OK, I did the math...why bother

RobBobGolf

OK, I was toying with the idea of trying to put together a mid 70s football set. These sets exploded in the number of cards, most around the 500 mark. So I asked myself, self how much would you spend putting this set together? This is what I came up with.

500 cards graded only during specials 2500.00
Commons aquired @ 2.00 p/card 950.00
Star cards aquired @ 20.00 p/card 500.00

Total investment 3950.00

Could a 74/75/76 FB set ever be worth more than that? I am figuring this set being weighted around 8.5
Please avoid the reply about if you love the set it doesn't matter about the cost, serious replies would be appreciated.

RobBob

mikeschmidt

I think a 1974 or 1975 set would be worth that much money if it was entirely graded and had a grade weight of approximately 8.5, as you indicated.

Of course -- the key is to finding commons at the prices you quoted that would grade out half PSA 8 and half PSA 9. That must be a daunting task, to say the least.

Guffy

Could it be worth that? Possibly. But if future value is a factor, you'd be much safer going back into the 60's where sets were smaller and demand is higher. Face it, those mid 70's football sets are UGLY! Better still, go after one of the Kelloggs sets in 70 or 71.

mcastaldi

Can you imagine a 71T FB set with an average of 8.5? Talk about a challenge. . .

Mike

rbeaton

I say go for it, but I would try to get closer to all 9's. There are a ton of mid 70s FB out there, and I don't think the 8's would be worth much.

I would also make one adjustment to your math. There is most likely a superstar card (Fouts, Payton, etc.) from each year which would be a lot more than the $20 you suggested.

Robert

sixdart

To retain the set's (present/future) value you would have to assemble most of the stars in PSA 9 Mint grade. As we all know, there are varying levels of quality in a PSA 9 Mint card - centering is very important with these cards. I will often pass on PSA 9 Mint cards with borderline centering/tilting, and in return, I will pay multiples higher for 50/50 examples.

Completion of the set with commons in a PSA 8 NMMT grade would be fine. However, if not choosing PSA 9 Mint commons, the centering will be a big factor with any PSA 8 selection - again we are talking about value here. There are not many commons currently submitted for most '70s sets. The PSA 9 Mint commons that do appear (mostly on eBay) are usually 1 of 1s and 1 of 2s. Because of the low population report numbers, they sell for a premium. Pricing common cards in PSA 9 Mint is most difficult - do you pass on a listing because of price or wait for future submissions?

Look at the current population reports for the star/key cards within a set as indication of future submissions or submission potential. Also look at the number of overall submissions versus the actual grades given out - this will give you a accurate percentage of the set's overall grading standard. If the percentage of PSA 9 Mint is quite high - then a PSA rated set of 8 to 8.5 may be incorrect choice for that set or year.

A final decision in your choice may be the existing level of competition with fellow collectors. The 1972 Topps Football set is a great example. This can create bidding wars on low population cards.

With this criteria, I have been currently working on a 1948 Bowman Football set in the PSA 8 range.

Good luck!

dude

I've always maintained that you should collect what you enjoy. If you like that era of cards then that's fantastic!

I actually buy 70's football cards when I come across them. I'm always looking for Steelers in mint condition from that era or any other card that's mint from those years. In fact I bought some real nice '75s at the National from a dealer from Illinois. He charged me $0.50 for the commons and $3-5 for the stars. I got about two dozen graded. One common graded PSA 10 and I listed it on eBay twice and it didn't sell either time (first time at $99 and the second time at $49). I finally sold it for $40 to a someone who frequents this Board. The rest came back mostly PSA 9 and the rest PSA 8. I found that selling these commons and minor stars was real hit and miss. Some people hit the Buy It Nows on some PSA 9 commons for $45 and others never sold with a starting bid of $19 on the 9's and a $5 opening bid on the 8's. A PSA 9 '75 John Hannah didn't even sell for $49 and he's a HOF and the Pop was 3. My observation was that the people who were buying these were fans of a certain team or certain player. Nobody was a set builder. I decided to keep the ones that didn't sell. They were too nice to "give away". So based on this, I feel that it's a buyer's market for '70's football. I think you could build a nice set for even less than you estimate.

brucemo

Newer slabbed commons are only worth anything if people are set building. If you are the only one building the set, and you are the only one who is going to build the set, the stuff is essentially worthless.

