PCGS' Great Grading Inconsistency of 2002
RGL
Posts: 3,784 ✭
Much angst -- and many megabytes -- have spilled forth on these boards in recent months from true numismatists -- most highly specialized and knowledgable in their fields -- about PCGS' "tighter" grading standards of the past few months. It occurred to me tonight, and I have never seen the matter raised, what became the fabled grading set in Newport Beach? We are told PCGS has compiled what must be a very valuable set of what must be a nearly complete (grade-wise) set of coins in every series. Are they ever used? Are new graders ever told to truck home the set of PR-60-69 (cam designations, as well) proof Barbers or Trade Dollars for the weekend and bone up? (I volunteer for spot duty, but postage/insurance both ways is on PCGS.)
Of course, when one grades an average of one coin every 10 seconds or so, there is not much time for research and consultation in the form of reviewing the supposed end-all, be-all grading set. But, with the acknowledgement not every grader will be right on with every coin no matter how deep their experience and expertise, there surely be must be -- and indeed if PCGS is to survive as No. 1, its market demands it -- more consistency.
These boards are replete with specialists who report they are sending in superior coins, only to find their newly slabbed treasures are grading a point or two lower than existing coins in their collections, despite the new submissions being higher-quality coins when compared to the slabs on hand. This, above all else, is a crucial element of third-party opinions. A collector, with his cash and the quality of his/her set on the line, wants assurances that if he/she bids sight-unseen on a PR-67 it is the equal to those already in his or her collection. Sure, there may be the delight of receiving a coin a grade better in a grade-worse slab -- and this perhaps fulfill the very insightful advice to buy the coin, not the slab -- but it poses value/liquidity problems for the collector. A dealer and most buyers, short of superior eye candy, are not going to offer PR-68 prices for a coin in a PR-67 slab. Most of us collect for the sure enjoyment of it, but value and cost does have its place, particularly when you consider we are but temporary custodians of these coins until they are passed on to generations of collectors only now in grade school or in diapers or as yet unborn. Those we leave behind, most with no numismatic experience, deserve some assurances they can recoup our wasted time and dollars!
There is no quicker way to alienate your base of customers than to tell them while you may have a superior coin compared to others in your set, it is going to grade the same -- or worse. If there is anything David Hall must do to allay any fears accompanying Rick Montgomery's departure or quiet the ever-deepening grumbling, it is to demand consistency of his graders. A MS-65 today, again given expected variances, should be a MS-65 four years from now. We think the graders have been given too little time to familiarize themselves with the grading sets. Take a few days off, back up the submissions, we will wait. Get a better handle on the baseline of what you are doing and what coins deserve what grades. If a grader has well-earned expertise on a particular coin or series, his/her opinion should carry more weight than the grader who is perhaps not as familiar with the particular area. Finally, the "finalizer" or last-review grader should be a superior numismatist who is encouraged at every step to question gradings and send them back for another review or consultation. This person should carry no-questions-asked authority and be paid a very good sum to weed out dogs with great grades and gems slabbed as 63s. PCGS graders also have shown a very annoying tendency to err on the side of extreme caution and body bag way too many coins as AT, cleaned, etc., despite posts on these boards (and I do not doubt them for a moment) of testaments of originality. Don't guess -- know. Graders should become very familiar with the hallmarks of what should receive a body bag or a slab.
At any rate, a few thoughts, with rebuttals and comments welcomed from fellow board members.
Want to shore up your base of customers and the market for your slabs, Mr. Hall and PCGS: CONSISTENCY.
Of course, when one grades an average of one coin every 10 seconds or so, there is not much time for research and consultation in the form of reviewing the supposed end-all, be-all grading set. But, with the acknowledgement not every grader will be right on with every coin no matter how deep their experience and expertise, there surely be must be -- and indeed if PCGS is to survive as No. 1, its market demands it -- more consistency.
These boards are replete with specialists who report they are sending in superior coins, only to find their newly slabbed treasures are grading a point or two lower than existing coins in their collections, despite the new submissions being higher-quality coins when compared to the slabs on hand. This, above all else, is a crucial element of third-party opinions. A collector, with his cash and the quality of his/her set on the line, wants assurances that if he/she bids sight-unseen on a PR-67 it is the equal to those already in his or her collection. Sure, there may be the delight of receiving a coin a grade better in a grade-worse slab -- and this perhaps fulfill the very insightful advice to buy the coin, not the slab -- but it poses value/liquidity problems for the collector. A dealer and most buyers, short of superior eye candy, are not going to offer PR-68 prices for a coin in a PR-67 slab. Most of us collect for the sure enjoyment of it, but value and cost does have its place, particularly when you consider we are but temporary custodians of these coins until they are passed on to generations of collectors only now in grade school or in diapers or as yet unborn. Those we leave behind, most with no numismatic experience, deserve some assurances they can recoup our wasted time and dollars!
