OK, I understand the gripe of the gold amatures, but what is your tactic and what is going down hill

mrpaseo

I know, buy low sell high right? Well, since gold is on it's way up, everyone seems to be jumping on the band wagon trying to make a quick profit right? Well, the flood of amatures will cause the market to crash just like everything else...

OK, in my investment days I have learned that when the economy is going down, that is the best time to buy, not sell. So, since gold is going up, I would think "Do not buy". That said...

What should we buy, that is LOW or going down, that has potential to go up in the future?

I was also taught, that if you find something wrong, you do not complain about someone else, you tell the problem and back up with a solution. Do not become part of the problem, be a part of the solution!

Thanks,
Ray

DaveG

This may be more appropriate for the open forum, but I'll make it "legit" for this forum by noting that although coin prices may be going up (or at least staying the same), now may be the time to buy some of the coins you wanted five years ago, but couldn't find, because folks who own them wouldn't sell at the lower prices then prevalent.

As far as investments go, if you believe that now is the time to sell gold, you could consider selling some gold. Even if you don't own physical gold to sell, you could investigate selling futures or options short. (Note for those of you at home, this can be a very risky activity! Don't try this with your rent money!)

Or, you could buy stocks, which although not technically "low" are certainly lower than they were three years ago!

roadrunner

What's "low" now that is worth buying? Choice and gem classic coins like seated, gold type, proof gold, post-1807 bust, Barber, seated, Morgan and Peace dollars, and classic commems, for starters. Also gold and silver bullion is STILL priced low. The amateurs aren't even in the bullion markets yet. The average person has no clue what the gold market is or could care less...today. If you think the few dozen amateurs that post here in the forum mean anything, think again. We just happen to be in a coin market that is associated with gold coins and therefore gold bullion coins. Even your financial pros (non-gold bugs) are not yet into this market. But the ones that were around in 1980 are probably thinking about getting their clients into it. When your buddy at work is buying gold/coins and every financial analyst recommends 5-15% gold in everyone's portfolio.......sell off your position. We have a long ways to go to that point. So far, no one on Wall Street recommends anything but stocks and give no creedance or faith to precious metals. Don't expect that to change. That's their game. But the gold game looks to be very young.

roadrunner

gold amateur

FoundingFather

Stocks.

Baley

to me the keys are diversification and asset allocation. If my portfolio is, for example, 50% stocks, 20% home equity, 20% rare coins, 5% bullion, and 5% guns, ammo, and canned food and water, I feel I'm covered for any eventuality. if the bullion goes up 30%, maybe I'll sell off a third of it and buy stocks. if my stocks go down 60%[ ugh, they did ] then I'll add to those positions as I'm able and ride it out. If society goes to hell in a handbasket and all my paper assets go to zero, I'll hole up in my house with my guns and coins and bullion and eat beef stew and defend my family. (unlikely, but you never know) i guess what I'm saying is that it's usually a mistake to overextend yourself in any one direction, just as it's usually a mistake to not to have all the major bases covered. hope this helps, I'm on my 2nd long island iced tea, looking at my type set, and feeling pretty good

roadrunner

Founding Father, just can't see stocks as a WHOLE being cheap right now with their high price to earnings ratios. It just doesn't make sense to me that the excesses that were built up over the past 15-20 years are now resolved. Honestly, very little has yet been accomplished to clean up the mess. Seems more probable that stocks have entered a very long, cyclical bear market that could take many years to sort out. The long term momentum is still clearly downward for stocks, yet upward for gold.

roadrunner

FoundingFather

I don't agree with you about the long-term momentum for stocks mainly because I believe the long-term outlook for American corporate and economic growth is extremely promising. We are a strong country, and there are lots of new opportunities coming about, despite the current climate. It might take a long time, or maybe not -- but eventually, I believe, there will be lots of expansion in a myriad of fields. The current mess is now a lack of corporate spending which will eventually recover, and valuations have come back down to something a lot closer to reality. I'm not a market-timer, and proudly so, but I do think that more and more companies will gradually, over time, be added to the list of ones doing well and making money right now -- in fact, many companies have done very well since the "tech bubble" bursted. Corporate fiascos, war, speculative bubbles crashing, terrorist attacks, etc. are all things that create a lot of fear and hesitancy in the markets. I'm not a market-timer, and proudly so, but historically that has been a good time to buy. Short-term, who knows, but for the investor with a 15+ year horizon -- the basic American potential and ability is still the strongest on the planet. But let's get to the real reason I said "stocks."

This thread's subject and initial post is basically asking about what seems yucky right now, but has a lot of potential for the up side. Ray asked "What should we buy, that is LOW or going down, that has potential to go up in the future?" The answer, among others, is stocks.

FoundingFather

Baley, I'm with you. Diversification among and within asset classes, sticking with quality and buying regularly to avoid market-timing is what most people should be doing. If one particular thing gets out of whack with the pie chart you've made for your assets, you start selling it off and spreading the joy.

That basic rule of rebalancing alone would have prevented many people who lost half or more of their stock investments from doing so. Just rebalancing within their stock holdings would have helped a great deal too -- for example, if they kept their technology holdings to no more than 25% of their entire stock portfolio they couyld have protected themselves better.

The bottom line: most people were too greedy and not diversified among asset classes enough. If they were, they would have had something like (as a fast example) 7% CDs locked in at the start of 2000, with some bond funds (which have done extremely well since the crash), and stock indexes out of the technology sector (many of which have posted gains each year since the crash). Another problem was that so many were "market timing" -- believing there was a new era for stocks and fundamentals in the "new economy and world" and that stocks would do well because the internet just started, etc.. all timing guesses instead of balance.

supercoin

There is plenty of fear and uncertainty in the markets which SHOULD be good (for buying) but unfortunately I don't think prices reflect that. Prices have not crashed to the point where they are historically "cheap". In past market crashes, stocks have gone from being over-expensive to over-cheap. It remains to be seen whether we can avoid that (due to a "new economy and world", perhaps ) or if another crash is needed to wash things out.

We've been spoiled over the last 20 years or so in the stock market, and it's certainly possible that we may now find out what "long-term" stock market investing really means. There have 10+ year periods in the past where the stock market has returned essentially zero.

Personally, I've been almost entirely out of stocks for some time but am planning to trickle in a chunk over the next two years, on the theory that if we do crash hard it will be sometime within that period and I'll be averaged-in near the bottom. And if we don't crash, that's ok by me too, of course.

As far as alternatives for long-term investing, I believe gold has an absolutely terrible track record compared to stocks. And in fact a pretty terrible record compared to any number of more conservative investments. So before you sell your stocks and buy gold, you might want to put gold prices in a spreadsheet and see for yourself. Shorter-term trading or speculation is a different story, of course.

If you're entrepreneurial in nature, you can always cash out everything and invest in yourself -- at least you'll have more control over your investment's performance. Don't start a coin business, though.

FoundingFather

"There is plenty of fear and uncertainty in the markets which SHOULD be good (for buying) but unfortunately I don't think prices reflect that. Prices have not crashed to the point where they are historically "cheap". In past market crashes, stocks have gone from being over-expensive to over-cheap"

You are right, and it might not matter that we aren't historically cheap by many guidelines. I agree with much of what you write, but I believe that what you write is also support for the approach of highly respecting and maintaining a disciplined asset pie. It not only helps sell off after run offs and buy things cheaper, it adequately protects you from the risk you describe in not knowing when a "real" or further may or may not happen.

That really is the ultimate answer to Ray's question (from me, at least), but stocks was a good short one that fits his criteria

roadrunner

Supercoin,

What you say makes sense. I think gold is ok for the short term. If
we also get a paradighm type shift in gold becoming linked to support currencies again then we will be in a for bonus...... a long term gold bull market and more stable currencies. Gold looks ok for the short term (1 year +). I also agree that stocks look very poor for the short term too. And that short term could be 2-10 years. The long term, maybe 10-30 years looks brighter. The Elliot Wavers suggest that we are entering a very long term down cycle unlike 99% us have lived through as an adult. Who knows. There is still no maniacal action in gold and silver. I hope that doesn't happen as a stable but slowly increasing gold market is good for coins. But like most manias, you can't keep the public from buying something that's
"hot." Does anyone know how much a beannie baby set goes for?

roadrunner

michael

for me i think roadrunner summed it up really very good with the coin and gold thing!

also for me and pre 1915 proof ms coin in choice to gem and higher with tremendous eye appeal also

buff nicks in superb gem with exceptional eye appeal and also the proof 1936 to 42 coinage also in gem and higher with incredible eye appeal

also gem and higher walkers ms with incredible eye appeal

wspecially any rainbow toned 41 s!

and 1820 to 35 silver in choice to gem with incredible eye appeal

also really especially and proof pre 1915 silver nickel and copper in DEEP/ULTRA CAMEO!! or coins that are strong cameos! like borderline deep cameos in cameo holders where there are few to no deep cameos!!

and deep cameo gem proof barber quarters 1900 1915 super rare!!

also later date barber dimes after 1912 in proof gem and higher cameo!!

gem dmpl morgans pcgs!!

any better date pl morgan in 63 and above!!

proof red brown exceptional eye appealling 67 indians

superb gem ms copper nickel indians!

gem and higher early commems and even moreso with monster toning!

sincerely michael

michael

also excpetional eye appealling spot streak free ms 64/65 saints ngc pcgs and anx if all there!! i guess icg also if all there

sincerely michael

michael

pre 1915 gem and higher exceptional eye appealling business strike coins!

i am sure there are more but the above three psots are a short list!

sincerely michael