Pop Reports - Bogus?
zeppo
Posts: 33
I'm a little new to this game but from what I've read on these boards no reliance can be placed on the population reports. Just based on what I've read on these boards a lot of people are breaking open 8's or 9's in the hopes of regrading at a 9 or 10. Wouldn't that mean that in a lot of cases, I guess mostly star cards and not commons, that the population report is grossly overstated. I read in another thread that someone busted open the same PSA 9 Jordan Rookie twice, which means that one card accounts for 3 of the total on the report.
So I would guess that some people sitting on a key PSA 9 with a population of 4 or 5 may indeed have the only one. Is that possible?
So I would guess that some people sitting on a key PSA 9 with a population of 4 or 5 may indeed have the only one. Is that possible?
Working on 1962 mid grade Mars Attacks.
0
Comments
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
To use your example I would have to say probably not. Typically people are trying to upgrade high pop cards into low pop cards. That would make the high pop card populations overstated which really wouldn't matter that much. If Jordan has pop 500 or pop 300 it really doesn't matter that much. But the difference between 3 and 5 would be enormous. I would think that on the higher grade cards that it is fairly accurate. The lower grades could possibly be way off in the higher pops.
Wayne
Definetly they need to do something to keep the pop report some what accurate. several years from now it will be way off!
Derek(Boston)
Always looking for PSA 10 2001 Sweet Spot Baseball email me
James
magic??esp??
They do accept them back. I recently sent back 25 flips (from a former thread). I don't know the pops well enough to tell if they were taken off, but I didn't get them back, or get a "what the heck are you doing" email either. I just sent them in an envelope with a note. I figured they could get it to the right person.
Bernie
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
I have about 200 flips from newer cards. David was right (as usual). You know Dave, you should write a book. If you have a higher end card, (PSA 8 or 9) of a low pop, you are not going to crack it out. Dealers mostly crack out and from some of the stories I have heard, it does pay off. One day they will get the POP right. It's not a perfect science, just a gauge, like the SMR. The SMR was never supposed to be a retail price guide, just some sort of gauge.
Mike
Given that most bulk dealers cant be bothered cracking them out themselves - they'll most likely just send them back to PSA with a complaint on the grade. And your average collector wouldn't ever think of sending cards back in because their knowledge limits them to "this is an 8" or "this is a 9" - end of story.
And even if you look at the "slab obsessed whackos on the board (myself included)", really - what percentage of your colection have you ever sent back in???? I'm betting that the Pop report is correct within 1% across all cards slabbed and within 2-3% on every inidividual set that PSA grades.
Are the rarer and more valuable cards more likely to be off slightly - certainly! But, the numbers are still going to be close enough to give you a REAL GOOD idea of the difficulty and/or value.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Not always true. I know of a few instances where if a collector is very confident that it is a strong 8, he will try for a 9 even if it is a low pop card. I understand one particular vintage basketball card with a pop of about 6 in 8 with no 9s had been resubmitted at least 3 times for an upgrade--each time coming back an 8.
Davalillo
#1 cards from vintage issues get cracked. 1955 Bowman #1 Hoyt Wilhelm is a perfect example. With a purported PSA 8 population of 19 --- you think it would be easy to find (trust me -- 19 is a high number for this set for a PSA 8 population). Nonetheless -- no set on the Registry boast this cards in an 8 -- no dealer claims to have access to one, and the population has been fairly stagnant for a long time. On April 23, 2001, there was a Population of 17, for example. As this card does not exist in PSA 9 -- I think it is safe to say that someone had a strong 8 that was cracked and resubmitted over and over again. I know that #1 cards hold a fascination for some collectors -- and I am sure that a small handful of uber-collectors may own this card -- but at the end of the day, the card has not been sold as a single in over three years. The two times the card has been sold it has been part of a larger set.
Though one will never know the "true" population of a card -- any vintage collector should soon enough develop a strong enough understanding of certain vintage sets to understand a) which cards are most likely to get cracked and b) which cards are the true dogs of a set.
MS
The set registry itself is an effort to get a handle on true population. But that won't be perfect unless every currently graded card makes it into the Registry. Plus, the flips from crackouts could be entered into the Registry as well, giving a bogus registration.
Never will be perfect. Sort of like the 2nd law of thermodynamics. The universe is chaotic and gradually coming apart, not evolving into higher forms of life.
<< <i>The set registry itself is an effort to get a handle on true population.
It is??
The risk/reward factor is what drives the resubmission numbers.
The math works out this way: Most PSA 7 commons are in the $15. -$30. range. PSA 8's with pops < 30 routinely go for a low of $150. to as much as $400. So at the $10./card economy rate you only need approximately 1 out of every 20 up to as many as 40 PSA 7's resubmitted to bump up to make a profit, even if a couple get bumped down to 6's. And for PSA 8's broken out it works out to 1 out of every 35 to as many as 50 need to bump up to PSA 9.
The value of PSA 7's is minimally affected, however, the value of some PSA 8's is much more volitile as value can be affected by each additional PSA 8 graded.