What Is A 1948(s) Quarter in NGC-MS68*Worth?

wondercoin

By now, most Wash Quarter enthusiasts have heard about the pop 1/0 for both services 1948(s) Wash Quarter in NGC-MS68* that recently fetched $19,250 on Teletrade. NGC has done a great job with its Registry of late and its marketing has obviously helped its product pricing as well. I also heard that a 1947(s) quarter in NGC-MS68* also was available last week for a figure not that far off from what the 1948(s) quarter sold for (by the way, anyone interested in viewing the nicest slabbed 1947(s) Wash quarter I have ever seen can check out the PCGS-MS68 on my site in the Museum of Coins).

In a Commentary in Coin World last week, a leading Wash Quarter dealer suggested (at least the way I read the Commentary) that prices could even go higher on these finest known quarters as more serious Registry collectors enter the Silver MS Wash Quarter Registry competition in the years ahead. On the other hand, in the most recent Coin World "Trends of US Coins" article entitled "Boggling The Mind", the Coin World writer essentially suggests the $19,250 price made little sense stating "Common sense tells us that a second coin will lower the price, but we may not be dealing with common sense here".

My serious question to the Forum Members is what do you think a reasonable price for a pop 1/0 for both services 1948(s) Wash Quarter in NGC-MS68* should be todays market? Incidently, one of the nicest 1948(s) Wash Quarters in PCGS-MS67 I have ever seen did command around $3500 at auction earlier this year (and that was before many prices on super grade Wash Quarters exploded in recent auctions). Are very high end PCGS-MS67 Wash Quarters simply being priced too cheap when the jump to NGC-MS68* can mean prices like this $19,250? Or, are NGC-MS67 prices simply being priced too cheap when an NGC-MS67* 1948(s) quarter might command say as little as $500 or so and the jump is to $19,250 for the next grade up? Or? What do you think? Wondercoin

braddick

I think it's worth what it is valued now- right around that $19,000.00 mark. The STAR probably means this one should/could cross into PCGS if that was the desire of the owner.
If you don't think it would cross then I would value it over it's PCGS MS67 counterpart, but no where near it's full NGC MS68PQ pricetag now.
Maybe $7,000.00 then?

Placid

I think the premium that some people are currently willing to pay for a one grade difference is pretty crazy.
If you send the coin in for regrade it might very well come back a lower grade.

If I want a coin and the price is $200 in ms65 and $2,000 in ms66 I will get the 65 and be happy.

andy007

$3500 tops and it would have to be a monster(didn't look like it in the picture either IMO)

edited to add: I really have no clue, but even if I had the money to splurge on such a coin, this one or any Washington quarter at nearly 20 k just doesn't look like a good buy to me, and I am a big fan of silver Washingtons.

gmarguli

If I want a coin and the price is $200 in ms65 and $2,000 in ms66 I will get the 65 and be happy.

Yep. And with a little searching you can probably find a nice high end MS65 for $300. Too many people get caught up with the number on the slab and not the coin in it. You can frequently find better looking MS65s than some of the slabbed MS66s. It just takes patience, but it sure helps the wallet. Of course, you have to check the ego, since all you have is an MS65 and not an MS66.

RooseyFan

To throw another log on this fire, can anyone guess what this 49-D in NGC MS68 is going to fetch this weekend on Teletrade?

Just interested.

Butch

NGC MS-68 49-D Quarter

roadrunner

In 3 years, when there are several more MS68's of this date, and a hundred or more MS67's, will there be enough monster grade set collectors to need all those coins?

roadrunner

braddick

It's a POP ONE coin after 15+ years of grading and now, in the next three years, a bunch more will be made?

dbldie55

<< <i>It's a POP ONE coin after 15+ years of grading and now, in the next three years, a bunch more will be made? >>



This is the all too often used flawed statement. No one cared about these coins until recently, hence low pops on many. Does this mean there will be many more? (who knows) but it is a very poor statement.

gmarguli

What a BS description on that coin RooseyFan posted the link to.

