What should I assume as the survival rate?

sadysta1

I've been working on a database for seated halves. What should be my assumptions for survival rates for both mint and proof strikes? for convience you can break it into groups
(1839-53) due to 1853 melt
(1853 arr till 1873) melting due to weight standart change [you can break it this timeline into two parts pre and after the civil war (1861-64) because of hoarding and export]
1873-78 heavy mintage, common dates good melting opportunity
1873-91 coins for collectors assume good survival rate

for proofs there is no need to be so specific just a general guesstimate.

roadrunner

Sadysta1,

The Wiley-Bugert book should provide estimates of pieces remaining. You can then backtrack to the orig mintages to determine survival rates. Hoards like the Guatemalan one containing thousands of early "S" mint halves would skew results somewhat. So would the various meltings as you have already mentioned. Mintages are not necessarily written in stone either.

Typical survival rates for earlier dates might be as low as 0.1% and as high as 0.2 to 0.3%. It would be hard to come up with any consistent thumbrules. For the heavily saved 1879-90 period the number might be from 1-10% of the total mintage saved. The 1879 is probably closer to the 10% figure.

roadrunner

DaveG

There was an article in the Gobrecht Journal a year or two ago that estimated survival rates for Seated Halves.

If you don't have it, I can dig it up.

sadysta1

DaveG
Please do so, I have a couple of them but they are the latest issues

KoinKollector

I believe the article was written by Dick Osburn? Lemme see if I can forward it to you.

DaveG

Yes, the article was by Dick Osburn and it was in the November 1999 issue.

If KK can't forward it, PM me your address and I'll mail it to you.