Advice on auction bidding - what would you do?

Blade

What would you bid in the following scenario? I am trying to figure out a strategy for a coin in the upcoming FUN auction.

The coin is graded PCGS MS62. You believe it is a very high end 62 with one of the best strikes you have seen. The only thing keeping it out of a 63 holder (and it's a call at the plate) is some light chatter in the obverse fields. Since the coin is small, it is not highly noticeable like it would be on a Morgan $.

Numismedia prices are $530 in MS62 and $1,660 in MS63, so it is a big 3X jump.

Let's say for sake of argument that the coin will NOT upgrade to a full 63, but it is in the top 5% of 62's. What would you bid if you really wanted the coin?

Placid

Wait until the last day to bid online then see how much the highest bid is then add 50%.
Then watch the live auction part and if someone outbids my max maybe counter bid depending how high it goes and just how bad I want it.

IrishMike

Tom, good question, been there done that. First I wouldn't use those price guides, they truly don't reflect the market. I would search Heritage and Bowers for recent sales. If it is a high end 62, the dealers at the auction will pick up on it like crows on a road kill. My guess is you will pay closer to 63 money than 62 if your description is accurate. Depending on how badly you want the coin you could do a close out bid on line, meaning bid it close to 63 money including the juice. Also many of us will be there, if you want one of us to confirm your take on the coin, I am sure we would do this. I won't be in till late Wednesday so if goes up Wednesday can't help you.

mbbiker

IF those prices were right, i would bid around $1300 with buyers fees.

Singapore

If this coin is also considered by others as a very likely upgrade opp., I believe the winning bidder will ultimately be paying just slightly less than wholesale 63 money (lets assume thats 1300 per mbbiker's post, though I didn't check all recent sales to confirm).

In which case the new owner will either do well (assuming they / you are considering it to resell) when it upgrades or lose money if it doesn't.

Its a risk. And one that someone buying 100 coins at the show would probably take - a guy buying one coin to resell probably shouldn't.

If you're buying it to keep and think its your best opp. to secure a 63-looking piece for less than 63 money you may well be right. In which case the 1300 may be more justifiable for you.

Does that make sense?

Blade

Well, I know in my heart you guys may be right. The Heritage value index is $450-$550 in 62, $1,000-$1,200 in 63. I don't want to pay more than $700 and may get priced out on this one. Also, and this really stinks, since I live in Texas - the same state as Heritage - I will get stung with 8% Sales tax. So I am already at a $60 disadvantage to everyone else.

I was hoping a 20-25% uplift on the typical $500 price in grade would be enough, but someone may want to gamble.

Mike - thanks for the offer to help. I know a few people heading to Orlando and that is a good idea.

keithdagen

Tom,

The Heritage Value Index usually seems pretty low, and I've had some guys from Heritage explain it to me, but it just doesn't always jive. My suggestion would be to take the other price sources they factor (CDN, PCGS, Numismedia) and go with one of the higher ones as a start, then look at the auction archives for similar material.

If the coin is really PQ for the grade, odds are it will end up above any of the posted guide prices.

braddick

Blade, it sounds like your value/price you are willing to pay is about right. In the long run we're always happiest with a coin that is in the upper 5% of the grade vs the lower 5% of the next grade jump.

Keith- it's good to have you back to posting "here" other than "there".

Lakesammman

Problem is, your bidding sight unseen against those who have seen it. If you see alot of action during the live bidding, it's a pretty good clue that those in attendance agree with you and you can bid accordingly.