Are 11 uncirculated grades enough?
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
Horrid thought isn't it. The services already have trouble with consistency as it is. But, the thought occurs to me, are 11 really enough in some series where the value between grades starts to get really high. For instance, Carson City seated dollars - there can easily be a range of $100,000 between a single uncirculated grade! Don't you need to know if the coin is a low end MS65 or a high end MS65?
Which comes to the point of my post - isn't the byplay between PCGS and NGC a necessary part of the industry? Isn't it necessary to have PCGS grading to their standard and NGC grading to thiers and those two standards being half a point apart? Isn't it necessary to have a PCGS MS64 1873-CC seated dollar be worth $200,000 ; an NGC MS65 be worth $250,000 and a PCGS MS65 be worth $300,000 [just pulling some numbers out of thin air because the coins don't trade ever]. You can even go one step further and say a PQ PCGS MS64 that won't make NGC MS65 is worth $225k and a PQ NGC MS65 that can't get crossed but everyone shakes their head and wonders why is worth $275k. Now it finally resembles something of a smooth quality/price curve. Certainly it's better than a big $100k jump.
Or how about those rare date Morgan dollars, like the 86-O, where an MS64 is worth $5k and a PCGS MS65 is worth $150k. Isn't it necessary to have a middle of the road NGC MS65 that's worth $75k so you can have the ultra PQ PCGS MS64 that can't uptick be wroth $30k and the really nice NGC that for some reason won't cross be worth $110k just to break that huge range of value up?
Doesn't the grading system start to break down at high values without that relationship? Or is the problem that most MS coins are still scrunched into the MS61-65 range? Perhaps that's another topic!
Which comes to the point of my post - isn't the byplay between PCGS and NGC a necessary part of the industry? Isn't it necessary to have PCGS grading to their standard and NGC grading to thiers and those two standards being half a point apart? Isn't it necessary to have a PCGS MS64 1873-CC seated dollar be worth $200,000 ; an NGC MS65 be worth $250,000 and a PCGS MS65 be worth $300,000 [just pulling some numbers out of thin air because the coins don't trade ever]. You can even go one step further and say a PQ PCGS MS64 that won't make NGC MS65 is worth $225k and a PQ NGC MS65 that can't get crossed but everyone shakes their head and wonders why is worth $275k. Now it finally resembles something of a smooth quality/price curve. Certainly it's better than a big $100k jump.
Or how about those rare date Morgan dollars, like the 86-O, where an MS64 is worth $5k and a PCGS MS65 is worth $150k. Isn't it necessary to have a middle of the road NGC MS65 that's worth $75k so you can have the ultra PQ PCGS MS64 that can't uptick be wroth $30k and the really nice NGC that for some reason won't cross be worth $110k just to break that huge range of value up?
Doesn't the grading system start to break down at high values without that relationship? Or is the problem that most MS coins are still scrunched into the MS61-65 range? Perhaps that's another topic!
0
Comments
jom
Good post.
And you know, the coins don't have to cost $100,000 to make you wonder about that same question.
For instance, I was recently pricing some GSA 1881-CC Morgans for a dealer. A number of the coins were MS66+ quality and looked far better than the 'average' 66 but weren't necessarily 'lock' 67's. Anyway, the price jump was something like $880 in MS66 to $4200 in MS67.
What a dilemma! Should I price them at 66 levels or 67 levels....or somewhere in between? The dealer finally made an offer in-between......................but we've still no consumated the deal...............and that's my fault!
GSAGUY
For mercs and frankies and jeffs there are 22 available uncirculated grades for each coin!!!!
For copper uncs of any century there are 33 available uncirculated grades!!!!!!
For Morgan Silver dollars of both the 19th and 20th century there are 33 usable uncirculated grades.
Now for NGC, multiply the above number of grades by two thanks to the star!!!! So up to 66 grades for some coin issues!?!?!?!?
So poor George Washington had to hold the fort by pronouncing that he cannot tell a lie! Only 11 unc grades for George!
Franklin Roosevelt took away our circulating gold coins so you think he should be more than satisfied with 11 grades?
John F. Kennedy, Eisenhower, Anthony and Sackie never saw their coins circulate so 11 grades is also more than we can stand.
Lets see if our experts can figure all of this out!!!!
Not true, ever see an MS68 BN coin? They can't exist because the fact that they are BN means they CAN'T be 68.
>>clackamas: Not only have I seen a PCGS MS-68BN copper coin (1793 Wreath Vine/Bars) but there is ALSO A PCGS MS-69BN!!
DOH!
to rationalize the system. It may lack simplicity but it works after a fashion.
