Sky's 67 set for sale?
doc
Posts: 37
Just got an email from superior mentioning the #1 1967 set is being auctioned off... Joel, is this yours? If so, best of luck to you!!!
Steve
Steve
0
Comments
I can't say I'm surprised to hear this. I predicted several weeks ago (on this forum) that many of the top sets would find the auction block or be otherwise sold. Look at what has happened:
1969 #1-Bob
1965 #3-Wayne
1967 #1-Joel
I'm sure there are others that I don't know about because I just don't follow those years. But like Rush Limbaugh said, "I told you so."
I'm sure the registry awards probably delayed the selling of some sets that might have been sold sooner....but I think the market is also maturing to the point where there are now complete sets to be sold. I for one am curious, since I both collect and deal in PSA 8s.
I've got a complete set now myself in 8s ('71) and have been making some initial inquiries into the possiblility of selling it. I'm not giving up on the set or the year, but if I can make a fair profit on the set, and the set would go to a collector....heck, I'd be more than happy to sell it and try to do it all over again.
I think you'll eventually see the same thing with graded cards as you've always seen with raw cards. Collectors buy them individually to make sets. For ever reason they sell their sets which end up back in the hands of dealers who break them up and sell them to other people making sets. Repeat. Its a popular business model in the card biz used by many dealers and I think the same thing will start occuring pretty soon with graded cards on an increasingly larger scale.
Joel - good luck if you do decide to sell your set. You probably have the 2nd best set of the 1960's and I hope it brings a huge premium for you.
Doc - in the model that you mentioned it would be a financial disaster for collectors to sell entire sets. The dealers would have to buy at a decent discount to turn the dollars. I would hope that there are a few collectors out there who collect sets from many years and would create a market for those selling entire sets at once. We'll see.
Wayne
<< <i>Doc - in the model that you mentioned it would be a financial disaster for collectors to sell entire sets. The dealers would have to buy at a decent discount to turn the dollars. I would hope that there are a few collectors out there who collect sets from many years and would create a market for those selling entire sets at once. We'll see. >>
Wayne...that is so true. To be honest...you really hit the jackpot when you sold your set to a Mastro who can use your set to upgrade his personal set...but has the outlet to auction what is remaining as a completely graded set (he has no commission plus he will get the 15% buyers juice)
I just do not see a market where "private collectors" have/will be spending big $$$'s for the "large" Topps graded sets from 60's or 70's.
Lets face it guys...to REALLY understand the crazy prices paid from low-pop commons ($100-300) one most likely needs to be a active collector in that years particular set. When it comes to selling a complete graded set to either another dealer or collector...SMR is King. That will be the first question asked by whoever is buying it....whether it be a dealer or fellow collector. I am not so positive that they are going to care that you paid $150 way back when for a PSA 8 Low-Pop common.
My Golden Rule to make your money back when selling graded sets
Sell the set in the matter that you built it...plain and simple. If you built it brick by brick off of ebay...you will get killed selling it as a whole. If you built it through your own submissions (much less expensive in the long run) or converted a nm/mt raw set you had......... then selling it off as one complete set would be a great option.
John
If a set is loaded with low pop cards and cards generally in high demand then it will put a lot of pressure on the collectors really chasing a set to buy it all or pass at an opportunity to significantly upgrade. I could see other collectors buying others sets and selling off the pieces just for the 50-100 upgrades to their sets. We all know collectors who have the ability to do that without batting an eye. That's just my take on it. Anyone can collect the first 50% of a set well under smr but the problem is trying to buy the next 50% under smr and then do it in extremely high grades. I would bet that if you polled each owner of the number 1 sets in the 1960's that most would have well over smr in the set and would expect to pay well over smr to upgrade individual cards. Just my 2 cents.
Wayne
One interesting fact about price-guide pricing: The complete set price in the SMR guide IS the breakup value, while in Beckett, the breakup value is generally 50-100% above the complete set price. If you don't believe it, add up the single card prices in both sources, as I have done.