There is no quicker way to alienate your base of customers than to tell them while you may have a superior coin compared to others in your set, it is going to grade the same -- or worse. If there is anything David Hall must do to allay any fears accompanying Rick Montgomery's departure or quiet the ever-deepening grumbling, it is to demand consistency of his graders. A MS-65 today, again given expected variances, should be a MS-65 four years from now. We think the graders have been given too little time to familiarize themselves with the grading sets. Take a few days off, back up the submissions, we will wait. Get a better handle on the baseline of what you are doing and what coins deserve what grades. If a grader has well-earned expertise on a particular coin or series, his/her opinion should carry more weight than the grader who is perhaps not as familiar with the particular area. Finally, the "finalizer" or last-review grader should be a superior numismatist who is encouraged at every step to question gradings and send them back for another review or consultation. This person should carry no-questions-asked authority and be paid a very good sum to weed out dogs with great grades and gems slabbed as 63s. PCGS graders also have shown a very annoying tendency to err on the side of extreme caution and body bag way too many coins as AT, cleaned, etc., despite posts on these boards (and I do not doubt them for a moment) of testaments of originality. Don't guess -- know. Graders should become very familiar with the hallmarks of what should receive a body bag or a slab.
At any rate, a few thoughts, with rebuttals and comments welcomed from fellow board members.
Want to shore up your base of customers and the market for your slabs, Mr. Hall and PCGS: CONSISTENCY.
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Comments
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
The Ludlow Brilliant Collection (1938-64)
A grading set might be a nice concept but on a practical basis, it does little to promote consistency at the level that many want/demand.
Just to use one example, let's say a grader is looking at a $20 Liberty and decides to compare it to those in the grading set. It's better than the MS 63 in the set but inferior to the MS 64. The set might have helped him to determine that it's either a 63 or a 64 (although hopefully, he already knew that!) but it doesn't allow him to compare an identical coin to the one he's grading, to come up with the precise/correct grade. No working grading set could possibly have enough coins in it, to be truly effective, on a practical basis.
As long as people grade coins and as long as one coin of the same type is different from another (even in the slightest of many possible ways), grading will be imperfect and inconsistent. Our best realistic hope is that those inconsistencies are kept to a minimum.
One other thing which I have mentioned in another thread on the U.S. Coin Forum, where I typically hang out is, that even if grading were perfect, there would still be numerous complaints. The reason for that is, that many non-experts (and some supposed experts, too) do not know how to grade properly/accurately. They would still think that the "perfect" grading was incorrect.
I am also convinced that PCGS is no longer thorough with their grading. They need to be more diligent through the grading process. Case in point, this week I got back a submission of Jef nickels. Included is a 58-D, completely fully struck, blazing fully rounded steps, 6 STEPS actually!, no marks on the steps whatsoever. You don't need a glass to see them, a no brainer. Yet... no FS desgnation. This one coin is part of a large submission that got similar consideration. Consistent inconsistency! I spent over $700 on grading fees and feel like I just p*ssed away the money. For $700, they could've paid a little atttention. This is not an atypical phenomenon.
So regardless whether you want to group us as non-experts or supposed experts, I've seen enough myself (whatever I am), and have heard from enough collectors and dealers whose judgement I respect. PCGS needs to regain consistency, and needs to get back to blocking and tackling through the grading process.
You asked "PCGS grading standards have changed - I'm convinced. You're not?".
Yes, I am convinced, by the way. However, I see a lot of people complain about grading who are unrealistic in their hopes/expectations because of dollar signs in their heads. And, there are many others who complain and simply don't know how to grade. My point is that yes, the grading has been tighter, but I always take some of the complaints with a grain of salt.
This summer, we (4 of us) were sitting down for lunch near the convention site. One of us took out his coins to show us. He felt that his coins were undergraded. As a test, the 3 of us would try to grade his coins. For each coin, except one, the three of us agreed with each other as well as the grade on the slab.
(The sole exception was a raw dime that I couldn't see in the poor light, and I admitted so immediately.)
Our buddy was surprised that the three of us all agreed...
I guess sometimes it is harder to grade one's own coins.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Truer words have never been spoken.
edited to add: I have only submitted modern coins in the last 2 or 3 years. I don't see PCGS being any tougher on moderns, although they are tougher than other grading companies (for moderns).
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
Todd
800.954.0270
Your post is, of course, right on target regarding many of the complaints. I do however still own a 1964 AH Kennedy that so far has been an old holder PR65 Dcam, a body bag, and a current PR67 Cam. I certainly understand grading being a subjective process, and I probably could pose a pretty convincing argument for that coin being any one of the three grades it has been given. I believe it's a PR66 Cam. I'm sure the PCGS folks can easily search my submission history and find the trail. I know you wouldn't really grade from a scan, but I respect your opinion, and wonder if you would comment on the coins in this thread?
Ike thread
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I looked at the Ike dollar and graded it 65 (really hard to tell from the images, though).
By the way, your assessment of your Kennedy half (as a PR66) is a great example of consensus grading - take PCGS's grades of 1) body bag, 2) PR65DCAM and 3) PR67 CAM, stir it up a bit with a dash of witch's brew and you can arrive at an average grade of PR66CAM.
I rarely participate on this forum, so it was luck that I saw your question to me. In the future, if you have a question and don't receive a fairly quick reply, please feel free to PM me.
Ronyahski - sorry that our disagreement hit a dead end of agreement - we'll have to argue some other time, I guess. I don't always agree with your points but I like the way you present them in a non combative way.
and seems they are tight now as 4 years ago...............
<< <i>and seems they are tight now as 4 years ago............... >>
tight is fine if they remain consistant!
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
subject came up in numerous conversations. Consistency was the buzzword in these conversations. As
you stated, what was graded ms65 four or five years ago, must "make" the grade today. To arbitrarily
tighten grading standards, decreases our collections value. My recent experience is a crack out gone bad.
Recieved a MS65FS designation on a 1949-S Jefferson last summer. It is a nice coin and thought it had a shot
at MS66FS. Came back in a MS65 holder this past December. I'm getting MS65 Jeffs back that appear to be
nicer than PCGS holdered MS66 Jeffs. Mr. Hall, I realize that it cost your business 10K buying back the
60-D, but have the Graders overreacted?
IMHO our best argument would be same coin different grade.
In the course of 1 year I sent to PCGS a 71-D Ike that IMHO is a top MS66 coin, it is
a PKOK (color Ike) not a mark on the coin, great strike, but has subdued luster!!
3 different submissions
1st MS63
2nd Questionable color
3rd MS65
I understand the QC, but two grades different? Maybe because of the color they downgraded
the first submission?
And, what exactly are those "expected variances"? Natural gradeflation? Or?
First, most of us know that the top 25% in quality of the slabs from the "early years" are now 1 point or even more higher graded under todays' standards. And, this has nothing to do with only PCGS. The earliest NGC slabs were spectacular examples of undergraded coins under todays' standards I believe as well. I recently graded an old NGC slab (Barber coin) two points and a designation higher at PCGS (in these "tough times"). But, following the "early years" came other periods of "variances". I am not sure why this thread refers to 2002 as a year of "great grading inconsistency". Wasn't the grading service(s) consistent in the grading throughout that year, albeit possibly "relatively looser" than 2004 or 2005? Again, coins graded in the first couple years were spectacularly undergraded compared to subsequent years, so you could easily label this thread "The grading companies great grading inconsistency of 1987 or 1988 or frankly any other year, as any given year only has meaning when comparing to nearly all the rest.
Reviewing an old "grading set" would be meaningless IMHO. When I was in the PCGS dealer lobby the other day, I saw an older poster of the King of Siam Proof set. Although I admit I have not been following the set all that closely, I do recall following it throughout the years from PCGS holders, to NGC holders and back to PCGS holders - with (correct me if I am wrong) many signifiicant grading changes on a number of coins in the set throughout the years all along the way. Assume for the moment that the "grading set" for those particular classics was the first holders through of that King of Siam set. Now, honestly, of what use would that old grading set have to any graders today?
Wondercoin
Not necessarily. If the grading set contains the worst possible example for each grade, the grading set can be relatively small and very useful.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>.......it is now 2006 ;
and seems they are tight now as 4 years ago............... >>
Not when we're talking 67RD Lincolns from the 40's and 50's. They're much tighter now. No doubt about it. It's almost to the point where I'll jump ship. I've already curtailed my submissions quite a bit.