NGC too liberal ? Stats prove it depends

nugget369

I recently read a posting from someone who had questioned a grade given to his 1923-D Saint Gaudens. He expressed concern that NGC may have been too liberal in grading his coin 65. His skepticism coupled with my own numerical curiosity were the impetus for me to conduct a statistical analysis of the entire Saint Gaudens series minus the Well Fargo hoard, to determine who really is liberal and when.
Initially I obtained the percentage of coins graded by each grading service in each grade from MS65 and above. With this data, my objective was to draw correlations relating to each grading service's relativity to each other in relation to each designated grade. The numbers speak for themselves and were obtained from current population reports provided by the major grading services.
The aforementioned 1923-D Saint must certainly be evaluated on it's own merit, however from a statistical analysis NGC's liberal propensity in the 65 grade could indeed be brought into question.
In this series NGC has designated a 65 grade 11.58 % of the time. Sounds reasonable, barely one coin in ten making the prestigious Gem designation. However compared to PCGS's 6.06 % that number is almost double or put in other words, 47.7 % of the time an NGC 65 would not make the grade at PCGS.
In the 66 grade that gap is closed with NGC actually becoming the rarer coin but only by a slim 1.09 % to 1.33 % ratio.
In the 67 grade the percentages are reversed with PCGS becoming more common, alloting a 67
.057 % of the time. NGC however has shown little mercy, grading a 67 a strict .021 % of the time.
Although these percentages are extremely low, the fact is that a PCGS Saint is 2.7 times more common than an NGC Saint in this Superb Gem grade.
My advise would be if you are interested in a 65 Saint graded by NGC, make sure the coin appeals to you because it may not be a true 65. However if it's a 67 Saint graded by NGC you likely have a rock solid Superb Gem.

LucyBop

Be Bop A Lula!

MastaHanky

You need to change your icon. I have trouble reading what you have written with that so nearby.

EDIT: Can you provide the total numbers of them certified for both companies? Depending on the number graded, the percentages may be statistically insignificant.

DCAMFranklin

I take it you believe the Populations reports to be accurate??!! Hardly. With all the crack-out and crosssing that has taken place, those numbers are hardly reliable. Sorry to pop the ol'bubble.

Dog97

I was looking up something in a Commem book the other day and Harry Laibstain was making comment on the Grant commem in 66. He said they had a big prem over NGC 66 because none of the NGC 66 would make 66 at PCGS. I found this strange because he doesn't make these kind of comparisions with any other commems although he mentions in his introduction several reasons NGC coins are graded more lenient and bring less $$. This is old info as the book was dated 1995.

JohnButlerfromLV

<< <i>My advise would be if you are interested in a 65 Saint graded by NGC, make sure the coin appeals to you because it may not be a true 65. However if it's a 67 Saint graded by NGC you likely have a rock solid Superb Gem. >>



As a former grader for PCGS, I would like to think PCGS has a stricter standard for MS 65 Saints. However, the one point that very few people discussing the subject seem to realize is the fact that the major importers of pre-1933 american gold coins from Europe prefer to give NGC first shot on their submissions. Hence, they get to see a large share of the fresh European material before PCGS. Why would the submitter want to cross the NGC MS65 coins to PCGS MS65 coins when they are essentially worth the same as PCGS coins? One of the major importers is located around 30 miles away from PCGS offices, yet gives NGC first shot. The main reason is that they arrive from Europe on the east coast which is the coast that NGC is located. Why carry the material an extra 2800 miles to get the same grades.
Essentially these gold pieces are a glorified form of investing in gold bullion. They were originally made as a bullion coin for foreign exchange and they survive in sufficient quantities for most dates that there is no need to pay huge premiums for this type of material.

geb209

<< <i>As a former grader for PCGS, I would like to think PCGS has a stricter standard for MS 65 Saints. However, the one point that very few people discussing the subject seem to realize is the fact that the major importers of pre-1933 american gold coins from Europe prefer to give NGC first shot on their submissions. >>



Hey JohnButlerfromLV, maybe you should tell this information to David Hall. Seems not too long ago he was saying that PCGS must have more conservative grading standards because it has given average lower grades. Seems he doesn't realize that it really depends on the number of high quality of coins being submitted.