Amazing white surfaces with splashed of gold near the rims, a very light blue hue on the rev, well struck, nice luster, attractive mint set appeal, one of the nicest quarters available.



This coin has amazing WHITE surfaces?

tradedollarnut

What's it worth? Whatever someone is willing to pay for it. To many, it's worth one week's pay.

Of course, that amount varies quite a bit household to household, which accounts for many of today's astonishing prices. But if you break it down to the base equation, hours of net earnings, I think you'll find that there are many collectors willing to make the same sacrifice for that (or any other pop 1) coin.

Placid

The p.o.s. ones I got au58 on have better feathers on the eagle

TomB

Getting back to Mitch's questions leads me to an answer that is neither fish nor fowl. I think the price paid by the buyer of the NGC MS68* '48-S Washington was absolutely insane for me, however, that does not mean the price was insane for the buyer.

I have been a longtime specialist in two niche markets in numismatics; silver mint state Washington quarters and monster or attractively toned coins. This particular coin is viewed by many to be the nexus of these two pursuits, but, in my view, it is more an example of third-party certification rarity than anything else. I don't write that last statement as one who has never seen the coin in question, on the contrary, I held that coin in hand for quite a while at the Baltimore show and examined it closely. While the surfaces may have been of MS68 quality, and I don't think they were up to my definition of MS68 quality, I did not think the toning was worthy of the astronomical premium. Yes, you read that correctly; I did not think the toning was worthy of the premium it realized.

As to what this coin is worth, well, it was worth nearly $20k to the buyer and that is what matters in this particular transaction. If the coin were offered to me raw in a private treaty arrangement I would have offered, at the very most, not even 10% of the selling price. That is just me and how I view my money vis a vis this coin.

I agree with the idea that there are many, many slightly lower graded Washington quarters with exceptional eye appeal that sell for far less than they are worth if you accept that the NGC MS68* '48-S is the logical standard-bearer of value. This is something that I do not accept. I will agree completely, however, with the idea that many MS66 coins are worth more than same date/mint/denomination MS67 coins and so on up the grading continuum. For me, it is all about eye appeal and finding those coins that you want to own based solely upon their look and not upon perceive conditional rarity.

Keeping these caveats in mind one can easily understand why I have never quite kept beat with the drums of the market and have never embraced the Registry Race. I do not begrudge anyone who engages in this pursuit and think that the pursuit is valid and worthy if it brings satisfaction and pleasure to the participants. It's just not for me.

Here is an example of my love of look without regard to profit; several years ago I had the good fortune to buy a number of raw, high grade, monster toned Washington quarters before the State Quarter program started. I then had the coins slabbed and many became PCGS MS67 quarters when the populations of these quarters were 3-9 pieces each. I have since turned down offers in excess of $2k each for certain of these coins even though the profit realized would be obscene. I do this because I do not need the money and because I buy the look and, in the case of these coins, I would easily obtain another in a similar grade but would not be able to replace the look.

As a conclusion, superb coins of any series, in any grade are underpriced while the chaff, even if very highly graded by third-party certification, is overpriced.

Tonelover

I do not believe that PCGS 67's are priced too cheap, this sale was likely an anomaly and has no bearing on the value of PQ PCGS 67's. The purchaser of said coin also just spent $575 for an ultra common 47-P in NGC MS-67 leading me to believe that part of the story has to do with the buyer having more money than sense. He paid nearly 6 times what such a date normally trades for, apply that to his 68 and, well, you get the picture. More power to him though.

Even though there was an underbidding dealer at 12K, my guess is that if he took possession of the coin and determined that it couldn't be crossed it would be on it's way back to Teletrade without delay. Then I think the coin would sell for 30-50% less than what it did the first time which is still too much in my opinion considering more common dates are sure to be made.

