Davilillo, I think it will sell and i will be the first one on the board to say im wrong if it doesnt.I agree with you that there is a lot of nice raw material out there but you cannot argue that 1971s are somewhat different then other issues.The population of 9s reflects this.You state you dont have time to run around and look for raw cards?Most of us dont.But if you did have the time ....you would realize that it is a little tougher than you think to submit 90 whatever % by yourself. This is a truely amazing set Steve is offering and I wish him luck.
This is a really interesting auction to me, because I think there are so few buyers. Potential buyers:
1) A dealer to break up - but as mentioned, the seller basically (intended) to price it above the break value, or at least above a level where a seller could make a decent return
2) Someone building a 71 Topps set in PSA 8, buying the set to upgrade - possible, but frankly someone building the set in PSA 8 (vs. 9) is probably not someone who's going to be able to drop $20K+ in one shot.
3) Someone building a run of sets in PSA 8, like Davillao - this seems like the best potential possible customer, especially because I think a lot of the major collectors working on set runs won't have much if any of a 71 Topps set graded, because '70s cards have only recently been graded.
Ultimately, whether such a set is sold via ebay or a major auction house, I think it's very telling if there are no collectors looking to buy the set complete at an aggressive price. Ultimately, all set builders are looking to complete sets - this market will be tough if the only thing that can be done with those sets, when completed, is to be broken up!
Why do I get the feeling, that some cards are worth money, while others are not?
My set is the #2 set on the 1971 set registry, with 726 PSA 8's and 5 PSA 9's, plus 19 PSA 7's.
If this set sells for the opening bid price, which I think is possible, my set is for sale!
Rob
Collecting 1971 Topps baseball in PSA 8 or better. 1966 Topps baseball in PSA 8 or better 1929 Kashin R316 in any grade 1966 Batmans -all varieties- PSA 8 or better
There are many amazing sets on this board but I do not consider a 1971 psa 8 set amazing--more time consuming than anything else. I do agree that 71s are modestly tougher in 8 than surrounding years but 55% grade in 8 or better. ...and there are a boatload of 8s yet to be graded. Solomon,
I think you are correct here.
1)There are few buyers for modern era cards in set form. 2)Many collectors of this vintage seem more interested in thge chase-I am not--I just want the cards 3)Collectors are not willing to pay over smr for something not that difficult 4)In most cases, sets of this vintage will be sold to dealers at smr or less
We have seen many sets up for sale lately. Many people state that the prices the sets are being sold at are great prices. Then the sets sell too low or not at all. How can we expect our sets to hold any value without bidders?
I would think the 1971 set is the hardest 70's Topps set to build in high grade because of the black borders. Yet I agree with Davalillo in everything he has said here. I would be surprised if there was a bidder on doc's set.
I have red man sets that are close to being complete. I've tracked the dollars spent on each of the sets. When I look individually at the prices it is no big deal. I would do it again. But when I look at the dollars "invested" in total, it is alot. I wonder, if I saw my set up on ebay around what I have in to it, would I bid?
There are a lot of excellent comments being made on both sides of the issue, and we have discussed this type of thing before.
My opinion is still the same as the last time we discussed it - the large graded Topps sets of this caliber (late vintage) that are all 8's or mostly 8's will not fetch a premium to SMR in the current hobby environment we're in. It will take another boom time in cards for someone to come in and swoop up sets like this at a premium. It will likely take new players who have plenty of cash to play with. $20,000, $30,000, will seem like nothing to them, and they will let it rip.
The smaller vintage sets from that era will do better now because it's much easier for today's breed of set collector to lay out a few thousand as opposed to $20,000-30,0000. We have seen three examples of this in the past year (ie 1963 Fleer almost all PSA 8, 1970 Kellogg's PSA 9, and 1964 Topps Giants all PSA 8).
We're just not in that kind of environment right now. We will be again one day, and that's when the larger sets will see serious action. There will probably be an exception or two along the way, and I certainly wish the seller luck. You just never know.
"You make your money on the set when you buy the cards."
So what if you sell your set at 90, 100,or 110% of SMR....if you bought in at 70% SMR then youre okay. Ideally I would like to keep my set(s) when complete but if I have to sell them at least I want to break even. The only way to do this is but patient with your purchases, look for quality raw, and trade with other collectors who are closer to completion (many times they will make you a crazy offer for a card they need).
If you build the set brick by brick (ie. ebay) and if you do not buy wisely...the most likely way to recoup your investment will be to "sell it like you bought it".....slab by slab online.
