Prices vs. Rarity
KlectorKid
Posts: 3,723
I know some rare coins cost less then other less rare coins, and i know that it depends on what series because some series are more popular. For example a 1912-S V-Nickel with 238,000 minted compared to a 1909-S VDB with 484,000 minted, in G-4 condition the S VDB is 325 dollars more than the V-Nickel. But with coins like say the Washington Quarters, same date 1932, one D and one S mintage for D is 436,800 and the S has 408,000. In MS63 The D minted 1 is $900 more than the S minted. Why is this? Condition rarity? did people decide to melt only D mint 1932 quarters?
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As you already know, mintage is one factor to consider, as are supply and demand. Another highly important consideration is the number of survivors from the original mintages.
While the mintage of the 1932-D quarter was roughly 7% higher than that for the 1932-S, the numbers of mint state survivors show a different story, at least based on population figures. NGC and PCGS combined, have certified 1383 1932-D's in all grades of mint state, while they have graded 2136 1932's. In MS63 condition, the 1932-S's outnumber the 1932-D's by 719 to 485. It appears that more mint state 1932-S's than 1932-D's were saved over the years and thus the 1932-D's are scarcer and in this case, more valuable.
survivorship goes right to actual rarity...mintage number can,and often does,speak clearly to a coin's rarity or scarcity within the series considering all grades,circulated and uncirculated,but the all-important market price is more driven by perception of survivorship of a coin and that perception of survivorship is very much tied to the grade...
Looking at two key Lincoln cents:
'09SVD has a valuation of $5250 in MS65 RD...'14-D has a valuation of $12500 in MS65 RD...
'14-D has over twice the valuation in MS65 RD,despite having over twice the original mintage of '09SVDB,because it is perceived to be (actually is) a much rarer coin in the condition of MS65 RD than '09SVDB...'14-D in MS65 RD did not survive in the numbers that 'O9SVDB in MS65 RD did...
the population reports can shed some light on survivorship but,in my opinion,the best sense of survivorship of coin and its real rarity/scarcity is obtained by actually looking for the coins that have captivated the collector/investors interest...getting a handle on a coin's availability in the marketplace,in other words,will also help the collector/investor get an accurate sense of survivorship...
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
There isn't much I can add to what the others have said.They are quite right,in that mintage fiqures don't tell the whole story.You must also look at true suvivor #'s as well.You will see this on many of the Key dates and semi key dates.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
their percieved scarcity, hence 32-S quarters were saved in much higher numbers
than the 32-D. Rarity has far less to do with price than does demand. Take the
09-S vdb for example; the coin had a low mintage but was very heavily saved, to-
day the coin has a surprisingly high value because it is in far more demand than
many coins of the era. In comparison a 1972-D cent is far scarcer in gem condition.
Until recently if you could find the 72-D it would cost less than $1. Even now it is
no doubt possible to get this coin for a very small outlay in comparison to the 09-S.
It doesn't matter if there are only a dozen of a coin, if only ten people want it, it can
not obtain much value. Once all ten collectors have it then a price drop is to be ex-
pected. In contrast a coin can be quite common and command a high price because
there are not enough for all the collectors who want one.
You are also quite right.Look at the 1914S Lincoln in MS grades.It was a Key date for a long time.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns