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Is Singapore Blowing Smoke?
Typetone
Posts: 1,622 ✭
Or, should I say Singapore is blowing smoke
.
Look, his basic comment is that people are paying too much to buy low pop moderns. Of course that's what he's saying. If low pop moderns cost $1 each he wouldn't be commenting. What he thinks is silly is that collectors often pay thousands of dollars for low pop modern pieces.
But that's all blowing smoke by someone not in the game, or able to get in the game. How much is too much to pay? In a free, competitive market, you pay too much when you are paying more than you have too. It seems like these low pop modern buyers are paying a lot because the coins are incredibly rare in high grade. Supply and demand are equating at these levels. If Singapore or anyone else thinks the price is too high, then why aren't they selling any to those who want to buy. The answer is simple. They don't have any to sell, and they can't get any to sell. They are blowing smoke.
How many times has someone come on the board and talked about how many zillions of whatever exist for every date. How you can just buy a bunch of rolls and make some finest graded pieces. Inevitably, these people do that and then you never hear from them again, because the 67s they thought they were going to get turned out to be 63s and 64s. No instant riches there. So the challenge goes out to Singapore. I'm not interested in your uninformed opinions about what is too expensive. What would interest me is if you support your opinion with sales offers. Otherwise its just smoke, puff puff.
Singapore and others who comment often state that many more finest graded will be made. But, how do they know? Are they making any? Sure a few more 67 C/N IKEs for example will be made, but high end collectors know that. Price bids are based on an estimate of how many more will be made and how fast. People who collect these know their series. They know which dates are easy to make, and which are really tough and price accordingly. These folks are sophisticated and clever. They are some of the smartest collectors around. They might be risk takers and speculators, but they do not throw their money away for nothing.
As to your comment that modern collectors can't tell the difference between 66s through 70s. Frankly, if I were a modern collector I would find your comments condescending
. I believe that people who spend thousands on a grade can surely tell the difference. Much as might be thought, these folks are not stupid. They are savvy, skilled collectors. Go show Registry Coin or Mitch some 66 through 68 Roosies or Washingtons. Sure as anything, they can pick out the 68s.
Finally, don't tell me about how ugly modern designs are and how beautiful some other coin is. That's just about taste. Collectors changing tastes drive demand and ultimately price. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and high end sophisticated collectors factor that in as well.
My personal story. Except for 20th century type, I am not a modern collector. Until recently however, I was one of the world's foremost mint-state Eisenhower Dollar collectors (my opinion of course). I loved the coins and thought high end examples were beautiful (sorry to those who don;t agree). I bought many finest grade pieces, some for thousands of dollars. I often paid 10x for pieces people thought I was crazy to buy. The finest grade for any C/N piece is MS67. These often cost 10x to 20x the price of a 66. I bought these when they could be found. I could easily tell the difference between a true 66 and a true 67. I passed on some overgraded 67s and got a few 66s upgraded. I believed myself to be sophisticated, savy, and expert on the series. My holdings were clearly speculative but also I felt, well thought out. The day came when I thought the price for low pop pieces was too high. So rather than write junk, I simply offered material on the market. And, yes, I made a great return. If you think something is too high sell. If you are not selling but just talking, that's blowing smoke. Time will tell if I made the correct decision. Another great collection sold after mine at I think even higher prices. I think cs high end IKE prices will continue to go up. Those who bought my pieces will hopefully and probably profit. My view was that other areas of the market had greater appreciation potential, and so I swapped. Simple as that, supply and demand. As we say in my business, money talks and BS walks.
So, in conclusion, those who bash high prices for moderns or any other coin, how about offering some on the market. If you can't, don't, or won't, you are quite frankly just blowing smoke.
Merry Christmas
Cheers
Greg
.Look, his basic comment is that people are paying too much to buy low pop moderns. Of course that's what he's saying. If low pop moderns cost $1 each he wouldn't be commenting. What he thinks is silly is that collectors often pay thousands of dollars for low pop modern pieces.
