POP REPORT - IS IT A NUISNACE!!!!!!!??????
robr1967
Posts: 264
I wanted to post this topis and see what the world thought.
What does everyone think of the pop report?
Is it a nuisance to collectors? Should it be shut down?
Have you ever bought a card you thought to be a 1 of 1, only to find out later that it isn't?
Here is a perfect example for you to ponder.
I am collecting an older BB Bowman set. I was at the Ft. Washington show, and a dealer has a COMMON. This common had a pop of 2 in PSA-8. I saw the card and grabbed it to try and buy it. The dealer then told me, he meant to set that card aside, to put it into an auction at a later date. He thought the card might command $1,000 in an auction.
Now am I the only one or do you find this to be ridiculous?
I am getting very tired of this. I am starting to feel that if a collector pays a premium for a card that has a SCREWED UP POPULATION. PSA should be HELD RESPONSIBLE for retribution.
I AM THINKING THAT THE ONLY THING THAT POP REPORT IS GOOD FOR IS ANOTHER WAY FOR A DEALER TO CHARGE OUTRAGEOUS PRICES FOR CARDS.
SHOULD THE POP REPORT BE SHUT DOWN? Do set collectors care what the pop is on cards that they have?
Let me know what you think please.
Thanks
Rob
What does everyone think of the pop report?
Is it a nuisance to collectors? Should it be shut down?
Have you ever bought a card you thought to be a 1 of 1, only to find out later that it isn't?
Here is a perfect example for you to ponder.
I am collecting an older BB Bowman set. I was at the Ft. Washington show, and a dealer has a COMMON. This common had a pop of 2 in PSA-8. I saw the card and grabbed it to try and buy it. The dealer then told me, he meant to set that card aside, to put it into an auction at a later date. He thought the card might command $1,000 in an auction.
Now am I the only one or do you find this to be ridiculous?
I am getting very tired of this. I am starting to feel that if a collector pays a premium for a card that has a SCREWED UP POPULATION. PSA should be HELD RESPONSIBLE for retribution.
I AM THINKING THAT THE ONLY THING THAT POP REPORT IS GOOD FOR IS ANOTHER WAY FOR A DEALER TO CHARGE OUTRAGEOUS PRICES FOR CARDS.
SHOULD THE POP REPORT BE SHUT DOWN? Do set collectors care what the pop is on cards that they have?
Let me know what you think please.
Thanks
Rob
0
Comments
<< <i>PSA should be HELD RESPONSIBLE for retribution. >>
Ouch.
CU turns its lonely eyes to you
What's the you say, Mrs Robinson
Vargha bucks have left and gone away?
hey hey hey
hey hey hey
I totally agree with what you are saying. Many people take advantage of this as a tool to sell for a higher premium. I am guilty of this and I am not a dealer. What the population report does for the collector is very important. It allows the collector to know how difficult the card is going to be to find. Now with the Set Registry in place, many people are submitting cards that have a value of $.10. The population tells it all. In my sets that I collect, I gauge the population report versus the SMR. I might pay $75 for a PSA 7 common, however if the population report is low on the card I might pay 1.5X.
In all fairness to the dealers, they need to make money to stay in the business. They need to get top dollar for those items that they have. I have changed my view over the past four years on who I do business with. I only do business with those that I want to see succeed. We all have been screwed by dealers and we all have been screwed on Ebay. It is the way of life in this hobby.
Do I think we need to get rid of the population report? NO. It may not be accurrate, but it is real close. I use the population report just as I use the SMR.....a way to justify what to pay.
1954
Here is my thinking of it.
1. With the set registry, more people are looking to put together a graded set, so more people are looking for commons.
2. People who want to have the card now and have the available funds are willing to pay more for a "low pop" common so that they have the card. A lack of patience on their part.
3. The dealer is only doing this because of the market that has been created for these cards. Once the bigger collectors get their cards in 8's the prices go down...simple supply and demand...
4. As more get graded the supply will out weigh the demand and the prices will fall. Prime example is newer cards. (i.e. 1993 Pinnacle Derek Jeter PSA 10. When there were only 3 10's the card sold for $1,200 now there are over 20 PSA 10's and the card sells for around $200.)
5. PSA should NOT be held accountable because they are just grading the cards they only collect their grading fees, they do not profit off the sale of the card.
6. The pop report helps me to gauge the how many are out there and what is a reasonable price for them. It has helped me pick up many cards I may have looked over but ended up buying based on population. Plus PSA would not shut down the Pop report because they profit greatly off of this information.
7. Never think that you should buy a card because it is a 1 of 1 and that there will never be another of the same card graded in that condition. There are plenty of raw cards still out there that could be graded. I do however feel that raw vintage cards in high grade condition are starting to dry up slowly, but they are still out there. Especially if you pay an astronomical amount for a card that is a "1 of 1" then other dealers will get their card graded too and then the pop goes up. (i.e. 1963 Power Plus Card with Banks and Aaron sold in Sept 2000 for $7,481 when it was 1 of 2 9's then it sold for $4,888 in June 2001 then in Sept 2002 it only sold for $1,688) from Sept 2000 to December 2002 the population on that card has gone from 2 to 10 hence the drop in price....the card is more available in Mint 9 now.
My feeling is that you must use your own judgment....the population report is a good guide but should NOT be used as a crutch to making buying decisions. If you think it’s too much then just walk away. And if you have no urgency to buy the card then wait and you'll eventually see the card again, most likely at a lower price.
Thanks,
Carlo
I use the Population Report as I use other data publications...As a "guide".
From SMR, Beckett, boards like this one, to general knowledge, these are all considered "tools" for us to understand our hobby a little better.
If you are collecting a certain year or player, aren't you collecting knowledge yourself?.. You should know that each set has it's unique character. I hear you say that the dealers are out to get the most out of you the collector.....Is that a problem??? No dealer that I know, has a gun held to your head demanding you to fork over more money than you think the card is worth. Too much $ for you? DON'T PAY IT. Just wait for the next one to come along (and it will!).
Card collecting has been going on for 100 years, and will be here 100 years from now.
We all need as much data as possible in order to make the most accurate choices. Yes, we need the Population Report , even if it's not totally correct.
My $ .02
Larry.
email....emards4457@msn.com
CHEERS!!
I guess my rant was hitting on the wrong area here.
When I mentioned that PSA should be held responsible, I meant in the case of having the POP WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
an example would be if you bought a card that was being sold as a 1 of 1. Then found that another existed. The pop report would then have been proven to be WRONG. But your still paying a premium for a card that was being sold under the premise of it being the only one in existance.
This is where I am saying that PSA should be responsible for having either having the POP REPORT correct or getting rid of it all together.
Again my 2 cents.
Rob
You could buy a card today that is a 1/1 and tomorrow I could submit 10 of that card and your card instantly becomes 1/11. That's is not PSAs fault. I don't see how it could ever bee 100% accurate without it updating instantly that each card is slabbed and 'knowing' when each card is cracked out of a holder.
If you don't like the POP report then don't use it, just as if a card is being sold for too much $$$ then don't buy it.
On paying big premiums for low pop cards, my advice is to wait on post 1960 cards--more will pop up, especially as you get closer to 1970 and beyond. For pre-war and early post-war cards in 8 with low pops it could be a different decision.
Davalillo
(1) Noboby is forcing you to use the population report.
(2) Nobody can force you to pay a dime more than what you are willing to pay.
Quite frankly, I love the pop report. There are some truly rare "common" cards out there and this provides some data on those cards. The trick is in knowing which are anomolies. Do your research before making a purchase decision. The set registry has the emails of many advanced collectors of any set that you're working on. Most are willing to help fellow set builders.
Regards,
Alan
I know of some instances where the pop report is wrong in the 1957 Topps set...specifically in regard to the checklists....as I have a 1957 Topps 3/4 checklist that has a Bazooka back to it and the Pop report says that there are
8's
CHECKLIST 3/4 BAZOOKA 0
CHECKLIST 3/4 BIG BLONY 6
However I have a 1957 Topps Checklist 3/4 PSA 8 with a Bazooka back. Now obviously the population of the Bazooka back checklist is wrong since I have one. But does that also mean that the population of the Big Bloy is wrong as well and should be reduced by 1?
Carlo
I use the pop report as a guide. I'm assuming there will be errors and discrepancies- and not only that, but that if I see a POP of 1, I usually assume that there will usually be another available (esp. for most post 1973 material). Premiums on the card exist only b/c supply and demand is a part of our economy and buyers will pay what they think it's worth.
If some dealer wants a ridiculous amount of money for a common, then it's your call whether or not to pay.
I'll take you back to our transaction earlier this year regarding a low POP 1950 Bowman FB Joe Geri #19. Pop is less than 10 (I think). Commons are worth $50. You asked for $95 b/c it was a low pop card. I thought that was fair and paid promptly for it. I'm assuming that a few more Geri's will surface in the future, but for now, I was willing to take you up on it.
I do see your point though, if PSA came back later and said, "oops, there's actually 20 of them out there", then I would have a serious problem with PSA. But again, errors will always exist (esp. with this company that we're dealing with- we're talkin about human people grading cards and entering data into a system) so I guess I have to take it all with a grain of salt.
<< <i>Should it be shut down? >>
No Way! It is a great reference, which can be used if you like for buying and selling. I even utilize it on cards I don't own or even intend to own, just to see how many 52 Topps Mantle 8's are floating around as example. The more info. you have, the better off you'll be...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
<< <i>When I mentioned that PSA should be held responsible, I meant in the case of having the POP WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >>
No way. An example would be my recent thread regarding resubmissions. Is it PSA's fault if I don't send in the old labels so they can update the POP report? No, it's my fault for doing a disservice to my fellow collectors.
<< <i>DON'T PAY IT. Just wait for the next one to come along (and it will!). >>
King Kellogg,
You may want to qualify that statement with regard to particular sets as examples. As for me, there are 30 or so cards in the 1940 Play Ball set that have yet to be graded in a PSA 8. It has been about three years now, and still nothing. If one of these 30 get a PSA 8 example, your advice won't cut it for me. Cards in this set, raw or graded, are not readily available in decent condition. Thank goodness there's not much demand, so I probably wouldn't have to pay a premium anyway.
Bernie
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
You will if I'm aware if they are for sale.
Davalillo
Its only a guide - not a bible. But, what a guide it is!!! Without it, I'd have no way to know that I shouldn't pay $25 for a 68 Grant Jackson PSA 9 and a 69 Rich Nye PSA 9, but that $50 is a great price for a 1972 PSA 8 Fred Kendall! Some cards are incredibly easy and others very, very hard. While not relying on it for absolute perfection, I have a much better idea on what prices make sense for me to pay, or not pay.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
bruce
Website: http://www.brucemo.com
Email: brucemo@seanet.com
Bernie, I will qualify what I said.
The quote that you extracted from my post was only partially there. Look at the whole statement if you would...
"Too much $ for you? DON'T PAY IT!"........
If a collector thinks he is being held hostage by a dealer, simply go on to the next deal.
I can appreiciate that some sets, especially older sets, are tough to build. You have been working VERY hard on your Playball set and are proud of your efforts...3 years, I think you said. But that's not to say that a card won't pop up maybe tomorrow, or the next day. My point is that card manufacturers don't stop printing at just a few cards. They print 1000's. Where they show up is anybody guess. The early cards were almost always associated with some type of sale item. I find it hard to believe that,..say...a candy company like Craker Jacks, would have their ad agency say..."Well we only need about 100 or so of those new fangled baseball cards to put in our product". So it's just a matter of time before another example shows up. (might seem like an eternity!) I applaude your effort.
Larry.
email....emards4457@msn.com
CHEERS!!
I find the Pop Report highly useful. I primarily collect pre-war cards. Many of these cards have pops in the single digits. For example, some only have one or two specimens in PSA 8, with none higher. When entering into negotiations with a seller or bidding at an auction regarding one of these cards, the pop report (along with SMR) allows me to negotiate and spend money from a point of power, as we all know, "knowledge is power". A good example is a card I purchased in the recent Mastro auction. It was billed as "1 of 1". I checked the pop report to confirm this and then concluded in my mind what I was willing to pay for it. If there was no pop report, I would never have paid up for the card. Based on the card's rarity, I doubt many will surface anytime soon.
While it's far from perfect, the pop report is a very helpful tool for both collectors and dealers. While crack outs and "resubmits" do skew the numbers in certain cases, it's certainly better than shooting in the dark.