Cameo CC

Good thread. To "what" good research and welcome. By the way, Great photo (icon).

Todd

izzy452

Welcome to the boards and enjoy.

Walt

Cameo CC

Just a question - does she collect coins (your icon)?

Todd

tradedollarnut

Why do we have to prove what we already have been told by NGC themselves? When Rick Montgomery left PCGS to go to NGC, it was asked on the NGC forum if NGC would then be getting tighter grading standards. The response was that Rick would have to conform his grading to NGC's standards.

Yes, NGC's standards are slightly "looser" than PCGS's. But there are nice coins in both holders and there are dogs in both holders [oops - sorry Muttman!]. Since you can't afford to buy the coin sight unseen no matter what, then don't you have to evaluate the quality of the coin against the asking price?

Which is better - almost MS65 money for a super conservatively graded 64.8 in a PCGS 64 holder or getting a discount for a slight gift 64.8 in an NGC 65 holder? Probably no diff for you and me, but if you die and your heirs go to sell your super premium 64, how much do you think they'll get from the local coin shark?

The idea of using the pop reports to prove this is ludicrous! But the fact is that PCGS being so tight on the top grades is starting to hurt their top end product. Where do the supercoins end up? In NGC 68 or 67 holders because PCGS essentially stops at 66 for classic coins. Where do the stunning eye appeal coins end up? In NGC top grade holders because PCGS grades more technically. How many people asking on Q&A why PCGS stops at 66Red for wheaties does it take to get the message across? How much more whining about grading posts does Stewart have to put here for PCGS to see what's up? [I use Stewart as an example because he can grade with the best of them!] People want their coins graded accurately, to a full 11 point unc scale. The genies' been let out of the bottle - you can't grade to the full scale for modern coinage and the short scale for classics!

JML

Every coin needs to be examined, prior to purchase, in my opinion.

None of the major services, as has been illustrated by the threads on the boards, are perfect. Even Accugrade coins can be acceptable (not many mind you). I have seen many PCI coins undergraded.

Only purchase coins which meet your specifications. It is your money and your collection.

CarlWohlforth

I never did understand how all those Saints got graded 65 in the first place. I purchased a gem $2 1/2 dollar Liberty then a near gem $10 Lib then started looking for Saints in 65. I was expecting a similiar amount of bag marks, that is almost none. No way! The "gem" Saints had tons of bag marks.

Naturally a larger coin is a bigger target and much easier to mark. I guess that is the way they are graded but I was surprised. I looked at a lot of Saints and didn't find one with the look I expected. You live and you learn...

braddick

I like NGC because big gold coins look better against a white plastic background (vs clear).

-That's me wearing my retard cloths (inside out, by the way) too- but it works for me.

tradedollarnut

ttt

Android

TDN mentioned grading to conservatively. This is something that many people who post here sometimes forget. I can't tell you how many PCGS graded coins I've purchased that are so UNDERGRADED, I've felt like I was stealing from the dealers selling them. These same dealers also have had many overgraded PCGS coins in their cases as well. Most go unsold because they are living and dying by the grade inside the plastic, and it's associated "premium" afforded to PCGS slabs. They won't budge on the price of the inferior coins.

And the game continues....

Andy

tradedollarnut

Baseball: in series with a limitless supply of coins in whatever holder or quality you wish to collect, you may be right. But anybody used to that who then steps into the world of collecting coins before WWII will be in for a rude awakening!

I may be out of touch with the average modern collector, but I think most any classic collector has experienced the need to pay a strong premium for a nice coin, or felt the need to step up and buy a nice coin in an NGC holder because they didn't know if IN THE NEXT DECADE they'd see an equivalent coin in a PCGS holder.

BTW - those feelings add a lot to the game!

ARCO

Haven't done much research, but I no longer trust NGC as a quality service like PCGS due to the half dozen or so coins recently bought in NGC slabs, that didn't cut it. Lets face it PCGS rules the slabbing universe in my eyes.

Tyler