Example when a low pop is no longer low...

qualitycards

The famous JOEL HORLEN PSA-9 Kelloggs '70
Remember about 6 months ago when this card would easily top the $200.00 barrier? I remember it hitting $230.00 at one time, now if you want you could get one at 1/3 of those levels. The above auction wasn't even opened at the $79. price. This Horlen proves that in many instances a low pop will correct itself w/ more submissions, and that the SMR guide should'nt worry too much about low pop common prices, cause each issue they would have to modify the pricing back to reality...jay

Mantlefan

Jay, agree that each set is different. Been following the pops for 1957 Topps BB for awhile. In two and a half years, no new PSA 8 cards of #347 Hal Naragon have appeared [pop is 8]. Thus his $1000+ price. Similarly #300 Mike Garcia has had only 2 PSA 8's in that time period. [pop is also 8]. Another toughie, #291 Windy McCall has only 1 new PSA 8 in over two years. When these cards show up for auction, watch out!

qualitycards

FRANK - True w/ my '65 endeavor, the Holy Grail is #22 Charlie Smith w/ only 3 PSA-8's that have been graded, and only 11 cards that have been submitted. The Carlton rookie of that set has had 1539 cards submitted as comparison. Regarding your '57 set, perhaps someone can dust off a binder full of cards and help the pops along. I remember selling a Tommy Carroll Yankees PSA-8 #164 on eBay and got a pleasant surprise when it went for over 4 times my website price at $300+.....If your on the end that sells it, its sweet! If you are a bidder that bids 300% of book price and you still don't come close its very disheartining...jay

boggs301012

Qualitycards,


I have an easy way to figure that out, The number of set builders for that set.. lets just say 12. If there is less then 1 then it is low pop , above that then it isnt. Makes sense to me


James

theBobs

<< <i>True w/ my '65 endeavor, the Holy Grail is #22 Charlie Smith >>

I purchased #22 along with 3 other Mets on a BIN of $92, if I remember correctly. The card was promptly traded to Wayne, who at the time was around 5 cards short of the set. This card now resides with Mastronet's set. At the time, I thought Low-Pop was a myth. I'd say 95% of the time, the pop's tend to pull a Horlen and return to the mean. However, when the Low Pop is real, it can be unwise to sell early. How is one to know the difference?

thegemmintman

What you say is true Jay, but the Horlen 9 still sells for around $50. Not bad for a card that has a population of 28 cards in an obscure set .

Wayne8348

The guys who have collected some of these sets for years in raw form seem to have a pretty good grasp on what the most condition sensitive cards are. I've learned a lot just listening to them talk about how difficult some cards are to get. I think it's pretty safe to say that Charlie Smith will remain a low pop forever. I've looked at so many raw cards of his and they are almost always oc.

Brian, When we make the Charlie Smith trade I think we tried to structure it so that it would be very favorable for you but it ended up in retrospect being favorable to me. I still owe you one.

Wayne

qualitycards

BOGGS - Thats a good rule of thumb, however its hard to figure the exact amount of set collectors. The '65 registry has 40+ listed, and in the case of the #22 Charlie Smith w/ a pop of 3 that I mentioned, he also has popularity by being a Met. Although he'll live in history as the man the Yankees traded Maris for.

BRIAN - I remeber when you used the Buy It Now, i missed it by a few minutes and when I hit the search it came up, I was salavating until I saw the auction was closed. Out of the pop of 3....1 is in the Mastronet set from Wayne, from you and from the Brooklyn sellers, another is in Davalillo's set and the remaining 1 could be in the Duke Of Mints set.

GEMMINTMAN - Yes, $50 is still nice for the card. I was just reminding everyone about the fervor when it was routinely traded for $200.00 - Hey! I have 4 Ollie Brown PSA-9's so I'm very content

theBobs

Wayne, that trade was not based on pure economics from my perspective. We had helped each other many times previous to that trade, and a couple of times after as well. I'd rather make fair trades and build relationships, than squeeze every single penny out of each card transaction. I think we accomplished that goal.

Thinking back on your race to finish, I am struck by one thing that I have never seen mentioned on these boards (until your post) --
There are 1965 collectors building the set in raw condition (folks that never submit cards for grading) that were bidding on certain PSA slabbed cards. From your conversations with these folks, I first learned that some cards were truly low pop, and not just a wrinkle in time. And recognized as such by raw collectors that actually chased slabbed cards to multiples of SMR in order to include it in their raw set. These numbers continue to be low pop to this day.

Certainly, alot of people building graded sets started on raw. But the case I mention are those that remain raw collectors, yet will buy a slabbed common at 5x smr in PSA 8 because they recognize the rarity...

Jay -- I actually called Wayne at home (it was a Saturday morning) to let him hit the BIN. He wasn't home, although his wife took the message. I then decided to bust the BIN. Wayne returned my call a couple of hours later.

mrichards

Hi Jay/Guys,

Here's a POP killer. 1952 Bowman Joe Hatten (card #144). When I finally found mine in an 8 for my set, the pop was 3 on a PSA 8 and 2 9's. My card was the 4th 8 to be graded. Now the pop is 14 8's and still 2 9's. The last couple of them are still selling in the $700 range because I do not think anyone caught on yet. Also, card #226 from the same set, Alex Kellner. The POP was 4 PSA 8's and no 9's. The pop now is 4 PSA 8's and 1 PSA 9. That became the toughest card in the 52 Bowman baseball set.

Mike

Stump

I believe time is the key factor for any pop. It has a way of making sure low pops are no longer low pops. The true low pops will make it through. The fake low pops will always drop in price. Its a two sided sword. As the set builder fills his list the next avalible will have one less bidder. Sooner than later the price will drop. All it takes is 3-5 to enter the market in a short period, say 3 months. Now the truely low pop will never have 3-5 enter in 3 months maybe one every six which will certainly not keep up with demand. Supply and demand it hasn't changed in the card market for 30 years.