Incidentally, I decided to take advantage of this current buzz and liquidate some of my NGC 67's, many of which are of dubious quality, not to mention common as dirt. So far they're off to a good start. Do I hear $575 for my 47-P? Ok, $400?

Not really the answer you were looking for, but my feelings nonetheless.

braddick

<< <i>

<< <i>It's a POP ONE coin after 15+ years of grading and now, in the next three years, a bunch more will be made? >>

This is the all too often used flawed statement. No one cared about these coins until recently, hence low pops on many. Does this mean there will be many more? (who knows) but it is a very poor statement. >>



These Washington quarters have been searched for and graded since day one.
What do you think the Services have been doing for the last fifteen years? Not ALL the coins graded are 1881-S Morgans...

I need to pick and choose my battles. I don't even collect these and could care less what they sell for or even what they look like.
I just dislike it when a Collector steps up to own a coin (and remember there has to be at least one underbidder that walked away at just under the final bid) and then is ridiculed for his purchase.
This same Collector may think it's nuts to pay $1,000,000.00+++ for a V-Nickel (and it's NOT even a top grade! ::Shesh::!) Would he be right?

wondercoin

"Not really the answer you were looking for, but my feelings nonetheless"

Tonelover: Don't be so sure

Great analysis TomB, Braddick, etc.

As was pointed out, there was quite a bit of addtional bidding between a dealer's $12k bid and the final hammer of $19,250 - at least 1, if not, 2 additional collectors fighting for the 1948(s).

And, I do believe, to some extent, it does boil down to TDN's point that this coin might be worth "a weeks pay" to may collectors. If you are making $50,000 per year, the coin may be worth a $1k bid. If you are making $1,000,000 per year, then $20k may be a comfortable bid as well. I can see that. Along those lines, if (2) collectors earning $5M/year join in the Registry and like collecting Wash quarters - what might that mean!

Wondercoin

dbldie55

Pat, the number graded of this date (NGC 1949-D) has doubled in less than 5 years (look it up). I have a hard time believing that this series was popular until recent times. (the big dealers in these say that they were not, why would you disagree)

Now as for the grade portion, the number of 67's made in that time was not that many (91 to 108, 17), while the number of 66's increased by 140 (from 90 to 230). The 68 was made in this time frame.

Why does everyone bring up the Liberty Nickel? (they have increased in value for what ever that means). I don't care how much someone pays for a Washington Quarter, and never even said anything about their prices. I just hate people using bogus statements.

Now for the PCGS breakdown (1994, 1998, 2002) Total graded for date: 112, 130, 701 (sure doesn't look like it was popular until more recently)

Now for the 66 numbers 29,30,259 and 67 0,1,14 (there are no PCGS MS68's)

Feel free to talk about the possibility of more high grades, but it is fairly clear not many cared for the series until recent time. Another point about that: One registry set owner claims to have made over half the high grade coins for a few dates in his series (not this one). If one person can make this many of the top pops, I would say more are out there, but no one really cares about them. The Washington series has hardly matured yet in the slabbed world.

Android

<< <i>It's a POP ONE coin after 15+ years of grading and now, in the next three years, a bunch more will be made? >>



Yes, it's a POP ONE coin, but I wouldn't be willing to bet that there aren't any more out of the 15,960,000 that were minted. Now considering that there were only 6,000 mint sets sold (which is where this coin came from IMO) then the odds are better. I however still wouldn't want to bet $20,000 on the possibility of this being a lone example of a remarkable coin in this date and beauty.

It's kind of like a high stakes blackjack game. I am showing a 16, the dealer is showing a face card. I've got $20,000 on this hand. Do I hit? Or do I stay?

Andy

gmarguli

(and remember there has to be at least one underbidder that walked away at just under the final bid)

and

As was pointed out, there was quite a bit of addtional bidding between a dealer's $12k bid and the final hammer of $19,250 - at least 1, if not, 2 additional collectors fighting for the 1948(s).

Not necessarily. This is TeleTrash we are talking about. It is possible the owner of the coin wanted to see want the value of the coin was and put an obscene reserve on it and someone was insane enough to pay the premium. Or it is possible he just kept bidding it up.

tradedollarnut

Well, I have to say that I also think it's irrelevant that the grading services have been grading for 15 years. It's more relevant to say that they've been grading under current standards for a few years now. And all the coins graded under previous standards are practically the same as a raw coin - a super nice old holder 66 or 67 could easily become a 68.

wondercoin

"but it is fairly clear not many cared for the series until recent time."

Dbldie55: With all due respect, you are confusing many issues here by pulling up old pops numbers and drawing the wildly erroneous conclusions you have drawn. Here's why:

1. For the first 11 years at PCGS (especially with $25-$30/coin minimum grading fees), collectors only submitted THE VERY BEST WASH QUARTERS THEY HAD. Borderline MS66 common date coins etc. were simply not submitted. In the last 4 years or so with the advent of bulk grading for 20th century coins, dealers were able to submit massive quantities of quarters shooting for that "needle in a haystack" "pop top" coin.

2. Since great coins were submitted to the grading services for years, IMHO, Braddick is right that it is compelling that 15 years have passed with few slabbed MS68 specimens. The additional conclusion to be drawn here is that lower grade coins were not submitted for years when fees did not justify their submission. Hence, coins like common date pieces throughout the series are even more common in lower grades than the pop report suggests. Your conclusion that lower submissions in the past equated to relatively equal levels of quality having been submitted then compared to now (higher submission levels) is in error I believe.

3. Many people "cared for" the Wash quarter series in the 1990's - to suggest otherwise is simply wrong. Of course, more collectors today collect Wash Quarters than 5 years ago. Indeed, many more collectors collect Lib nickels today than 5 years ago - but to say not many people cared for Lib nickels five years ago would have inflamed you if it was said on these boards about the series you have always enjoyed. Don't deny it

4. One must understand the series they collect. Grabbing a pop report and drawing wild conclusions from the numbers is "risky business" IMHO. Consider this. PCGS has still yet to grade a 1961(d) quarter in PCGS-MS67. Now, the submissions levels may be relatively low on that date because there are simply no coins to submit that have a shot at MS67. Now, say PCGS offered me a bulk deal to submit 1961(d) quarters by the 1000 count for $3/coin (fat chance, but say they did). Now, say I submitted 1000 coins and they slabbed MS64 and MS65 (with an occasional MS66) and the submission count went up 1000 coins next week. Does this prove that many more folks love the Wash quarter series? Does this prove that the low submissions in the past suggest many MS67 coins will be graded in the years ahead once collectors start submitting more Wash quarters? Or, does it show that collectors in the 1990's were more careful with the submissions they submitted, but with the bulk grading possibility, dealers can throw "the kitchen sink" at the grading company and often piles of crap coins which do little but increase submission results for misguided collectors to conclude the Wash quarter series was not liked in prior years and pops are low because no one submitted coins back then? Wondercoin

cladking

It would seem likely that a much higher percentage of the high grade silver Washingtons
have been graded than clad Washingtons. These were more likely to be in strong hands
when they got popular. More importantly they were likely to be concentrated in the hands
of knowledgable collectors. They are aware of the value of high grade coins and they know
they must be professionally graded to bring top price.

There are several hundred pretty serious collectors for the silver Washingtons. There are
a few dozen for the clad. There are tens of millions of people collecting quarters from change.
The demand for the silvers could easily increase 100 fold. Perhaps part of the price for this
coin is simple speculation.

Android

<< <i> Now, the submissions levels may be relatively low on that date because there are simply no coins to submit that have a shot at MS67. >>



What are the odds that there are no MS67 1961 D Washingtons out of 84,000,000 minted?

Andy

braddick

How good it must feel to be so much more enlightened than the buyer of that $20,000.00 Washington.
He should join us here and learn about true Numismatics and save a bundle of cash while doing so!