The question, "do I need eleven or more grades (numerical) for uncirculated coins?" For me,the answer is a definite "no" because i always will buy a coin on the basis of its real merits as i perceive them,never soley on the basis of a grade number that has been assigned to the coin,a number that was perceived and then assigned by someone else.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
the 11 grades you refer to are a myth, to give the illusion that grading co's CAN be that "accurate".
K S
Grade Rarity is often (though not always) a symptom of people buying the slab not the coin. GRADES are MADE. Mintages are fixed. We all know about coins that were previously in ms63 holders that now reside in ms66 holders. Those "numerical" upgrades were created out of thin air - as was the money made by the creator of that grade.
I personally do not like the "nasdaq" mentality that seems to creep into Numismatics (though I do appreciate the fine art of coin-trading). While our coins will hopefully have some value into the future, Numismatics is primarily the study of COIN design, rarity and history. It is NOT the study of questionable profit - "filthy lucre" - that often follows every "made grade" in the numerical incremental grading system. People buying coins worth ten dollars in ms67, yet paying tens of thousands of dollars for the same coin in ms70 (because it says so on the slab) strikes me as having the potential to become a Numismatic Tulip.
mattproof
Actually, I think there are too many. When a single point difference can be worth thousands of dollars, but no one can tell the difference between the two grades, there are just too many. I would like to see them grouped as follows: MS60-63, MS64-66, and MS67-70. This forces collectors of high value coins to become more educated about grading before putting their money down. (Similar to having stock investors do research before investing.)
if you had to draft an entire baseball team strictly on numbers, say, on-base percentage, what kind of team would you end up with? would that make sense? such numbers can be extremely accurate, batting average, slugging percentage, etc etc, but on its own, does such a number mean anything?
same w/ grades. it always comes back to: do not buy sight-unseen (ie. based just on a number). buy what looks good - to you
K S
<< <i>Actually, I think there are too many. When a single point difference can be worth thousands of dollars, but no one can tell the difference between the two grades, there are just too many. I would like to see them grouped as follows: MS60-63, MS64-66, and MS67-70. >>
I agree with Steve27. When a coin is cracked out and regrades one point higher, suddenly it's worth thousands more than it was? We're kidding ourselves to think we can grade MS coins on a 11-point scale.
We could get by with 60/63/65/67. Sure, some coins would be high-end for the grade, and some would be low, but that's no different than it is now. That's why we essentially have 30-odd MS grades. The 61 through 69 grades have a high-end and a low-end. It's so silly.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
LSCC#1864
Ebay Stuff
<< <i>We all know about coins that were previously in ms63 holders that now reside in ms66 holders. Those "numerical" upgrades were created out of thin air >>
No some of us don't. I'll speak for the series I specialize in. My problem has been with a ms62 - 64, but a 63 to a 66 is a long stretch in the Franklin half series, and all the ms66's that I have seen at many major shows, coin stores across the country and in others personal collections including my own the ms66's could never be considered a ms63. The ms63 has bag marks galore and some rub in Frankies high points. I realize the above remark was a generalazation not made with Franklins in mind. However, thats the first thing my mind thinks about and the above statement is completely false and rediculous concerning Franklin halves! Maybe it has merit in other series, I don't know, I'll also throw in Merc Dimes as well. I have my eyes on these and have been buying raw ones.... As far as PCGs dimes I have yet to see a 3 coin in a 6 holder.
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
(I don't do MS)
Joe.
I'd be comfortable seeing all current Morgan grades from MS60 to MS67 expanded to reflect low-end, average, and high-end. The relatively few coins that exist in higher grades should be exceptional from the word go in order to get there in the first place, so there shouldn't be room to call one low-end or mediocre... should there?
So when you add in the question of the value of a coin, and you can only use the price guides for the grade on the slab as a starting point, because of one fundmental inefficiency in the market place: the buyer and seller not only have to hook up at the same time and place, but they have to agree on a price! Obviously, if the seller thinks the coin is PQ and prices it higher than list for that grade, it is up to the buyer to decide to pony up or not, and likewise, if the seller prices it at list for the grade and the buyer thinks it's PQ, isn't he going to snap up the coin?
IMO, for sight seen coins, the grade on the slab should be a starting point, and isn't half of the collector's fun in second-guessing this number, in finding PQ examples, in finding a "deal"?
As for sight-unseen trades, I don't know, who trades this way?
Anyway, sorry for rambling, suffice it to say that I personally think the system is just fine the way it is, and if I want THAT coin, at THAT time, at THAT price, I'll buy it, and use the grade on the slab as just another bit of data (albeit sometimes an important one) and sometimes I get a good deal and sometimes not so good, and the same goes when I sell 'em, if the "right" buyer is there at the "right" time I get a better price, and sometimes a coin gets sold for less than it's "worth" to me and sometimes more, because of the same inefficiency and subjectivity that make collecting coins so interesting.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry