OK, Stupid question Time: Robinson? Overton? Condition Census?

jmp81

How are these rarities established? Is it just the total known number or is it the number in varying conditions? Also who is the overton of early gold? Or is it overton?

Thanks.

DaveG

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, but I'll give it a try:

There really isn't an Overton of early gold (depending on what you mean by early gold), because Overton really focused on die pairs and as far as I know, no one has done this for US gold. Certainly not for post-1834 gold, anyway. I'm not that familiar with pre-1834 US gold (what collectors call "old tenor" gold), but I know there's at least one book out there that deals with old tenor eagles, although I've never looked at it.

As far as "condition census" goes, that usually just a dealer's guess (hopefully a well-educated guess, and using the PCGS/NGC populations) as to what the nicest coins in a series are.

EVillageProwler

How are these rarities established? Is it just the total known number or is it the number in varying conditions? Also who is the overton of early gold? Or is it overton?

Rarities are based on estimates, partially statistical and partially on experience. Basically, you take an estimate of the original mintage and apply a reasonable survival rate. Then, you correlate that with actual experience. There is an excellent example of this for 1797-dated dollars. The mintage records suggest that they'd be extreme rarities by now, yet their survival -- based on actual experience -- is much greater.

Condition census listings are derived on actual, specific examples, and is usually the top six specimens known.

For early gold, there is not a single person, unless you count Dave Akers. Miller wrote a book on half eagles (or quarter eagles), but I've been told that it's not that useful. Taraszka wrote the book on eagles, and it's pretty good. David Lange recommended that I get the Harry Bass sylloge by QDB. That, according to DWL, is a must-have book for my early gold interests!

Overton, btw, is only known for early and capped bust half dollars. (When Overton was doing his research, do you know who was the ``Overton'' of his day?)

Hope this helps...

EVP

Conder101

Breen had several monographs on die varieties of early gold but they are way outdated, John McClusk(sp) had a very nice series of articles several years back on the 1834 - 38 Quarter(?) eagles (Might have been the half eagles) in the John Reich Society journals.

The standard reference for half dollar varieties while Overton was doing his research was Beistle.

The rariety scales for some series are also partially determined, at lest for the higher levels (R-5 and up), by collection censuses and relative appearance rates.

Sometimes condition censuses go down to ten or more coins, especially for the rarer varieties, and at least in the early copper field the coins in the condition censuses are pretty well known.

EVillageProwler

The standard reference for half dollar varieties while Overton was doing his research was Beistle.

Excellent!

A slab researcher who also knows his coins... Hmmm...................................



EVP

jmp81

Thanks, while looking at some auction catalogues I kept seeing condition census and references to CQR and Overton. You've given me what I needed to know to understand condition census. So if a coin is in the lower end of the condition census then it may no longer be a condition census coin if better examples are discovered? I noticed that NGC says 5 to 6 examples while PCGS says 5, 6, or 10 depending on the surveyor. Good information, thanks again.

EVillageProwler

I noticed that NGC says 5 to 6 examples while PCGS says 5, 6, or 10 depending on the surveyor.

???

Neither NGC nor PCGS publishes a census of finest early gold specimens. Specialists and researchers do that. Organizations like the EAC and the JRCS will also do that for its membership, but definitely NOT a 3rd-party grading company.

EVP

jmp81

I agree. I took "depending on surveyor " to mean someone other than them(NGC and PCGS).

dorkkarl

i've actually seen a couple of anacs slabs with "beistle" attributions. 1 showed up a couple months ago in a heritage auction (not for l.e. bust halves of course).

i though logan/mccloskey did a monograph or book on early gold die pairings w/ rarities. for those who don't know , those 2 are the primary authors of the early half-dimes & dimes books.

btw, i assume you weren't referring to mrs. robinson, were ya??? koo koo ka-choo, mrs. robinson jesus loves you more than you will know woh woh woh


K S

Conder101

The references to CQR refers to Copper Quotes by Robinson, a pricing guide for the die varieties of half cents and large cents published by Jack Robinson. Jack is very knowledgeable in the field of early copper. The rarity ratings listed in CQR are the result of feedback from several of the top collectors and dealers in early copper, not just his own rankings. The condition census information from both "official EAC Condition Censuskeepers" Bland and Noyes is included. Del Bland has been keeping records on the condition census by actual physical examinationand extensive note taking of every high grade or reported possible CC specimen for close to 40 years. Bill Noyes has been doing the same thing for over twenty five years plus taking detailed photographs of every important , high grade, and CC cent he can locate for over 25 years. Noyes has a photographic condition census of the top 15 coins of every variety with even further depth on the rarer or more important varieties. The Noyes photographis condition census is supposed to be coming out on DVD eventually. Like most projects in EAC they get promised for "next year" for several years before they actually come out, The Noyes DVDs (four of them) has been promised for about 7 years now. Currently the expected cost is in the neighborhood of $3,000. The longer it delays though the cheaper it will probably get as the cost of reproduction decreases.