This Forum has criticized Moderns, toned coins (pricing), and Pop One coins.
What's left?


Oh-

wondercoin

Andy: Of course, there will be PCGS-MS67 1961(d) quarters found - eventually. But, if the (5) top sets are missing that coin whenever the coin is finally slabbed - what are the chances it will sell for less than $2500 at auction? Less than $5,000? Less than $7500? Less than $10,000?

You do agree I could submit a mint sewn bag of 1961(d) quarters (4,000 coins) and still not grade one. Submission count plays far less of an important role when you are discussing spectacularly rare coins (like true grade MS68 coins) - and a 1961(d) quarter in "true" MS67+ grade is a spectacularly rare coin as far as i am concerned.

Wondercoin

dbldie55

Mitch, I really don't give a sh*t what people think of Liberty Nickels. If you can find one thread where I have claimed this is a popular series, or that anyone should collect them, please show me. I collect them for my reasons, and have never cared what anyone thinks. (What did I think of them 5 years ago?)

Also, I made no comparisons of quality (if anything, I defended it in the NGC case), just that this series has not been popular. I am only repeating what the leading specialists say. To say otherwise is defending "your" series and that is about it. Wasn't it you that said PCGS laughed at you when you wanted to start submitting these types of coins? I wouldn't know if they were rare in high grade, I don't care if they are rare. They are all worth the same to me, about 75 cents each right now(silver ones).

BTW please define "many", as in "Many" people cared for the series in the 90's.

I am a numbers person, so that is where I draw conclusions.

I love the example of the 1961-D. Use one coin to make a conclusion about an entire series. I will use the entire series (from the pop reports) to make my conclusions.

Total graded 1994, 1998, 2001, 2002 Now, obviously there are more dates to be graded as time goes on and the state quarters have been huge but.......

17,666 - 22,117 - 56,127 - 121,660

Perhaps this very defined trend is misleading.

Now, you claim that high submission costs are the reason. No reason to submit a coin below a 67. Why? (is 10 bucks that big of deal?) Maybe the reason is the series was not very popular so it was not worthwhile financially to submit them? No one wanted to buy them.

Now who is defending who's series?

wondercoin

dbldie55: I love it when you get upset, the juices start to flow and you start writing freely - it produces your best stuff!

By the way, PCGS "laughed at me" when I started bulk grading silver Roosies. You'll recall, I also thought they felt sorry for me when I started in with Memorial Cents. Actually, they didn't laugh that much about the Wash quarters - remember David Hall was one of the first mentioned in the Registry (1998 as I recall) as having assembled a top Wash quarter set Wondercoin

Placid

I looked at the total graded of 1961-d's at pcgs and ngc.
Ngc has graded a total of under 300 and 5 of those graded ms67.
Pcgs has graded over 400 and zero 67's.

Total graded both services about 700.
Number minted 80 some million.

Who's hiding them all?

wondercoin

"Pcgs has graded over 400 and zero 67's."

Placid: Again, would it make you feel any better about the rarity of that 1961(d) if I submitted (4000) coins and ran the pop to 4,400. How about (3) bags of 1961(d) and ran the pop to 12,400? Zero MS67 would still be zero MS67 - right? Wondercoin

dbldie55

Wondercoin, I have the 1999 book, and if I recall, you have the top silver roosy set in it.

When you start the thread on the 1888 PCGS MS66 Nickel I will try and keep with the thread (but don't count on me defending the price ) but what a coin is worth is really what someone is willing to pay for it. When you are talking a pop 1 coin, you cannot have a guide. If two want it bad enough, the price can get out of hand (the 53-S Franklin rings bells). If it stays pop 1, and the current owner has no desire to sell it, the value will probably go only one way. If it doesn't stay pop 1, then the value will depend on the demand (growth of the high end series collectors). If the owner wants out too soon then the result of the Franklin may occur.

As for the coins on your site(no judgements, just general comments), I have tried many times to get coins to come out right in scans, photo's etc. They never look as good as they do in person. It is also really hard to get a high end coin to look great. If you make them too big, they look worse than they really are. I think this is the reason a well known Ebay seller never uses images on his lots.

Placid

Not really because 4000 is a drop in the bucket compared to the number minted.
40 million and I would feel better.
1 in 70 at ngc made 67.
0 in 400 at pcgs.

Maybe you should dump a couple thousand at ngc to even things up.

The average person might look at one and realize its silver content and put it away.
The average person would not think it's a coin of value because they are not aware of it's low pcgs pop number.

The average person who looks at a liberty nickel probably thinks it's rare even if it's vf and might investigate further.

Android

<< <i>You do agree I could submit a mint sewn bag of 1961(d) quarters (4,000 coins) and still not grade one. >>



You could probably grade 4,000 bags of 4,000 (which still is less than 20% of the total mintage) and still not grade one MS67+. But in bag 4,001 you find 10 of them. Or 100 of them. This is just as likely a scenario as not finding one in the initial 4,000 bags. The risk to reward ratio for such a venture is not agreeable to me.

Andy

oreville

To me, a 1948-S MS-67 quarter is worth anywhere between $300 to $2,000. An MS-68 would be worth anywhere between $1.000 to $5,000 depending on the PQ aspect of the coin. But that is strictly my personalized gut feel of what I think they are worth. Keep in mind that I am NOT a motivated buyer of an MS-68 1948-S quarter. If I was such a motivated buyer and money was not a big concern for me then I can see $10K or more for an MS-68 quarter. But to go to $20K right away for an MS-68 when the previous high was $3,500 for a PCGS MS-67 takes balls.

Heck, I just plunked down $5,000 for a single BU roll of quarters. Even I was thinking "balls" when I made the move to buy it at that price.

If anyone wants to see what roll I was crazy enough to buy just send a response right here.

stman

Hey I'll bite, I would love to see it.

oreville

Now I have not yet seen the roll in person .........but the coins do look original from the scans......

1936-S Unc. 25c roll....

wondercoin

Oreville: Interesting buy. I wish you the best on that purchase. Mintmarked quarters from the 1930's are one of my favorite coins these days Wondercoin.

merz2

Mitch
I have always believed a pop 1 coin is a five figure coin($10,000).IMHO

oreville

wondercoin: I was trying to "put" together a roll of nice BU 1936-S quarters and got up to 18 and it has taken me 22 years to do it!!! Too much work!! Now I will just make the 18 coins into a 1/2 roll and call it quits!!

But some of the 18 coins are in slabs waiting to be cracked out so they can come back home to Mama and join their brothers and sisters in the pea pod!!!

wondercoin

"I was trying to "put" together a roll of nice BU 1936-S quarters and got up to 18 and it has taken me 22 years to do it!!! "

This is what many non-specialists of Wash quarters simply have a problem recognizing. In many cases, submission levels and pops are low simply because there are virtually no nice coins to even submit.

It was suggested I specially selected 1961(d) (earlier in this thread) as the exception to the rule. Heck no - just in the 1950's alone it is near impossible to locate a "true" PCGS-MS67 1951(d), 1952(d), 1953(d), 1954(d), 1955(d), 1956(d), 1959(p), 1959(d)!! I've spent the past 5 years trying and have graded just couple coins for all the dates mentioned combined (like one coin per year for the 8 dates - that is one coin, not one of each date)!! Wondercoin

oreville

wondercoin: Indeed the D mints of the 1954, 1955 and 1956 years are crummy and do not come real nice. I have not really investigated the earlier dates of the 1950's from Denver but I do not recall really nice rolls either. The opposite is the case in the 1940's, as I recall. I do have a few D mint bank wrapped rolls from the early and mid 1950's but refuse to open them up.