But that's all blowing smoke by someone not in the game, or able to get in the game. How much is too much to pay? In a free, competitive market, you pay too much when you are paying more than you have too. It seems like these low pop modern buyers are paying a lot because the coins are incredibly rare in high grade. Supply and demand are equating at these levels. If Singapore or anyone else thinks the price is too high, then why aren't they selling any to those who want to buy. The answer is simple. They don't have any to sell, and they can't get any to sell. They are blowing smoke.
How many times has someone come on the board and talked about how many zillions of whatever exist for every date. How you can just buy a bunch of rolls and make some finest graded pieces. Inevitably, these people do that and then you never hear from them again, because the 67s they thought they were going to get turned out to be 63s and 64s. No instant riches there. So the challenge goes out to Singapore. I'm not interested in your uninformed opinions about what is too expensive. What would interest me is if you support your opinion with sales offers. Otherwise its just smoke, puff puff.
Singapore and others who comment often state that many more finest graded will be made. But, how do they know? Are they making any? Sure a few more 67 C/N IKEs for example will be made, but high end collectors know that. Price bids are based on an estimate of how many more will be made and how fast. People who collect these know their series. They know which dates are easy to make, and which are really tough and price accordingly. These folks are sophisticated and clever. They are some of the smartest collectors around. They might be risk takers and speculators, but they do not throw their money away for nothing.
As to your comment that modern collectors can't tell the difference between 66s through 70s. Frankly, if I were a modern collector I would find your comments condescending
. I believe that people who spend thousands on a grade can surely tell the difference. Much as might be thought, these folks are not stupid. They are savvy, skilled collectors. Go show Registry Coin or Mitch some 66 through 68 Roosies or Washingtons. Sure as anything, they can pick out the 68s.Finally, don't tell me about how ugly modern designs are and how beautiful some other coin is. That's just about taste. Collectors changing tastes drive demand and ultimately price. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and high end sophisticated collectors factor that in as well.
My personal story. Except for 20th century type, I am not a modern collector. Until recently however, I was one of the world's foremost mint-state Eisenhower Dollar collectors (my opinion of course). I loved the coins and thought high end examples were beautiful (sorry to those who don;t agree). I bought many finest grade pieces, some for thousands of dollars. I often paid 10x for pieces people thought I was crazy to buy. The finest grade for any C/N piece is MS67. These often cost 10x to 20x the price of a 66. I bought these when they could be found. I could easily tell the difference between a true 66 and a true 67. I passed on some overgraded 67s and got a few 66s upgraded. I believed myself to be sophisticated, savy, and expert on the series. My holdings were clearly speculative but also I felt, well thought out. The day came when I thought the price for low pop pieces was too high. So rather than write junk, I simply offered material on the market. And, yes, I made a great return. If you think something is too high sell. If you are not selling but just talking, that's blowing smoke. Time will tell if I made the correct decision. Another great collection sold after mine at I think even higher prices. I think cs high end IKE prices will continue to go up. Those who bought my pieces will hopefully and probably profit. My view was that other areas of the market had greater appreciation potential, and so I swapped. Simple as that, supply and demand. As we say in my business, money talks and BS walks.
So, in conclusion, those who bash high prices for moderns or any other coin, how about offering some on the market. If you can't, don't, or won't, you are quite frankly just blowing smoke.
Merry Christmas
Cheers
Greg
0
Comments
Russ, NCNE
Savvy collectors like Greg understand and appreciate the "swap" game. When a series (or a grading company's coins) skyrockets, you can either keep buying at the amazing new levels (which could be OK if you truly believe the move was long overdue and may continue), or "swap" into more "logical" plays. For example, I would have loved to buy the pop 1/0 1949(d) Wash quarter in NGC-MS68 last week on Teletrade - but, not at $16,000. My nice PCGS-MS67 specimen at under $1500 will do just fine. Instead, I recently took some "Wash quarter" money and picked up a couple neat 19th Century coins and some highly neglected ulta modern coins. More on that, after FUN.
12-18 months ago on these boards, I was offering to pay upwards of $6,000/coin for PCGS-MS68 silver Wash quarters sight-unseen (and more sight-seen) because I personally had confidence in those coins and their relative rarity. My price was basically laughed at and myriad board members told me publicly and via PM that they were going to make me some coins and "laugh all the way to the bank". I bought a number of coins at levels well over my sight-unseen price, BUT ZERO FROM BOARD MEMBERS. Now, we see relatively common date NGC-MS68 Washingtons fetching up to $15,000 - $20,000/coin!