So buying a complete ungraded set and busting it makes sense. Doing the same to a graded set may not.
John makes a great point, though, about selling. As long as there are plenty of set-building collectors, busting one up to sell singles is the way to go, as long as you did not pay full price for the graded set in the first place. I think what Wayne did was unusual, but which one of us wouldn't take it all once, as he did?
The thrill of the chase is in building the thing, then seeing the entire 598-child family go to one home, in exchange for full guide price, single-card value. Wayne, count your blessings! You just pulled off the HAT TRICK.
So far, the member of this board who goes by wait-til-they-try-to-sell has been wrong, has he not?
I'm not sure there are too many collectors out there that would spend $30k on a set..upgrade say 50-100 cards then be stuck with 500 misc cards. Chances these are the same guys who "do not have time to scour ebay" so surely they do not have time to list 500 cards on ebay. Yes they could sell the remains to a dealer but they are going to take a hit.
My feeling is that whomever buys the set will not take into account the $100, $200, or $300 that the set owner originally paid for that "must have" low-pop common. Yes they recognize that their should be a premium but not to the level that a "brick by brick" collector would.
John
<< <i>. I would bet that if you polled each owner of the number 1 sets in the 1960's that most would have well over smr in the set and would expect to pay well over smr to upgrade individual cards. >>
Im sure this statement is true as Wayne would know better than anyone. If this is the case though and even with Wayne scoring a "hat trick" with Mastro.....did he still not recoup his original cash outlay even selling at 100% SMR?
John
I don't consider my former set as one of the premier sets. I'm talking about Ron's 1968 set, Skylane's 1967set, and other's like those. The value of the sets lie in the low pop psa 9 upgrades. Those are the cards that the collector's throw smr out the window and just decide that they won't be second place. I know of a dealer that says when he finds a card to upgrade Ron's 1968 set he will just send it to him and let Ron decide what is fair and mail him back a check. I would be those checks aren't for smr or even double smr.
I know that Dan Schatzeder sold off a large block of his 65 set for 150% of smr. He probably (in my estimation) is well ahead of smr in breaking it up but he also has a nearly full time job in doing so. I guess that I don't consider smr for a full set as a huge home run. The future may prove me wrong but I bet we'll see other sets sell for smr or better. We can all speculate as that's all that I'm doing, but only time will tell how these complete sets fair. But I will stand by my prediction that the higher the overall set rating - the higher percentage of smr (whether over or under) it will bring.
Wayne
This thread is generating a lot of thought in my "accounting and statistics" brain. I keep pretty good, if not meticulous records on what I spend on this insanity. I have several near-complete to complete vintage sets. Currently, taking the value at SMR and comparing what I've got into them, I'm 55% ahead on my "investment." Some sets, I'm way ahead, others I'm barely break-even. It all depends on how many nice raw cards I started with. Here's how I calculated it for each set:
(1) Take the set value in SMR in NM-MT 8. Say, for example it's $18,000.
(2) Multiply by the percent complete, for instance, 66.67% to get $12,000.
(3) Multiply that by the GPA rating. (If I'm at 7.60, use .60, if I'm at 8.20, use 1.20: $12,000 x .60 = $7,200). That, crudely is the value of my set. It's also the most a willing buyer should pay for the set at full retail.
(4) Add up the cost of the raw cards, plus the grading fees, plus the cards I already bought graded.
(5) Divide the line (3) answer by line (4), minus 1.00 to get % of value of collection in relation to cost.
If I had more time, I could add up the single card PSA 7 & 8 values to get a slightly higher number for step (3), but you get the idea.
Applying that formula to Wayne's set could go like this:
SMR 8 value of 1965 set: $18,041
Percent complete 100% $18,041
Set rating 8.38 = 1.38 $24,896
Conclusion: The buyer may have overpaid at $28,700, but if Wayne had less than $24,896 in it, he built it efficiently and if he had less than $28,700 in it, he made money.
1965 TOPPS
Card Name , Cost of card , S/H Fee Paid , Total Cost of Card, SMR, % of SMR PAID
#128 V. Davalillo $29.95 , $3.50 , $33.45 , $18.00 , 185.83%
Repeat this process for the rest of the cards in the set...then just total at the bottom.
(Note: cost of card could either be Ebay final bid or cost of the raw card plus grading fee)
If I send in a batch to be graded I spread out the SH/Insurance fees (there and back) evenly over the 25 card submission (for example).
Using formulas you can easily see at any time where you are at compared to SMR while building your set. I find it important to take into account all of those $2.00 or $3.00 shipping fees as they add up over time. Obviously, buying multiple lots of a seller will reduce your cost
This take about 3 minutes to design on Excel and should be a must for anyone who is building a graded set.
John
I just want to pass along some information on Joel's behalf.
First, Joel indeed is selling his set in the next Superior auction. However, it will be broken up into approximately 250 lots. He feels (and I agree) that this is a win-win situation for collectors as well as for him and Superior. Joel is currently not working on any other sets and should not be confused with another eBay member named "flyliner28".
Second, I'm sure some of you are wondering why Joel is selling this premier set. If any of you have ever met Joel, like I have had the privilege of meeting him at the 2000 Anaheim National, he is a tremendous person who is very kind and unselfish. As many of you know, Joel's main love is flying his private plane. For the past 4 months or so, he has been devoting all of his spare time doing volunteer rescue work in the air, like taking people who live far from large airports to hospitals for treatments and to rescue dogs. This is his calling in life for now, and he feels doesn't have the time and energy anymore to devote to building or upgrading this set.
Finally, on a personal note, I watched Joel vicariously build this set, card by card. It is a stunning set and this is an opportunity of a lifetime to own some of the best '67 Topps Baseball examples in existence.
Joel (wherever you are) - a truly outstanding feat with your '67 Topps Set. It's one for the ages, and I hope you realize some strong prices at auction.
BTW, by selling his set and doing the type of work Dude described, Joel has now reached legendary mystical status as he flys off into a thick of clouds way into the wild blue yonder...
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
The relative ease of selling a complete graded set slab by slab just adds to the attractevness of the sets like Red Man, Red Heart, 1963 Fleer, 74 Deckles, etc. Just thinking about doing it with the 72's gives me quite a headache.
John
a little off topic...i can honestly see the appeal of selling a complete PSA graded set on an auction house like superior or mastro
i mean selling each card on ebay really adds up in time, work, hassles etc.
however i just dont see the harm in listing the whole set on ebay.
say wayne's set. ...why not put it up for auction w/ a buy it now of 30 grand and a reserve of course.
if it doesnt sell ...fine you are out a few bucks and if it does sell...you will get your money in a few days.
whats the harm?
Ethan
Groucho Marx
<< <i>
(1) Take the set value in SMR in NM-MT 8. Say, for example it's $18,000.
(2) Multiply by the percent complete, for instance, 66.67% to get $12,000.
(3) Multiply that by the GPA rating. (If I'm at 7.60, use .60, if I'm at 8.20, use 1.20: $12,000 x .60 = $7,200). That, crudely is the value of my set. It's also the most a willing buyer should pay for the set at full retail.
(4) Add up the cost of the raw cards, plus the grading fees, plus the cards I already bought graded.
(5) Divide the line (3) answer by line (4), minus 1.00 to get % of value of collection in relation to cost. >>
I have a little different take on set valuation. First, for step 2, it is not fair to multiply by the percent complete. Most times, an incomplete set is missing the tough low pop cards that go for much higher prices. Thus a 70% set is not usually worth 70% of a complete set. Occasionally, someone just like to collect the tough cards, and leaves out the commons. Acowa's '61 set is an example of this. Here, a 70% set may be worth more than 70% of a cmplete set. I would consider this second situation much more rare.