Gemmint is correct. I thought of this when I started collecting. From the 64 Topps Giants to team sets to the red man sets. I did not even take the economic side into account though. I just thought of having 500-800 slabs of one set in the house and then figure on upgrades meaning duplicates laying around was just too much for me. I have a 75 topps mini set in top loaders that is nm plus. I love the set but if I graded it I would need so much room.
If you look at it in a different perspective, spending $20k for a PSA 8 vintage set is not out of line. People were paying $50k+ for 15 year old Jordan rookies and 5 year old Tiger rookies. Granted PSA 10's are challenging, even on modern cards. But I think it is much more challenging to put together a 752 card 1971 set in PSA 8 than finding a single PSA 10 card from the 80's or 90's. I also think the PSA 8 1971 set is a better investment than a modern PSA 10 rookie.
Davalillo - What is the "newest" set you plan to grade out completely? Just curious.
My next batch of 2,500 cards to psa will be football commons 1958-65, basketball commons from the early 70s and miscellaneous baseball such as 1936 S&S Game set and a few hundred 62s and 66s. In baseball if we are talking small sets probably 1969 Topps Super, 1970 Kellogg's, 1973 Topps 1953 Reprints, and perhaps 1971 Topps Greatest Moments. Larger sets my last is 1968 although I have all the sets by all manufacturers through 1991. I would say at some point I will submit 1969, 1970,1971 and 1972. Hard to imagine I will go beyond this.
I'd like to throw my hat in the ring as one who doesn't think this set will get a bid. These are unusual and uneasy times; the bottom is falling out of the modern card market, which threatens 1970s card prices as well, we are all waiting for the next big terrorist attack on U.S. soil (which is inevitable), watching our 401(k)s lose value quicker than we can put money into it, etc. We can debate the merits of the set -- I, for one, think it falls in the "impressive, borderline amazing" category, and would love to own it -- but the main issue, as Sol raised, is that the potential buyers for this set are limited. If I had an extra $25K right now, I would stick it in a money market fund and hope to God I don't lose my job and need to tap it.
Thanks. I hope you grade out the '69 baseball (regular issue). It will be interesting to see what GPA you get.
By the way, how do you plan to house all those graded cards? I plan to slowly grade out my 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973 and 1974 sets (and probably pre-1968 as I obtain them). Problem is the 1969 set alone has taken up about 20% of the space in my safe. At this rate, my house will be filled with safes. I have them in the ~60 count PSA boxes, so I can't think of a more efficient way to box them up.
I sold my complete NM+ 1971 set with PSA 8's of the Orioles Team Card, Reggie Jackson, Pete Rose, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Nolan Ryan, Tony Perez, & Drago (card 752) and about 15 comons in PSA 8 for $4,000. I think his set stands a good chance of selling. The 1971 prices have held up about as well as any set out there.
Those people holding stashes of 1971's in NM/MT or better should "cash in" as the market for 1971's appears about as strong as it's ever been.
This post deserves an award for the 'most posts of the month'
As a side note, I've been able to dump most of my PSA 1950 Bowman cards from my set... and it's funny that several of the buyers have asked me not to include invoices for fear that their wives will see the totals... ahh... if only our wives shared in the craziness of collecting...
I haven't posted on this yet so i guess i'll join in. I believe there is only a small chance of this set selling at that much of a premium over smr although if any of the 1970's set would bring over smr it would be the 71 set. Now if Steve was selling his complete set as it is on the registry I think he would definitely be looking at a sale price over smr. When talking about the sale of complete sets I believe that there are 3 issues that need to be looked at in determining potential value:
1. How many psa 9's are there. As psa 8's continue a bit of a downward spiral the psa 9's continue to pick up steam. The smr could easily downgrade most 8's but on the other hand they need to up the values on the 9's. The difference that the 9's are commanding is getting greater all of the time and will continue to do so as collectors compete to have the best set of any given year.
2. Does the set have a number of very low pop. 8's that are very difficult to obtain anywhere else. I believe this is what helped me sell my 65 set was that I had all of the very tough 65's in 8 or better. This is something that will differ from year to year. Some years have lots of psa 8's and fairly evenly distributed as compared to other years where certain cards are almost impossible to get (example: 1969)
3. Have most of the major players already obtained the cards they want in any given year or are new collectors jumping into collecting completely graded sets. Look at the impact Branca has made in some of the 1950's card values. If many new collectors are jumping in then values will rise but if the current pool of collectors remains constant then we probably will see a somewhat stagnant market for psa 8 sets.
I wish Steve the best in selling his set because if for nothing else he is a great person to buy from but I think he may be pushing the envelope on selling this one. The 71's are very difficult in psa 9 but they are fairly plentiful in psa 8. If I was collecting this set myself I would want to have somewhat less than smr in the total set upon completion. You never know - someone could jump in and say it's worth the premium and buy the set - not everything sells for what it's value is. But I will be interested to see if he pursues selling it if it doesn't sell in this auction.