4 months ago at a PCGS dinner attended by numerous National "bigtime dealers", the issue of modern coins came up and "how worthless they all were". I basically offered the room of dealers $1000 for a 1983(p) quarter in PCGS-MS67 if they could deliver it to me by the next scheduled dinner (which just took place about 10 days ago). One of the dealers commented that it simply wouldn't be worth his time to make $1000. So, I agreed to buy (20) coins at $20,000. Several dealers were considering heading back to the office that night to grab some 1983(p) rolls and "cash out" $20,000. Others just laughed and laughed at my foolishness to offer $20,000 for $5.00 worth of clad quarters (I believe my friend Coingame2000 was in this group - and I say this in a nice way as we were really having a good time that night)
Well, I kept my $20,000 ready in my checking account and went into the dinner the other night curious to see how many coins I would be buying. Well, curious, but also confident that I already knew just how many coins I would be buying that night. You know how this story ends
Sorry for my unapproved opinion.
Hope all have a Merry Christmas and a very numismatic New Year.
granted emergency Christmas approval. The Christmas Bear
Camelot
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
It truely amazes me how some collectors can be so negative about a series they don't collect. Regarding Modern prices, time will tell who is correct. Will they continue to rise? Will they tumble? Or perhaps, just remain the same.
Our hobby has shown it's price swings. Perhaps that's what we're seeing in the modern series now. If not, we'll live! It is interesting to see the lively bantering that takes place over issues like this tough.
Merry Christmas!
You can express any opinion you want. You can bash any coin you want. All I am saying is that I would be impressed if you offered some overpriced modern coins for sale and not just yapped
Merry Christmas
Greg
First, I think you could ask just about anybody who knows me and they would say, very quickly, that I have never, hardly even one time, blown smoke about anything, except a little bit in college but I was under a lot of stress and running with the wrong crowd.
Now, moving on, if I understand you correctly, I can only offer my opinion here in the forum if I am then prepared to start a business and sell some coins to some guy named Greg that I don't even know? I don't want to be rude, but thats a little wack-o, isn't it?
That leads me to believe you didn't inhale either. Correct?
That's the clue we've been waiting for fellow forum members. I now know who Singapore is. Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce... Bill Clinton.
Funny, I didn't know you collected coins Bill. I thought you only collected ladies lingerie.
I am defending the Sac series - but, the "truth may set you free". For every Sac price you might point to that dropped, you can point equally to one that has risen. For example:
1. The 2000(p) coins in PCGS-MS69 originally sold for around $1500-$2000 best I can tell. I did not buy any, but heard about the coin company that was lucky enough to make them and sell them. Today, I suspect the coin would sell above those levels, but certainly not beneath those levels. This is a highly sought after "type" coin as well.
2. 2001(p) PCGS-MS69- ditto #1, although the selling prices might have been closer to $2000-$2500 best I can tell.
3. 2001(d) PCGS-MS68 in the $1200-$1500 range. No one has sold one that I know of from these -4- coins that have remained pop 4 for a long time. These sure didn't drop to $8
4. Goodacres in PCGS-MS69. First coins sold around $4000. Pure "speculation" especially since #1 (same date) were only worth $2000-$2500. Now, I believe these coins have settled in around the $2000-$2500.
5. 2000(d) PCGS-MS68. I sold these to forum members at $199/coin 12-18 months ago. Many forum members bought them. Todays price: around $225.
6. 2001(d) PCGS-MS67. I sold these mostly on ebay at around $150-$175/coin a year ago. My last BIT on ebay a day ago was around $160.
7. 2002(d): PCGS-MS68. I sold these to board members at $400-$500/coin when I got them in earlier this year. I think I would still ask around that amount if I got one in today.
8. Coins like most MS66 and MS67 Sacs have dropped from their highs. Most of these drops can be measured in a couple dollars per coin with one exception of 2002(p) where there was, once again, speculation" the coin might be very tough in high grade (I recall a board member offering $100/coin for MS67's that are now worth $15). If all you ever did was buy 2002(p) slabbed Sacs, you would have been killed (anyone out there "mortgage the farm" on 2002(p) Sacs?)