I believe that multiplying by the GPA rating really throws off the math. it may work ok for sets between 7.00 and 8.00, but when you get above 8.0, it severely understimates the value. A set rating of 8.50 genetally means 1/2 8's, and 1/2 9's. A "9" is worth conservatively on average 4X an 8, so a set with rating of 8.50 would be worth 250% of a set at 8.0, not 150% as the formula in step three gives us.
<< <i>If I had more time, I could add up the single card PSA 7 & 8 values to get a slightly higher number for step (3), but you get the idea.
Applying that formula to Wayne's set could go like this:
SMR 8 value of 1965 set: $18,041
Percent complete 100% $18,041
Set rating 8.38 = 1.38 $24,896
Conclusion: The buyer may have overpaid at $28,700, but if Wayne had less than $24,896 in it, he built it efficiently and if he had less than $28,700 in it, he made money. >>
Based on my analysis above, I would say that a buyer that paid $28,700 for Wayne's set got a good deal. In fact, I would back that up by saying that I would buy anyones complete Topps Baseball set from 1960 to 1967 with a set rating 8.00 or above for SMR, with the qualifier that the PSA 9's need to be spread among commons and stars, and not just stars alone, which tend to command less than SMR.
buck
Buckwheat,
Joel's '67 would be a great example to test your hypothesis, since it's at 8.6 or so. However, my understanding is that it's being sold in pieces.
Still, Wayne's set is the best proof we have at this point: a willing buyer and willing seller, neither pressured to complete the deal. At $28,700 it sold for 1.59 x SMR for a straight 8 set (book $18,041), which is nowhere near 250% of SMR. But it was close to my calculation based on its 8.38 rating. The slight premium could be attributed to the fact that the buyer has the #1 set and Wayne surely had some 9's that Maestro was missing.
Perhaps even more telling, a straight 9 set "books" for $78,765. Wayne's 8.38 set sold for 36% of SMR 9. Maybe just a coincidence? However, I think my formula, as a crude estimator, works just fine.
As for your offer to buy 8.00 (and above) sets at SMR, an 8.00 set will have very few 9's in it. Notwithstanding a few low pop. 8's, I think you will overpay based on today's market. As populations increase and graded cards proliferate, SMR prices will most certainly subside. Although I've heard and read to the contrary, I seriously doubt if we'll see strong resurgence in prices 2-5 years hence. The bloom is clearly off this rose.
This presents an interesting situation: Jim Merrill and Dan Markel are literally neck and neck for #2 spot on the registry...
Regards,
Alan
Regarding Jim Merrill's and me, I have no high ambitions to become the next "1967 Topps King". I'm very good friends with Jim and there truly isn't a nicer guy in the hobby. He's bought countless cards from me the past 18 months through direct sales and never haggled once on prices and always paid me via Paypal within minutes of completing our communications. Furthermore, he was kind enough to buy me a drink at the refreshment stand at the National and even bought me dinner at a very nice eatery that evening. If that wasn't enough, he just sent me a 1967 semi-hi PSA 9 common in the mail out of the blue that I needed for my set. I asked him what he wanted for it and he told me to just send him something similar in the future when I get something he needs. The guy is just super nice. In fact, he's too nice. It's sickening!
So there's no bitter rivalry with Jim. He's helped me make my set what it is today. I'm sure in due time Jim will eventually pass Sky's #1 spot and I'll be the first to congratulate him.
In order to truly understand if any graded set is a "good deal" for the buyer...it helps to have studied the Ebay market for Low-Pop 8's, PSA 9's & 10's for a siginificant amount of time. Theres only a handful of us that have done this on a daily basis for the 1965's over the past year.
John
Toppsgun- When we determined the price of the set we took each individual cards smr value and added it up to come up with the price. We both added up the smr value and came up with the same number. What I believe will be really telling is if he decides to auction off a similiar 1965 complete set in his December auction - that sales prices will speak volumes. I hope he decides to auction it as a whole just to see what it brings.
