1981 and newer just won't hold its value

uniship

6 months ago I decided to sell all my graded new stuff (1981- and newer). I mean, how hard will it be to get a 1989 griffey psa 8 in 20 years? well, in retrospect, it appears my thinking was in line. Prices have dropped considerably in just the last 6 months. There is just too much of it out there, and I suspect it will continue to drop. Ripkens McGwires and the like just had too much production, and they are still being graded everyday. I suspect in 5 years we will be able to purchase the same cards at 25% what we can now. Just my 2 cents - any thoughts on this philosophy?

yawie99

i pretty much agree with you and did the same thing with much of my '80s hockey collection within the last month. a few of the cards i sold may remain relative scarcities even when all is said and done, but supply, for the most part, will eventually catch up with demand for cards from that era - if it hasn't already.

the modern grading specials probably have probably swelled the population reports and i reckon there's still a ton of unopened/raw cards waiting to find their way into psa 9 and 10 holders. as much as i loved my oilers collection, it made sense to sell it so i could pick up a few key cards for my vintage sets in-progress.

braves72078

Pre 1980 stuff is the only way to go.

1420sports

I can see the 1981-83 issues retaining their value, and certain cards like 86 TT Bonds, 85 Clemens and Big Mac, and most HOFers still holding some value. But for the most part I agree. I do not like shiny, battery operated cards anyway.

Fabfrank

With modern cards the only ones that I see holding their value are the sets with numbered RC's. You know there are only X amount available. Like M. Vick SP Authentic RC, only 250 made. R. Moss and P. Manning 98 SP Authentic are limited to 2000.

Krems

I was thinking the same thing. You could see the price drops coming. I remember at first when the 85 McGwires started getting really hot. You couldn't find them at shows and dealers around here. I was buying them for book as they were going up. I averaged between $29 & $50 per card and ended up selling most between $90 & $150 for PSA 8's. I remeber going to my local dealer and asked to look at his McGwires and he said he didn't have any. Six months later I went back with a handful of 85 McGwire to work out a trade and he pulled out about a dozen McGwires and said he didn't need anymore. This was at the peak of demand. It was like the stock market...the higher the price went, the more people wanted to buy the cards. But the supply never ran out. The card was everywhere. 89 Griffeys were everywhere and so on. Along the same lines of supply and demand there should always be a market for 9's and 10's in these years, but that will change as the supply of those cards increases. If the market does continue to drop however, at some point I'll be back in buying some graded rookies and hall of famers, especially high end 8's for cheap.

gemint

No disagreement here. I would also argue that the you could include anything from 1974 and up. There's a ton of unopened still out there in addition to nice vending runs. It starts getting tougher to find from 1973 and back. The main thing holding the populations down from the mid to late 70s is the grading fees. If PSA comes out with a $3 or $4 special some day, you'll see a ton of high end material getting slabbed.

Wayne8348

Gemint,

Please help me out - where do you find 1974 vending? I've been looking for vending from this set but can't find it. I've never bought anything unopened before and want to try to find cards that way instead of just buying already graded on ebay. Any help would be appreciated.

wayne

robstar

I did the same thing with my modern material about 6 months ago as well, I had this feeling that this was going to happen in the modern market. Sold off late 70's and 80's graded and raw.
I managed at that time to make a decent profit on my initial investment in these items. Wanting to keep the funds in my hobby I put the money into vintage cards.

Truly amazing to see the drop in interest and value of modern cards in such a short period of time.
I hope it rebounds soon for the overall health of our great hobby.



Rob...