Does this scenario look like $300 Sacs going to $8? Does the Sac series look like the average collector lost 97%? Maybe I missed something?
These figures are best I know. If anyone wants to add something, please do. I am not supporting or attacking Sacs as a series - just addressing the $300 to $8" comment. Wondercoin
can look up a price for nearly any classic coin in high grade it is not so easy with mod-
erns. Coin World has made a comprehensive guide for moderns so it will be easier for
people, but in all probability there will be some changes in these prices as the market
develops and some coins are found to be worth more or less than the currently listed
prices. Those who have jumped into moderns with no knowledge and lots of money
have probably made some mistakes. If they are buying a range of material then they
probably have done all right because the prices have been going up sharply and are
beginning to increase ever more sharply. It's certainly true these huge increases can
not continue indefinitely, but the fact remains that the aggregate demand is still quite
small and is still exploding upward!
This is one of the reasons, Singapore, that I was infuriated with your comments.
I may be new to this board, but I can tell you what is going on in the Modern Roosevelt series just as good as the next guy.
I made a comment earlier in another post that was this: I don't care who you are and how much money you have, just try and put the Modern Roosevelts set together, not to mention any other Modern set. IT IS A CHALLANGE.
Frankly my theory is this: I will not collect any coin that wasn't minted by the United States Mint. I am a patriot and I don't have the money or time for anything else.
Paul
Later, Paul.
You can say anything you want and give any opinion you want. All I am saying is that unless you are in the market buying and selling, then your opinions are just words and no substance. Since you don't buy or sell moderns your view on pricing has little moxy. You say people are paying too much, yet you are not selling to them. Are you offering a coin for $5,000 that is selling for $10,000 elsewhere. If so then you might have data to say that $10,000 is too much. Or, can you sight examples where low pop moderns are being offered at a price but trading at a higher price somewhere else. If so, then you have something to say. But, you haven't and probably can't sight those examples, because with all due respect, you really don't know what you are talking about
The only piece of market data you have provided is that you are not a buyer of low pop moderns at current prices. That's really wonderful. At current prices I'm not a buyer of Van Gogh's or professional baseball players either, and who cares? The point is that there are those who pay millions for Van Gogh's or baseball players. They are the ones who have opinions the world cares about.
We listen to people like Mitch because they are in these markets everyday buying and selling for themselves and their customers. What Mitch says about moderns is worth listening too.
Recently, I have given my opinion on 70 DCAMS. I think my opinion on the subject is valuable (do others agree
In your case, I would value your opinions on colonials. If I were in that market, I would seek our your advice. But frankly, your opinions on moderns, aren't worth a hoot
BTW, you don't have to offer me coins. As I said, I am not the best buyer for most moderns. However, there are plently of serious buyers waiting to buy pieces you want to sell that you consider overpriced. So, either get in the game, or realize that those in the game aren't really going to take you too seriously.
I used to price bash as well. I was the first guy screaming about the ridiculous price paid for the 1933 Saint. Then I realized how stupid I must have sounded. I was not a bidder, I don't have another to sell, and in fact have never bought a mint state gold coin minted before 1950 (and very few minted after). In short, I didn't know what I was talking about, and would guess the players in high end gold, if they even read my post, would think it inane. The only information I gave is that I was not a buyer at that price, which was no news to anyone. So now I try not to comment on paid prices, unless I am a player.
Merry Christmas
Greg
Dbldie55:
You know I respect you, but what's with your example? You sight an ex $300 that now sells for $8. That doesn't make any case. It's an n of one. There are all kinds of coins that used to cost more than they do now. After the fact, we can all pick the winners and losers. Is the coin worth $8 now? That's the question. Of course I won't pay $300 now, it's an $8 coin. Would you pay $1000 for an 81S Morgan in 65. Of course not. Why not ask if I would pay $1,000 for a 71D IKE in MS67. That's what I paid 2 years ago, and sold for $4,000 two months ago. It's where things are going from here, not what's already happened.
