Proof Silver Eagles - Explosion of 70's.

Healthguy

Over the past couple of months, the number of PR70 DCAM silver eagles has jumped from about 15 to 35. Discussions with others has focused on breaking the tie for 2nd. My concern is that for those that have, or want PR70's that their is a significant risk in pricing. This could actually mean higher pricing since more collectors have an opportunity to own PR70's and might create demand and competition, but I am very concerned that the trend might continue which could depreciate those who have any 70's or beautiful PR69's. I don't think anyone wants their 69's priced like NGC.

Scary examples. 1991-S PR 70 - As of October 2002- 897 coins graded, 1 Pr70, Since that time 597 coins, 3 more 70's. 1 in 897, then 3 out of next 600?

1995-P - 2 out of the last 200 grade at 70?

1996-P 3 out of the last 500. only 1 out of the first 1000.

There have been Teletrade and EBAY auctions out the ying-yang of late. Most have been from Dealers. A little inside favoritism? Come on PCGS, you see what has happened to security firms who did sweetheart deals with investment banking clients. Don't screw up this part of the investment industry.

I appreciate any comments or thoughts on the subject.

kranky

Read what David Hall said about grading PR70 DCAMs in this thread where he says he thinks maybe 1% of all post-1984 proofs may qualify for a PR70.

And I'd also urge you not to consider coins as an investment.

toothpuller

I would recommend just sticking with PR-69s on newly issued coins. There really isn't that significant a difference in quality [if any], it is just a matter of the price differential which is significant. PCGS can make as many or as few 70s as they please and they obviously are now going to make more. As has been said many times before on these boards, the difference between a 69 and a 70 is the only the opinion of the grading company.

As to referring to the purchase of PR70s as part of an investment industry that is very wishful thinking and buying them is akin to buying a high flyer internet stock. The risk is substantial, you can make lots of money or lose lots of money with either depending on your timing [i.e. luck]. For me I would rather wager my mad money at a sports book in Vegas.

DCAMFranklin

Personally, I don't believe your observations have anything to do with the last 2 months. Instead, it is a reflection of the prior 3 years. When PCGS stomped on the brakes for the 70 grade, then smart collector/dealers took their 70 candidate coins to NGC, as they knew even if the coin graded 70, it wasn't going to receive the grade. Some 70 coins went to PCGS and went out in 69 holders. The 1% Kranky refers to have always been there and will continue to be there. It is just a matter of grading consistency. Competition for those 70 coins will remain STRONG. There should be a bit of weakness in the prices, as Registry Set collectors begin to wonder just how many coins will be "made" in the next 6 months.

Dog97

As far as Proof coins I see no reason why a planchet that has been heat treated in an oven to soften it and then smashed at least twice with pressure exceding 80 tons will not look EXACTLY like the die that struck it. After all they receive special handling and are put in protective cases, a perfect coin should be easy to make.
I can see MS 70 being rare as business strike coins shoot out of the presses like machine gun bullets, thousands sliding down a metal chute at the same time, being shaken through riddlers to cull out the large errors and being dumped in & out of tote bins 2 tons at a time......
I'm sure if PCGS doesn't flood the market with 70s like the other companies do the price will remain stable but the market will adjust itself, like on the former super rare pop 1 etc that collectors overpaid for and they might become more affordable.

wallstreetman

They are starting to lose credibility with me!

becker

While it might amount to a little foot shooting from a submissions standpoint, the grading services could make a substantial contribution to consumer understanding by using photos and other visual aids to clearly explain the difference between a 69 and a 70. We know there is a difference and it must appear on the coin so why not point it out so we all know what to look for that disqualifies a 69 from being a 70.

An option would be for expert graders of such coins who are not associated with the grading services to tackle the same project. Because the 70 grade is so important there must be a way to clearly distinguish such coins from those deserving a lower grade. Certainly it would be irresponsible for any grading service to give any coin any grade without having clear and obvious reasons for doing so.

It probably would never happen, but PCGS could provide permanent stability to the hyper-graded modern coin market by simply announcing that they would no longer grade any coin 70.

Thank you for creating this most interesting thread.

Best regards,
Tom Becker

gmarguli

It probably would never happen, but PCGS could provide permanent stability to the hyper-graded modern coin market by simply announcing that they would no longer grade any coin 70.

Then all they have done is make the PR69 grade the top grade. Basically changed the grading scale. from 1-70 to 1-69. If they lump all the 69s and 70s into one grade, then us, the people who pay their bills, will complain and find a service that will grade honestly, not politically.