Are we in a "Dot.Com" coin market?

AbesNeighbor

I know we all like to collect, but it seems that in the past 5 to 6 months the pace of coin prices for MS63's and higher has picked up. There have been some outlandish bids on coins...descriptions of coins for sale are being hyped.

This reminds me of about six months before the stock market correction and everyone "had to own" it!

Is it time for astute buyers to relax and let the market come to them? Are the price guides and the auction houses in control?

IrishMike

There is no question that the internet now is a large part of the market and the primary reason why interest in coin collecting has picked up. Reasoning would follow that as more demand enters the marketplace, prices will increase. I have noticed that prices on au/bu/ms 63 IHC's have increased dramatically. Let's hope my local dealers don't notice this.

barberlover

I certainly think auction coin prices are nuts lately, also something thats always seems to be true is that you can get better prices from local shows for the same quality of a ceretain coin then you can from online dealers who always want 20-30 above grey sheet. I think that most of the dealers who ask that much are lying when they say they pay grey sheet or even a little more themselves to get most of there nice quality coins [thats b.s.] when was the last time that an online dealer offered to buy one of your coins at grey sheet or even more if the coin was nice but didn't have crack out potential ?

Barry

Since I collect non-modern, circulated coins, I've watched from the sidelines, in amazement, as the registry craze/modern bubbles have grown. IMO, there is no question it will come crashing down at some point. How does that line about history repeating itself go?
Dave Bowers' book "Adventures in Rare Coins" should be required reading for anyone collecting high grade coins, especially moderns. There's a section in it discussing the history of coin prices over the years. Very illuminating. Anyone want to buy a tulip?

ClausUrch

To me, there is a big difference between "coin collecting" and "coin investing". If and when the market comes crashing (or floating) down, I will still pull out my reg. set of Modern MS Commemoratives and MS64FBL Franklins and view the individual coins with a smile of contentment on my face. The money doesn't matter because I collect what I like and if by chance, in the future, my collection does increase in value, so the much better. I don't think the new modern coin market has so much to do with new collectors investing in coins, but rather an increase in the amount of new collectors in the market in general.

Lakesammman

There are markets and then there are submarkets. In the IHC/FE submarket, specifically beautiful, properly graded MS65R or better coins, there are virtually none to be had. When they do come available, the greysheet is worthless. Because of the scarcity and desirability/demand, there is a real reason for the prices to increase.

I can't speak to the remainder of the market - any other "specialists" want to speak up about their segment of the coin world??

AbesNeighbor

Claus,

I buy for the same reasons you do.. I enjoy looking at high grade coins I own. I just wonder whether I should be chasing after the holes in my collectiom now or wait until they are more available, at better prices... This frenzy of "buy them now before they get too high" has priced quite a few coins beyond reality. I can afford them, I just hate to pay that when I know they will come down.

nwcs

I don't think it is like the dot com market, because that was fueled by wild speculation, no business plans, and future potential. Oh wait, I guess it is kind of like the dot com market. The only difference is that in this case we're talking about a tangible item instead of a business which has to be grown and managed. In that respect, coins are better.

Still, as I take a step back and look from my eyes I think the directions coins are taking is interesting. I do get the feeling that many things are becoming hyped to higher prices. It has been one reason why I'm beginning to make a transition for a while to just circulated issues and the occassional Morgan. People don't generally hype up circulated coins and you just gotta get a Morgan now and then.

Neil

truthteller

On Friday, I talked to two longtime and honest part time coin dealers who also had silicon valley jobs. They both lost their positions after many years of steady employment. The dealers were unloading coins to raise badly needed cash. Although they are only two, multiply them across the country, then multiply how many collectors are in the same boat. In the near future, I see more collectors selling off substantial collections to raise cash. This is when the market will turn, once the mid level collector stops buying, and the higher level collector begins to hesitate.

TRUTH

cladking

<< <i>Since I collect non-modern, circulated coins, I've watched from the sidelines, in amazement, as the registry craze/modern bubbles have grown. IMO, there is no question it will come crashing down at some point. How does that line about history repeating itself go?
>>



I do collect moderns and have a totally different perspective than what you see. I see
many rare coins which have been almost totally ignored since the day they were issued.
Many coins with very low uncirculated populations which would sell for many multiples of
their current price if they were just old US coins. But since they are just moderns their
prices can be as low as a few dollars. Now in the last four years there is demand for these
coins. There is demand not only for the rarities but also for the more common items. This
demand is still quite small compared to the demand for most of the classics but it is grow-
ing very rapidly. Most of this demand is real grass roots demand coming from huge num-
bers of new collectors rather than speculation by we old timers. It would certainly be risky
to state that moderns must go up for five more years or two more weeks, but it is not much
of a gamble to say moderns will keep going up so long as the demand continues to increase.
With tens of millions of people collecting clad quarters from circulation and hundreds of thou-
sands collecting the other circulating coins and obsolete quarters from circulation, there is a
huge pool of potential future demand.

gmarguli

In the "dot.com" era, anything with the .com attached to it was on fire. Not so with the current coin market. High end stuff is hot, but it always is in demand. Top pop moderns are hot (This is a bubble that will burst soon enough). Second tier moderns are not hot. Generic is not hot. Common stuff is not hot.

There are patches of heat and fire, but there are also patches of cold and ice throughout the market.

ElmerFusterpuck

If you recently paid 4 figures or more for a pop 1, post-1995 coin, be afraid. Be very afraid.

cladking

<< <i>In the "dot.com" era, anything with the .com attached to it was on fire. Not so with the current coin market. High end stuff is hot, but it always is in demand. Top pop moderns are hot (This is a bubble that will burst soon enough). Second tier moderns are not hot. Generic is not hot. Common stuff is not hot.

There are patches of heat and fire, but there are also patches of cold and ice throughout the market. >>




Second tier moderns have been advancing at a torrid pace for years now (since '96).
Granted they are taking a breather the past few months though.