All I know that in any endeavor, knowledge is power. It has helped to keep me in the hobby and buy with confidence.
Regards,
Brian Seigel
I use it.
~jeff
Always looking for 1957 Topps BB in PSA 9!
Yes -- as a buyer, it sometimes means that you will have to pay a lot of money for a card. But this works both ways. You should be able to realize a premium as a seller. For what it is worth -- you can also (try!!) to find these cards in high grade raw and make a killing if you are able to score the PSA 8 grade.
The population report gives the average collector information -- information on which to more knowledgably assess an issue's rarity and ultimately its worth. As well as balance in the future risks of population explosions, etc. The Population report is one of the best tools available for the average joe collector -- and it allows you the freedom to collect as you best see fit.
MS
Larry,
Please don't take it as a slam. I just wanted to point out that not all sets are created equal. There may be a great "find" in the future, but who knows. It just gets frustrating to see no movement in the POP report month after month.
Sorry if you took my comments the wrong way.
Bernie
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
1) The pop report is the most valuable tool we get from PSA . While it is true that it may not be perfectly accurate, it is very close. Crackouts don't matter a whole lot because no one( or very close to no one) cracks out a low pop high grade card. So while PSA 7's may be off, and some higher pop PSA 8's, you won't see many 9's cracked out except in newer material, and never a 10.
2) What determines the value of any collectible is the scarcity and the demand. Why is a 52 Bowman common PSA 8 worth more than a 69 Topps PSA 8? It is the scarcity of the high grade card.(whether graded or not) Others have spoken about the difference between a rare card and a card that just hasn't had many graded, so I won't repeat that except to say that there won't be a lot more high grade 52's to be found, but the number of high grade 69's, while debatable, is certainly a reasonably large number.
3) Dealers don't cheat you when they ask more for low pop cards any more than when they ask you for more money for 52's than 72's. The reason they ask more is because people will pay more. That then is "the market price". If a dealer for instance priced all of his commons at the same 1.5X SMR, then collectors would grab all of the low pop cards, and he would be left with high pop cards that will never sell for that. Rob, if you are willing to sell your low pop cards for the same as your high pop, please call me. Remember your economics 101. As supply decreases, price increases. In fact, for commons, the most important determinate of market price is the pop report. On my site, my expensive low pop commons sell much faster than my low priced high pop commons.
4)One of the more gratifying things in life is finding a low pop card priced low because the dealer doesn't use the pop report. It is real easy to buy this card cheap and sell it for more. Joe Orlando's recent article on the significance of the pop report is a nice primer for those who are just beginning to collect graded cards, or just starting to use the pop report.
5) An advanced technique that I use is to not only look at the pop report now, but to also look at the change in pop for a card over the last X period of time. Maybe 6 months to one year. If a card is low to moderate pop and hardly changing relative to others, that means it is a truly hard to find card. This way you can help to distinguish cards that are moderate pop because they are easy to get, but low demand and not worth sending in, vs those that are moderate pop because they are high dollar cards, but there really aren't too many of them around.
So don't complain about the pop report. Learn how to use it and benefit from it.
<< <i>The Set registry has made some low pop vintage commons extremely hard to find. . >>
Another way to say that is that the pop report has "identified" some hard to find vintage commons. It didn't make them any harder to find.
<WRONG ANSWER grammar man. Before the set registry fewer individual collectors were competing for virtually the same number of cards. Now, because of the increased demand, they disappear from the market faster. Some of this increased demand has resulted in collectors grading cards that they would not have previously graded, but the supply, especially in vintage cards from the 50s, is not keeping up with the increased demand. Thus, HARDER TO FIND.>
You begin with WRONG ANSWER but everything you posted supports his argument. All the pop report does is provide some information that may (or may not in many cases) identify which cards are tougher to find.
The supply of vintage cards is what it is...there probably won't be any major finds. BTW - I have never seen a card disappear from the market. The cards may rarely appear for sale...
The set registry (on the other hand) makes it easy to find who has the cards...easy to obtain may be another story.
We are all right and wrong. I wrote pop report. He wrote set registry. The set registry has increased demand. I was thinking he said pop report because this is what we were talking about, but he didn't.
So I stand corrected on the set registry affecting supply. However I stand by my statement that the pop report has identified and not caused hard to find cards.
Doug