And Merry Christmas to you too
Greg
Could not have been said any better. As a collector of strickly modern's (1950-Present) I surely can tell the difference between lower graded coins. The market for modern's is growing and as you did, I sold a set of coins (Kennedy's/Roosevelts) at a very nice profit-well over 25%. This was done in less than 1 year. Money then re-invested in my collection's.
As you so adeptly pointed out, if you study the market, there are some exceptional deals for "us" collector's-if time is taken doing your homework and seller's can make a nice sum with foresight and astute buying. My "profits" are re-invested in the series I collect, enabling me to purchase some fine coins with little out-of-pocket.
Great response!!!
TG
Dbldie55: Come on - you are too smart to be erroneously summarizing like that
Beisdes, if you wanted to "retire", you needed to have bought "moderns" 4-5 years ago (like Typetone) - sorry, you have already missed the "retirement" boat for moderns. ONLY KIDDING, dbldie - now don't take that last comment seriously. In fact, PM me, I want to discuss the great opportunities in Sacs
Merry Christmas Dbldie55 and everyone else out there, be you modern, classic or a "mixed breed" (like myself).
Wondercoin.
You know as well as I that many moderns will go down and many will go up in the years ahead. Some will prove to be great buys and some will prove to be losers. They are all speculative, like any coins are. And BTW, I would take up Mitch on his offer to put you in some moderns. He might just get you in the right ones
Cheers
Greg
Merry Christmas dbldie55, to you and Mrs. Rooney as well!
I just sold my incomplete Sac collection on ebay.. 2000(p) MS68, 2000(d) MS68, 2001(p) MS68, 2001(d) MS67. Only one of these coins is a top pop, the 2000 (d). These 4 coins complete with shipping for $385, well under the price I paid. According to your listing I should have gotten $385 for just the 2000(d) and 2001(d). So the other 2 coins arent worth much but there are only something like 4 or 6 coins graded higher!! Where did I go wrong here?
I sold my Sacs is because my interest in the series significantly dropped, when the prices took a dive. And, I still dont believe the Goodacre and Millenium coin should be part of a circulation strike series. But mostly, I think people are making more of these all the time. And as people make more of these coins, the prices will drop.
We'll see what happens with the clad Washington series, but that is a different series altogether. It's 64 coins and there aren't enough top pops to satisfy all the current collectors, meaning supply is short of demand.
The bottom line with modern coins is, and I speak of auctions only, is that there are underbidders for all these coins that are willing to pay just a tad less for the same coin. This is what is called the market. However, once a collector obtains the elusive Ms67 coin for a particular date, he is out of the game for that date. So the next MS67 coin sells cheaper if there arent any new collectors interested. Its a little tricky, but with the clad Washingtons I think there will be more interest as time goes on. There were 3 new registry particapants added this week alone.
An example of a coin selling too high is the 1998D Washington (pop 6/0) on Teletrade recently. The coin sold first for $900 without the juice. The coin was returned and put back up and sold last week for $675. So, the pricing is out of whack a bit. It is probably 2 collectors bidding it up and then the second time, one dropped out earlier. Although I have "made" this coin (I do have one ready to be sent in), I think evventually the coin(s) will make. They are out there, I just dont think people are looking for them yet.
Anyway, just my opinion and experiences. Collect what you want and be happy with your purchases. Whether it be Sacs or Colonials. There's a market for everyone, some smaller than others.
WWQ
You know, as well as I do, that things go "cheap" and "expensive" on ebay". There is no "rhyme or reason" much of the time. I think you paid around $750 for your 1941(d) quarter in PCGS-MS67 on ebay earlier this month if memory serves me right - want to try to convince me that is the "fair market value" on that coin?
One comment about that 1998(d) Wash Quarter in PCGS-MS67 (pop 6/0) at $900 or $650, or whatever it finally sold at. Let's assume your assumption is correct and the coin was bought and then returned (presumably due to quality concerns). Then, the $650 price is more than fair for a "lower end" specimen - right? After all, what is an MS66 worth - less than $50 - right? Now, if that 1998(d) quarter was very "high end" for the grade, I would gladly pay around $1250 for the PCGS-MS67 coin sight-seen. My point here is in many cases, prices on "pop top" clad quarters are linked to their grade quality. I have personally bought/handled all (4) premier PCGS MS clad quarter sets that have sold to date (3 registered PCGS #1 sets and 1 unregistered #1 PCGS set). These clad quarter sets each contained "special coins". I will personally be surprised if the vast majority of the clad quarter dates in the series ever see a single PCGS-MS68 specimen slabbed in the next 5 years. With the passage of this time, I believe it may become more clear why it is important to buy top quality MS67 specimens of many of the dates, especially pre-1996. And, I suspect you'll be there WWQ with a spectacular clad quarter collection when collectors start taking notice of this series
Thank you for your comments, as always. They are sound and make sense.