Dave

BobS

That was my Horlen auction. Yeah, I knew the price has come down alot since the fall, but I thought for sure I could at least get an opener. I guess the fact that there is another one closing in a day or two which started well under my opener didn't help things out either. I'll relist next week-end and try again (unless there is an offer out there, somewhere, someone??).

As Kenny used to say.."you gotta' know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em..."

Wayne8348

Jay,

The only card the duke is missing is Charlie Smith. The 3rd Charlie Smith is sitting at the home of skipm. He outbid the duke about 5 months ago on ebay at $325 to buy the Charlie Smith card.

wayne

qualitycards

BOBS - I spotted your auction while making a search, and I too couldn't believe it garned no bid(s). Thats why I started this thread, cause in my mind it was a $200 card. Or it was when I worked on my set 6 months ago. I just wanted to post to get others feedback on the volitility of low pops, perceived or not. In many instances I post an auction w/ a questionable card, like I recently did regarding a PRO-10 Pete Rose. Your auction was problem free w/ a decent scan and all info listed in the description and I just wanted to discuss the low pop scenerio.

WAYNE - Ahh! So SKIP has the 3rd. I remember when the spirted bidding peaked at $330. for that card. Not bad on an $18 smr common. Skip's been awful quiet lately as I picked up on eBay an Al Worthington PSA-9 listed as 1 of 1 (really its 1 of 2) at the opening bid. A few months ago, Skip and the Duke would have paid 2 or 3 times that amount...jay

Basilone

SkipM. actually came out of the woodwork last night...topping even Mr. Branca himself for the 1965 PSA 10 Maris. With a $2500 bid...he still came in 2nd though to a third gentlemen.

John

qualitycards

So thats why SKIP is passing on the 9's, he's now upgrading for 10's That Maris was sure sweet though! ...jay

BBCI

Mike, you reminded me of something I wanted to bring up. I used to look at low pop 8s....but one really has to look at the "low pop 8" and everything above it. I just passed on a series of auctions where the population on 8s were fairly low, but the 9s were unusually high. What's more, I just picked up two PSA 9s (population of 2) for close to SMR where the PSA 8s were also low population. I think folks might have been sleeping on ths 9s because they were so focused on "low pop 8".

I have to disagree with Stump's point about low population cards decreasing in value "As the set builder fills his list the next avalible will have one less bidder". I have been witness to and participated in purchasing low population 8/9 cards despite the fact that the purchaser already owned one. I see several benefits 1) source of profit should the low pop remain low pop and continue to rise in value, 2) stall other set builders in their attempts at completing sets in a timely fashion in order to maintain set registry ranking, 3) use card as trade bait to acquire other needed (low population) cards.

The meaning of true low population cards is only catching on. Anybody heard of Honus Wagner? I can see SMR starting to track and list low population cards in the near future (despite Joe's commentary to the contrary). I think enough cards from the 1950s (and earlier) have been submitted to know what is low pop and what is not. As for the 1960s, we are starting to understand the early 1960s but may still have some more raw material from the late 1960s that may change the low pops. Joe even did cartwheels in a writeup over the 1962 set which sold for a significant premium over SMR because of the scores of low population cards (some 8/9s don't exist). The 1970s will take time....

Maybe SMR could start with a range: 1962 Topps 8s 1-3 = $200-$300
1962 Topps 8s 4-6 = $100-$200
1962 Topps 8s 7-9 = $25 - $100

Don

Davalillo

Jay,

You are almost always right but not this time. SMR ought to invest the time to determine what the low pop cards are and then adjust prices accordingly. For 1952 Topps they are in there. My recollection is that Gene Freese is in there for 1955. While Horlen and other modern "rarities" will of course plummet in value as more are submitted, we may not see many more 8s in the true vintage sets of some of the low pop cards. The SMR ought to reflect the current price for the card and simply be adjusted as market conditions change.

Don,

Excellent points--particularly about the strategic reasons for buying low pop cards. Certain of the most famous collectors are notorious for buying a second of a low pop card that they know another collector needs to either give them leverage in a trade or to prevent them from completing the set.

While everything seems nice and friendly on some of the semi-modern sets(1967 topps, 1969 topps, 1972 Topps for example) it is not that way at all in the true vintage sets.

Davalillo

qualitycards

DAVALILLO - You are correct! My point in bringing up the Horlen is that the perceived value was so great, others submitted more to either capitalize on the high prices or make their collections worth more. Now with a Ben Wade this clearly isn't an option, so yes I believe 1950's and below true pop cards should be given their due in the SMR. 1960's and above is a different story. I had some PSA-9's 1976 Basketball that ended last Friday, all 15 went over SMR, and some as high as 4 times. I had some 1 of 1's and 1 of 2's - so naturally, within time the pops can catch up w/ demand...jay

rw2win

<< <i>BRIAN - I remeber when you used the Buy It Now, i missed it by a few minutes and when I hit the search it came up, I was salavating until I saw the auction was closed. >>



I can't feel to sorry for you JAY. You beat me to the $25.00 Santo by mere seconds a few weeks back. Every dog has their day.

Wayne8348

Jay,

I wanted to buy that Maris 10 last summer but mintstate had it for sale for $5000. He had bought it from a superior auction last year for $3600 because a customer of his wanted it. Of course after he bought it his customer backed out of the deal and he was stuck with it. A $1000 loss is a pretty hefty loss on that card.

wayne

qualitycards

Hey! Its human nature to complain, but nabbing that Santo made up for a few of my shutouts. And if it makes you feel better, I just rec'd it on Saturday after waiting 3 weeks, although I did register the cert # upon notification ...jay