Alright. . .now this is ridiculous!
mcastaldi
Posts: 1,232 ✭✭✭
We all saw the 1975T Will McEnaney PSA8 go for over $200. Since that time, the population has increased by one and now stands at three in PSA8. The second PSA8 to hit eBay is here. Based on the last auction, I can understand this one in the $120 range.
But. . .
Check out this1975T Pete LaCokc PSA8. This card has a pop of eight in PSA8. [NOTE: Had to spell the player's name wrong because of PSA's piece-o-turd naughty word filtering]
Completely insane!
Mike
But. . .
Check out this1975T Pete LaCokc PSA8. This card has a pop of eight in PSA8. [NOTE: Had to spell the player's name wrong because of PSA's piece-o-turd naughty word filtering]
Completely insane!
Mike
So full of action, my name should be a verb.
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Comments
didn't jo joy win the other mcenaney?
jack confused
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
jack
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
RedHeart> Well. . .while what you say is potentially true, there are a few things which discount your theories.
1) The current market - for the past few months, if you put up mid-to-high pop PSA8 commons you'll be lucky to get $8 each for them - unless they're perceived to be a "tough card" (more on this later). A couple weeks ago, I put up several PSA8 commons with starting prices of $6 and buy-it-now prices at $8. Of that batch, I had four or five that got no bids at all.
2) While there are 20+ sets registered, there are significantly fewer being actively built - Right now, there are 60 sets in the "Current Finest" list. Of those, only fourteen have completion percentages above 15%. The total rises to 16 when the two non-registered sets I know of are included. Of those 16, two are 99.5% or more - so they're not competing for cards anymore. Two more are over 80% complete so they are only competing on a few cards. So that leaves 12 other sets - and of those at least half are dormant right now. So the number of serious players remaining is easily less than 10 - and probably closer to five.
3) Not all the registered sets are "are all trying to get the best possible set" - for one thing, if you're trying to get the "best possible set" for the 1975 issue, you're not messing around with PSA8s - you're shooting for 9s. Also, if you look at the registered sets there are several in the top 20 with weighted GPAs if quite a bit less than 8.0. . .one is 7.00 (58% complete). . .another at 7.66. . .another at 7.40. . .etc
4) For many bidders, perception equals reality - and they bid on the perception rather than the reality -- The LaCokc, for example was once considered a "tough card". The population is now 8 and yet it still sells in the $20-$25 range. Cliff Johnson (#143) is another example. On August 16, the Johnson had a pop of 2 in PSA8 and one in PSA9. On October 3 - six weeks later - the PSA8 population had shot up to 7. Today the PSA8 pop stands at 8. And yet it still brings in $20+ where other cards of equal population often go in the $8-$10 range - if that much. Other examples of this are Leo Foster - pop 7 with two 9s. . .Dave LaRoche - curent pop is seven 8s with six 9s - and there's still a PSA8 up right now in the $22 range!!!. . .Ken Singleton - pop 7 with two 9s. . .Dave Duncan - pop 9 with one PSA9. People are still bidding on these cards like the're still super-tough and they're just not that tough anymore.
The thing that surprises me with the LaCokc is how much time is left - over 5 days. In looking at the bid history, it seems the top bidder is a Cubs collector who allowed himself to be run up in a pretty serious way.
Mike
"There's no crying in baseball card set building."
mcastaldi,
I'm not at all familiar with the 75 set, so these are questions and not an opinions. Do you think people believe that, because this card is perceived as tough, it will not rise in population similar to other cards with like populations? I'm sure you've seen many LaCokc's, and do they normally come off-center, PD'ed, etc..., therefore making them unsubmittable in PSA 8, whereas other cards usually come well centered, but have dinged corners, edges, but have a better likelihood of getting an 8 in the future?
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
I'm not so much saying people don't think the card will rise in population, more that the bidding patterns for the "perceived tough" cards have not changed much as the population for those cards has increased. As a result, people are bidding based on their perception of a card's scarcity rather than the reality of the population which says that it's really no tougher than many other cards. I'm sure this is not limited to the 1975 set. But I think with all the mid-70s sets and newer there's still a large untapped quantity of submittable cards. For example, I have a story about a little local hole-in-the-wall card shop. I'd been there before looking for 72s and found they were junk. But shortly atfter National, I went back there on a whim to see if they had any 75s. Lo and behold they had about 3000 1975s that looked like they were straight from vending or rack packs. Since then, I've been through that box on five different occasions and bought in the neighborhood of 350 of the best and most submittable cards out of it. After my second visit, I started thinking about it and asked myself - if this little nothing card shop has perfect runs of 75s, how many other little hole-in-the-wall card shops across the country have them too? ten shops? one hundred shops? I can't believe this little place is alone in this regard. And this doesn't take into account all the perfect sets assembled by the "Joe Collector" types out there. It's this line of thinking that affects my attitude toward the relationship between population and bidding price. Obviously some cards are going to remain the tougher cards in the set, but I think too many bidders underestimate the potential of population increases. As I said in another thread - "time is the great equalizer".
Mike
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
I think you hit the nail on the head there. Any challenging Cubs card is likely to bring some strong bids.
I also think this is crazy. Though most of the wax out there is the mini size, there are tons of cellos and racks of the regular size just waiting to be opened. There are still plenty of vending quality sets out there too. Even the toughest card in the set will likely have a healthy population down the road. The $5 grading special is likely to drive the populations up on these newer common cards.
Mike
Enema...is that the first use of that word on these boards? Fitting for the buyer of Peter Marshall's son-in-law in PSA 8.
1) Are the bidders not doing their homework with regard to the pop report? At least for me, the report determines how aggressively I'm going after a card. I assume there will be no major jump in the pop for that card in the near future, especially if it's a vintage set or a set in which very few examples are submitted.
2) How often does a card come up for sale? If a card is at pop 3 last week and is at pop 10 this week, but there are no new copies offered for sale within a reasonable amount of time, how do they know, for example, that there is one guy with all seven newly graded copies who plans on taking them to his grave? Plausable? Not very likely. But I'm sure there are people who have multiple copies of a given grade. Or, of course, several copies are distributed among several collectors who won't sell them because they're part of their sets. The POPULATION supply is high according to the report, but the MARKET supply is actually low because of one guy or several guys. How will a bidder know this? He can compare the pop numbers with the set registry to determine the availability of a card. Or, as most collectors probably do, he simply gauges the scarcity by how often the card comes up for sale.
In this specific case, we're talking about a very volatile set (1975) with regards to pop numbers. There appears to be a large amount of unopened material available. Plus, as mcastaldi demonstrates, there are dealers with vast, virtually untouched (mint) inventories that are just sittng around collecting dust. We have discussions about this all the time with regard to the future and what has yet to be discovered. However, what we have available NOW is what we have. That's what the market is based on. If more become available, then I guess we'll have a buyer's market when prices fall (further). The great thing will be for those who can't see paying $150 for a Pete LaCokc. Neither will anyone else!!
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
<< <i>helio> I wouldn't say #8 is Bob Booneian. . .rather, I'd say your set at #8 is Yastremskian
Mike >>
Good one. I couldn't think of a prominent #8. I was thinking Berra was #6 for some reason. My Phillies fanhood comes through again.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
THIS IS NOT A LOW-POP CARD!!!!!!!
Mike