Wayne, I'm not sure how closely you follow the 1971 prices but, as mentioned earlier, many of the star cards consistantly command many multiples of SMR in PSA 8 condition. The Rose, Munson, Blyleven RC, Jackson and others sell for as many as 4 to 5 times SMR. Many have been complaining to PSA for months that the SMR does not accurately reflect the prices for 1971s in PSA 8, and definitely not for PSA 9's. Though I agree that selling as a complete set will reduce those premiums, the breakup value is very high for this set. I'm sure many dealers would quickly snap this set up if it were listed at SMR. The fact that he has it listed a fair amount over SMR will chase away many profiteers. As Steve mentioned in his post, he's chosen a price point that is above wholesale but not unreasonable for a serious collector who would likely spend more if they build the set by purchasing individual graded cards.
Comments
I think it will sell and i will be the first one on the board to say im wrong if it doesnt.I agree with you that there is a lot of nice raw material out there but you cannot argue that 1971s are somewhat different then other issues.The population of 9s reflects this.You state you dont have time to run around and look for raw cards?Most of us dont.But if you did have the time ....you would realize that it is a little tougher than you think to submit 90 whatever % by yourself.
This is a truely amazing set Steve is offering and I wish him luck.
<< <i>Coachh $10.00
Luxurywines $20.00
theBobs $10.00... >>
I am good for $100 too.
PM me about the sanguillen; I can help you.
BOTR
it is that most everyone admits to
not having the cash to buy it.the result
is prices decline for baseball cards.
1) A dealer to break up - but as mentioned, the seller basically (intended) to price it above the break value, or at least above a level where a seller could make a decent return
2) Someone building a 71 Topps set in PSA 8, buying the set to upgrade - possible, but frankly someone building the set in PSA 8 (vs. 9) is probably not someone who's going to be able to drop $20K+ in one shot.
3) Someone building a run of sets in PSA 8, like Davillao - this seems like the best potential possible customer, especially because I think a lot of the major collectors working on set runs won't have much if any of a 71 Topps set graded, because '70s cards have only recently been graded.
Ultimately, whether such a set is sold via ebay or a major auction house, I think it's very telling if there are no collectors looking to buy the set complete at an aggressive price. Ultimately, all set builders are looking to complete sets - this market will be tough if the only thing that can be done with those sets, when completed, is to be broken up!
If this set sells for the opening bid price, which I think is possible, my set is for sale!
Rob
1971 Topps baseball in PSA 8 or better.
1966 Topps baseball in PSA 8 or better
1929 Kashin R316 in any grade
1966 Batmans -all varieties- PSA 8 or better
There are many amazing sets on this board but I do not consider a 1971 psa 8 set amazing--more time consuming than anything else. I do agree that 71s are modestly tougher in 8 than surrounding years but 55% grade in 8 or better. ...and there are a boatload of 8s yet to be graded.
Solomon,
I think you are correct here.
1)There are few buyers for modern era cards in set form.
2)Many collectors of this vintage seem more interested in thge chase-I am not--I just want the cards
3)Collectors are not willing to pay over smr for something not that difficult
4)In most cases, sets of this vintage will be sold to dealers at smr or less
at are great prices. Then the sets sell too low or not at all. How can we expect our sets to hold any
value without bidders?
I would think the 1971 set is the hardest 70's Topps set to build in high grade because of the
black borders. Yet I agree with Davalillo in everything he has said here. I would be surprised if
there was a bidder on doc's set.
I have red man sets that are close to being complete. I've tracked the dollars spent on each
of the sets. When I look individually at the prices it is no big deal. I would do it again. But
when I look at the dollars "invested" in total, it is alot. I wonder, if I saw my set up on ebay
around what I have in to it, would I bid?
aconte
My opinion is still the same as the last time we discussed it - the large graded Topps sets of this caliber (late vintage) that are all 8's or mostly 8's will not fetch a premium to SMR in the current hobby environment we're in. It will take another boom time in cards for someone to come in and swoop up sets like this at a premium. It will likely take new players who have plenty of cash to play with. $20,000, $30,000, will seem like nothing to them, and they will let it rip.
The smaller vintage sets from that era will do better now because it's much easier for today's breed of set collector to lay out a few thousand as opposed to $20,000-30,0000. We have seen three examples of this in the past year (ie 1963 Fleer almost all PSA 8, 1970 Kellogg's PSA 9, and 1964 Topps Giants all PSA 8).
We're just not in that kind of environment right now. We will be again one day, and that's when the larger sets will see serious action. There will probably be an exception or two along the way, and I certainly wish the seller luck. You just never know.
Like "TheBobs" said on another post:
"You make your money on the set when you buy the cards."
So what if you sell your set at 90, 100,or 110% of SMR....if you bought in at 70% SMR then youre okay. Ideally I would like to keep my set(s) when complete but if I have to sell them at least I want to break even. The only way to do this is but patient with your purchases, look for quality raw, and trade with other collectors who are closer to completion (many times they will make you a crazy offer for a card they need).
If you build the set brick by brick (ie. ebay) and if you do not buy wisely...the most likely way to recoup your investment will be to "sell it like you bought it".....slab by slab online.
John
team sets to the red man sets. I did not even take the economic side into account though.
I just thought of having 500-800 slabs of one set in the house and then figure on upgrades meaning
duplicates laying around was just too much for me. I have a 75 topps mini set in top loaders
that is nm plus. I love the set but if I graded it I would need so much room.
Davalillo must live in a mansion!!
aconte
Davalillo - What is the "newest" set you plan to grade out completely? Just curious.
My next batch of 2,500 cards to psa will be football commons 1958-65, basketball commons from the early 70s and miscellaneous baseball such as 1936 S&S Game set and a few hundred 62s and 66s.
In baseball if we are talking small sets probably 1969 Topps Super, 1970 Kellogg's, 1973 Topps 1953 Reprints, and perhaps 1971 Topps Greatest Moments.
Larger sets my last is 1968 although I have all the sets by all manufacturers through 1991. I would say at some point I will submit 1969, 1970,1971 and 1972. Hard to imagine I will go beyond this.
Davalillo
By the way, how do you plan to house all those graded cards? I plan to slowly grade out my 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973 and 1974 sets (and probably pre-1968 as I obtain them). Problem is the 1969 set alone has taken up about 20% of the space in my safe. At this rate, my house will be filled with safes. I have them in the ~60 count PSA boxes, so I can't think of a more efficient way to box them up.
By the way, were you happy with the SportsCardPlus set you won? Did you get any 9's besides the Wilhelm that came with the set?
Thanks for cheering me up! Do you have any good forecasts for us?
aconte
You would have to see it to believe it. If you live in the east or are in the east e-mail me and I will show you.
Davalillo
Those people holding stashes of 1971's in NM/MT or better should "cash in" as the market for 1971's appears about as strong as it's ever been.
Regards,
Alan
<< <i>Gemint,
You would have to see it to believe it. If you live in the east or are in the east e-mail me and I will show you.
Davalillo >>
I'll second that - I've only seen Jim's collection once, but for sheer scope & quality, I've never seen anything like it before or since...
As a side note, I've been able to dump most of my PSA 1950 Bowman cards from my set... and it's funny that several of the buyers have asked me not to include invoices for fear that their wives will see the totals... ahh... if only our wives shared in the craziness of collecting...
I got you email but did not hear back from you. Are your 1950 bowman Eagles still available for
sale?
aconte
<< <i>Gemint,
You would have to see it to believe it. If you live in the east or are in the east e-mail me and I will show you.
Davalillo >>
Thanks for the offer. I live on the west coast but will drop you a note if I'm in the region sometime.
1. How many psa 9's are there. As psa 8's continue a bit of a downward spiral the psa 9's continue to pick up steam. The smr could easily downgrade most 8's but on the other hand they need to up the values on the 9's. The difference that the 9's are commanding is getting greater all of the time and will continue to do so as collectors compete to have the best set of any given year.
2. Does the set have a number of very low pop. 8's that are very difficult to obtain anywhere else. I believe this is what helped me sell my 65 set was that I had all of the very tough 65's in 8 or better. This is something that will differ from year to year. Some years have lots of psa 8's and fairly evenly distributed as compared to other years where certain cards are almost impossible to get (example: 1969)
3. Have most of the major players already obtained the cards they want in any given year or are new collectors jumping into collecting completely graded sets. Look at the impact Branca has made in some of the 1950's card values. If many new collectors are jumping in then values will rise but if the current pool of collectors remains constant then we probably will see a somewhat stagnant market for psa 8 sets.
I wish Steve the best in selling his set because if for nothing else he is a great person to buy from but I think he may be pushing the envelope on selling this one. The 71's are very difficult in psa 9 but they are fairly plentiful in psa 8. If I was collecting this set myself I would want to have somewhat less than smr in the total set upon completion. You never know - someone could jump in and say it's worth the premium and buy the set - not everything sells for what it's value is. But I will be interested to see if he pursues selling it if it doesn't sell in this auction.
wayne