see it.

Even with a generous return program most people don't want to hassle wit returning the coin. Of course some dealers count on the fact that people won't go to the trouble to return it.

Moderns also are overpriced on the price list and sell anywhere from 35% to 45% under the CU price guide. Rarer coins seem to sell anywhere from right on the guide to 30% under. Just my observatons and my opinions.

BIGDAVE

I Find The price guide is useless for coins 1953 and up unless it is a "pcgs 70" pre 1952 it is fairly accurate

BAJJERFAN

It would be interesting to know just what sources are used to concoct the PCGS price guide; would that include eBay selling prices perhaps?
Also would you prefer that PCGS base their grade guarantee on the PCGS price guide or eBay selling prices? I guess that depends.

If you list a one ounce gold eagle on eBay for $1 even a blithering idiot can see that is a bargain beyond belief. Even at $100 it is still a great bargain. Thus the bidding frenzy begins and maintains itself as long as the coin is nice and the bidders perceive they are getting a bargain. When you start with a first bid at or near top dollar the bidders know that they have NO CHANCE to score a bargain.
One thing to look at also is the number of bidders and their feedbacks. Out of 10 different bidders I figure one has to be more knowledgeable than most and if 2 of the 10 bidders have top 20 registry sets then hey go for it.