As for the Sacs. I figured I would let the "eBay" market determine the price. There were enough people looking at the auction that I thought it would sell for maybe $500. I was wrong, but still wanted to run a true auction. Next time, maybe I could / would consign something like that to you, if you are interested. It would obviously have to make sense for both of us if you know what I mean.
As for the 41-d MS67. Turns out the coin was a counterfeit slab. For those who do not know this happens, a counterfeit slab is one that has been opened along the edges of the slab and the original coin taken out and replaced by a lesser graded coin. I never received the coin, but I never paid for it either. I wanted to use escrow and the seller gave me some BS story and didnt want to agree to use it. But, even at "double-up" prices, I wouldnt sell it. The coin in that grade will be worth much more.
As for my clad set, I know the interest is growing but the "players" havent really entered the market yet, not that I've seen anyway. Some of those "special coins", like my 1994-P, pop 2/0, 1988-D, pop 4/0 will probably keep their pops in single digit for a long time to come. But we will see.
BTW - Do you know when the #1 set will be retired from the Registry and if some of those coins will become available?
WWQ
The #1 MS Clad Washington 1965 to 1998 set has been retired. Mitch has the all the coins that were inthe set you would have to contact him to find out what is available.
PCGS THE ONLY WAY TO GO
Ed
Wondercoin.
Sounds like the seller figured that out and found a convenient way out of the auction.
This seller has done this before. Now, I cannot verify for sure that the slab is counterfeit, but it IS extremely suspicious. Before I paid for the auction, I reviewed the seller's feedback and noticed a recent neg from a fellow washington collector about being screwed on a counterfeit slab.
So before I paid for the auction, I had a telephone conversation with the collector about this seller. Turns out his "counterfeit coin", which was confiscated by PCGS, was a 1940-D MS67. He paid roughly $2300 for it and never received a dime back.
I offered the seller escrow and he continues to not agree about going that route to settle the auction. Saying it costs too much, takes too much time, etc. I offered up front to pay all fees and this would be at no expense to him.
To date it is still unresolved and frankly, I do not know what else to do about it. I cannot verify that the 1941-D is a counterfeit slab but it seems awfully suspicious. The cert number comes up as a valid coin, but I am not willing to throw away $750 with no guarantee to recoup my money if the coin is bad.
TDN - I dont think your post is the case. I believe the seller is the counterfeiter. At least thats what the above would indicate.
WWQ: Please PM me with the information concerning this collector who is out $2300. Wondercoin
Hopefully, PCGS researched the insert tag to see where the coin may have originally come from.
This is a good lesson to be on "high alert" to examine all slabs for possible foul play.
Wondercoin.
This last post of yours (and a few preceding it) contained some really important information that would be good to share with all forum members.
I have a fear that a lot of them aren't going to read through a whole post about Singapore blowing smoke to get to it however.
You may want to repost the important info under a new title to ensure more people see it -
Just a thought,
Singapore
I have, in fact, spoken to PCGS about this specific matter and can assure you, it will be addressed.
What is important here is that this has happened before. During ANA this past summer is when I first heard of tampered slabs. The tamperer cuts open the slab along the edge and then takes out, in this case, the MS67 coin. It is then replaced by a lesser coin. I do not know what happens to the original coin, but I am sure it gets reslabbed somewhere, probably not PCGS.
Until this can be resolved the bottom line is, BEWARE that this can happen, but not too often since it is illegal.
I will let everyone know the outcome.
Cough, cough. Whew! Cough.
It is smokey in here. I should have worn a gas mask. I... cough, cough... will the next time I...cough, cough... view this thread.
Cough, cough.