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Rocco67Rocco67 Posts: 26
in PSA Set Registry Forum
I have recently read numerous posts on the CU forum's predicting the demise of graded cards, and the Enronesque deflation of their values. However if you follow the market closely, both on e-bay and at some of the larger off-line shows and auctions you will see the opposite.

For example a 1979 Topps PSA 9 Nolan Ryan #115 just sold on e-bay for $188.50. Now granted this is unusual, but this card is a good example of the price fluctuations we have seen over the last three years. In 2000 I picked one up in PSA 9 for around $130.00 on e-Bay. I later sold it and broke even. Then at the end of 2001 I picked one up for $89.00 or so. I still have it. In the summer of 2002 I saw this card in PSA 9 going for as low as $54.00 on e-bay. Couple of weeks ago I saw one go for $125.00 or so. Now this at $188.50. Maybe it won't stay at those price levels, or maybe this is a fluke, but try to sell a share of Cisco or Enron for $188.50 and see what happens...it's not even in the realm of possibilities. To cap it off there are over 123 PSA 9 #115 Ryans with NQ's in the latest pop. report reading.

So my point is, that there is still great demand for graded cards, even after all the volatility of the economy, recession, corporate crime, and the recent slabbed card counterfitting we have seen closer to the industry. Hell the 1979 Topps Ryan would be an easy card for a WIWAG to "counterfit" slab, given the thousands of raw samples of it available.

Of course if we go to war, or if the economy does not rebound as expected we will see an extended lag on card prices, and anything else of non-necessity value...but that will be the least of our worries in those cases.

I think graded card buying within the big 3 or 4 (PSA, Beckett, SGC and GAI) is the safest bet and personally I'll stick mainly to PSA.

Comments

  • srs1asrs1a Posts: 398 ✭
    Good post Rocco. I would just add one more thing -- you don't need to look at Enron or Worldcom to see the problem. Take, for example, IBM -- in the last year it traded at $108...now it's at $78 and hit $54 in between. I wouldn't expect that fluctuations in "blue chip" cards were this large over the past year.

    Scott
    Dr S. of the Dead Donkeys MC
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    Scott:

    I've been under the opinion for a number of years that IBM's stock price ascent over the past few years can largely be attributed to an aggressive stock repurchase philosophy on behalf of management. They did not seem to be growing their business significantly, and it seemed like their cash stockpiles did not find any suitable investment vehicle but for the purchase of treasury stock. I was always pretty confident that this was an unsustainable avenue for stock appreciation. Obviously there are a lot of other factors going on -- but that is an important one in my estimation.

    Rocco:

    The graded card market has its peaks and valleys. Certain cards are flourishing whereas others are languishing. Clearly the many PSA submission specials have lowered the floors on submissions, making it more lucrative to many dealers and collectors alike to submit commons and NM/MT to MINT star cards. Once the payout ratio goes down, more cards get submitted, and PSA 8 and 9 populations rise exponentially. This is balanced by new money and players coming into the graded card game. In the current marketplace, there are still many sets and players that are hot and continue to realize very aggressive prices. Nonetheless, there are other "stars" who seem to grow stale in dealer inventory at below-SMR levels. Everything will balance out eventually (requiring a number of SMR changes, for starters), but like any marketplace, money can be made if you know what you are doing.
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • JeffVNJeffVN Posts: 322
    No doubt the graded market is cyclical - corresponding to the baseball off-season. If you pay attention, you can make some $$$ on the flucutations - but you should be prepared to loose your shirt if you bet wrong.
    I need that 69 Bench ASimage

    image
  • srs1asrs1a Posts: 398 ✭
    MS -- could be, I just grabbed IBM because I had the numbers in front of me....but, the same holds true for Qualcomm. Microsoft, the DJIA, etc, etc...my point was cards aren't doing that badly (or badly at all) given the larger picture plus there is an enjoyment factor.

    Scott
    Dr S. of the Dead Donkeys MC
  • anjcollectionanjcollection Posts: 213
    What's even more interesting is to watch what happens on thePit.com or etopps.com.

    If I could only buy more shares of Tony Gwynn and Yao Ming...

    I bought 3 shares of Gwynn at the "IPO" price of $6.50 and 1 share of Yao Ming at $9 (those were all the shares they would give me)... and now they're at $34 and $20. I just wish I could be that good at picking real stocks and funds! image
  • dstudebadstudeba Posts: 215 ✭✭
    I was wondering what people thought of the eTopps. Just to clarufy my background, I buy packs very infrequently as I don't like many of the offerings and/or feel they are overpriced. When eTopps came out my opinion was that they were silly. Why would I want a card that I can't hold, look at and trade? If I wanted a 'virtual collection' I could download pictures off the set registry and have a great collection. I don't want my cards in Topps' vault.

    Am I missing something? Is there a compelling reason to own these beyond the 'greater fool theory'? If it is just for investment, then I believe mikeschmidt has much better ideas. Those small bank stocks in the Northeast have been winners.

    --------------------

    Trying to find 1954 Wilson Franks
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    Collectable
  • VirtualizardVirtualizard Posts: 1,936 ✭✭


    << <i>No doubt the graded market is cyclical - corresponding to the baseball off-season. .... >>



    Jeff,

    I've wondered about this before, but, in my experience, I don't think that the baseball off season really has any effect on vintage graded baseball cards at all. Does anyone else have any feedback on this point? I'd be interested to hear opinions about raw cards as well. How about other sports?

    JEB.
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