So are there other crazies that you will sell to eventually, or are they going to be used to line the inside of your mausoleum?

If you are in this to make *money*, buy all of the best raw stuff now, and slab it when it becomes obvious that there are crazies building the set.

bruce

jaxxr

Bruce,

"Crazies" ??? Come on now, are all of us who collect graded or ungraded sets from say 1974 and later, really crazy ? If one judges his collection pursuits on monetary return, perhaps we are crazy. If one collects for the challange and/or fun of it, we may not be financially shrewd but possibly still borderline sane. What about all the people collecting the "rare" 50 state quarters ? I'll guess they will probably get no economic windfall, but they can't all be crazy.

I will add that my ex-wife as well as my current one, do think anyone who spends so much time collecting sportscards is in fact, crazy.

sixdart

Why is it crazy to build a PSA '70's football set?

Dudes's post was correct. To assemble a set of this nature (at this time) would be a labor of love and money. There would be little return at the present except for the '72 Topps set?

I also buy the centered HOF stars and RCs in PSA 9 if they are at SMR or less.

brucemo

He seemed a little more interested in long-term value than the typical person who tries stuff like this -- he said he wasn't interested in "do it for the fun of it" type replies. I think that this kind of thing and long-term value are kind of contrary notions.

Is this kind of thing crazy or not? There are 528 cards in 1975 Topps Football. 273 (more than half) of them are not yet graded in PSA-8. 145 have a population of 1. 49 have a population of 2. Only 61 have a population of more than 2.

It seems apparent that a market for these doesn't exist. It can't exist, because there aren't any. So if someone builds this set, they are going to be the first one to do it. It will probably take a long time and cost a lot of money. And then it's expected that this will be worth more than the money put into it?

I doubt it.

Note that if it's crazy, no problem. Crazy is fine. But it isn't objectively sane, is it? I think that in order to do something like this, you have to be ready to spend the money with little hope of getting it back.

bruce

theBobs

<< <i>But it isn't objectively sane, is it? >>

I'd say it isn't economically sane.

RobBobGolf

Many Thanks to all who responded. I greatly appreciate the input! The 72 set is certainly an exception, because of the scarcity of the 3rd series. I think if I put in the time and money to build a 73/74/75 set. The return is nill. The problem is, I sure want to build a set that is relativally easy to aquire cards. So I agree, you almost have to go for all 9's, have a high weighted set, and hope for the best. The question you have to ask yourself is, will a 73/74/75 Topps FB set graded almost all 9's, ever be worth 4K+? Speculation may be the demise of this plan. Still, I am considering this challenge. Thanks again all.

RobBob

brucemo

A couple of other ideas:

1) Do an older set that has fewer cards and is "worth" more per card, so the grading fee is less important.

2) Get as many high grade newer cards as you can, and slab them later if it makes sense to do it. You could get a zillion cards for what you'd spend doing one graded set. If it doesn't make sense to grade the cards ever, you still have the cards and can sell them for something around what you paid. If it suddenly makes sense to grade the cards, you grade them then and make a fortune.

bruce

SKINSFAN

I must say i agree100% with dan. he hit it on the head. i buy 70 psa 9,s and 10 sometimes but only redskin cards for my personal collection and only at what i feel is a price i can live with knowing that if i had to sell them there may be a loss involved,i know of at least 9 or 10 more guys who do the same either buying only teams or players but not building sets.and i am sure baseball as the same but i can speak only about football since thats where my interest lies that certain teams always have more collectors then others in football packers,cowboys,giants redskins seem to pull more interest them most. so i would say biulding a mid 70,s set would result in a net loss if you had to resell it in the near future. just my 2 cents worth but what do i know i still hope the skins make the playoffs lol

RobBobGolf

Thanks Skinsfan. See you at the game Sunday? I will be in parking lot around 11 am.


RobBob