Buck - I agree with you completely.
Wayne
If he wants to maximize his sales revenue, he should bust it like Joel is doing with his '67 set.
...sure is a nice view out here all alone on the fringe.
Am I mistaken, or wasn't Waynes set 8.20? that is how it is listed now, anyway.
At 8.20, your formula comes out to 18041 X 1.20 = $21,649. That is much less than what it sold for. The way I roughly calculated it would be 0.2 X 4 + 0.8 X 1 X SMR = $28,865 which is much closer to the sales price. In any case, Wayne told us he got about SMR for it. I think that is a fair price, but not a great price for Wayne. While he maybe could have realized more by selling it piecemeal, he left that work to Mastro, and thus left that value on the table, so to speak. A fair deal in my mind. I don't think Mastro would have bought it just to upgrade their set, and take a beating on the price.
Also, you have said that the price Wayne got is the market price because it is between a willng seller and a willing buyer. That is true. It is also true that I have said that I am a willing buyer willing to pay SMR for any complete set from 1960 to 1967, and so far, I have not received any offers. That tells me that the market price is higher than SMR.
A couple of other points. I follow the '61 set very closely. Low pop cards in this set, which has more cards graded tahn any other 60's set, have increased in price significantly over the past year, not decreased. It is true that some cards that were low pop, and sold high, have come down because they are no longer lo pop. Many others have gone up. A low pop 8 used to bring $70. Now they can bring $300 or more. Second point is that the SMR on 61's has increased significantly in the past 18 months. The June 2001 SMR for 61's was 19848 in PSA 8, and 82012 in PSA 9. Today it is 23605 in PSA 8 and 98595 in PSA 9. There is no sign of weakness there.
Buck
If you are interested, I have a near-set of 1965 Topps all in PSA-8's (w/ maybe 5-6 PSA-9's) - Approx 470 different cards at 78.26% w/ the 5 I added today on the registry, lotsa stars & low pops too! - I would take SMR for the whole shooting match. I love the set, but have many other sets on the back burner that i would like to start.
If interested, Email me at jaycos@qualitycards.com and we can work out the details....jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
I was going to email you and let you know I would look over your set, but decided to take a cursory look first. Your set is nice, but it is an example of a typical 75% complete set. I looked up the pop report for 65's, and it seems that on the cards with less than pop 10 in PSA 8, you have only a small percent of them. And what I would expect to be the tough cards that go for much more than SMR, you are also missing quite a few. I don't know the '65 set, but I would guess that the Tresh, Pepitone, Richardson, and Skowron cards, among other yankees and other semi stars, may well command a significant premium to SMR. You or others could certainly correct me if I am wrong here.
It is the very low pop cards, and the high demand yankees and semistars that are so expensive that bring the value of a set above SMR. One card with a pop of 3 is worth 15 to 20 average pop cards with the same SMR.
So while I would enjoy dealing with you, as I have several times in the past, I will have to pass on this one.
But if you finish the set, you've got a deal.
Buck
I wouldn't mind selling the set - then again I don't mind keeping it either. A no lose situation.
I am slowly but surely adding the cards I need piece by piece. Added 5 today to the registy, and Monday I also added 2.
As I work my way towards completion, I will think of you if you still have an interest. We are only 3 hours apart, which
has its advantages...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Keep me in mind when you get near the end. Plus, I would hate to ruin all of the fun you will have finding the last cards!!! But maybe you will be able to buy them from Mastro!
BTW, I just went through and did a quick count on your set. I count you as having 0/5 cards with pop of 5 or less in PSA 8, and 17/50 with pop from 6-10. I could have easily missed one or two, but the gist is the same.
I have a great deal of respect for guys like Wayne and Joel and the Duke of Mint and others who can complete a set in all PSA 8 or above. Truly a remarkable achievement. It takes much more than money to do it.( of course it takes a lot of green too!)
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com