Some curious IH population stats over the past 27 months

shylock

Looking over PCGS population reports from August 2000, October 2001 and the online version today, a few stats for Indian cents caught my eye:

Think PCGS has been tough this past year? The pops for 1877 RDs between Aug 2000 and Oct 2001 rose by 6 MS64s, 5 MS65s and 1 MS66. Over the past year they decreased by one in MS64 and MS65, and remained unchanged in MS63 & MS66. Aside from someone turning in two labels not a single change in the pops. 1872 RDs rose by 7 MS64s, 3 MS65s and 1 MS66 (Ally coin) the previous year. This year 2 MS64s and 1 MS65 were the only additions.

Only one MS67RD (bronze) has been made over the last 27 months (1879, during this past year). Considering the growth of the Registry over this same period, you'd have to believe at least some of NGC's 62 MS67RDs have had crossover attempts. Only one, at most, was worthy?

On the other hand, 6 copper-nickel MS67s have been made over the same period, a 44% increase to the previous total of 16!!. The single bronze M67RD represents a 1.5% increase to their previous total. Did PCGS change their standards for grading these two types, or did a hoard of copper-nickel superb gems turn up? A similar trend exists for MS66 grades. The copper-nickel pops jumped by 30% over the past 27 months while the bronze IHs in 66RD increased by only 14.5%.

Common dates are not so common anymore, especially 1905 thru 1908 (spreadsheet). The 10 common dates still make up almost half the 66RDs of the series, but only 30 were made over the last 27 months -- none over the past year in 4 of the 10 dates. And while 65RD common dates still make up 50% of all the IHs at this grade, they increased by only 10% in 27 months while the rest of the dates increased by 17%.

PS: If anyone has pop reports from years previous to this (preferably Aug-Oct) and are willing to sell or photostat, please PM me. I'd like to extend the spreadsheet back a few more years.

(Edited to correct the MS66RD stats)

IrishMike

Paul, interesting analysis. I can't add much except to say that the dealers just laugh at me when I bring up the question of crossing over copper from NGC to PCGS, including lincolns, and large cents besides IHC. NGC is still paying for their past grading laxaties in copper.

toothpuller

Extremely interesting Paul. I guess the color guarantee on the reds may be part of the reason PCGS is reluctant to hand out that designation. After reading your statistics I don't feel quite as bad about some of the bodybags I received 6-8 months ago for questionable color . Might try again some time if they get looser.

I am absolutely not surprised that few gem commons have been made recently. They are just not around. Look at Eagle Eye's inventory there are no common 65s at all. Can't find a decent 1907 anywhere. Am almost tempted to buy any decent 65 commons that become available at a reasonable price even if I hold 3-4 of the same date.

shylock

Mike -- the stats do suggest that few NGC IHs have crossed recently in all the higher grades. Some of the 62 NGC 67RDs may have crossed years ago and still exist on NGC's census. But I'd guess a certain % of all new 66+ attempts are NGC crosses -- crackouts at recent price levels is risky -- and the few additions to the pops, combined with the many stories you hear, makes you understand what your dealer friends are laughing about. Add to that the fact that only 30 new MS66RD commons dates have been made in over two years (I corrected this stat after a cup of coffee this morning), with none made in 4 dates over the past year. NGC did have their market grading period with these, many of which still circulate from auction to auction, but I've seen a few of the 66RD NGC crossover rejects and my only response is to scratch my head.

Toothpuller -- I regret not hoarding MS65RD common dates when they were available for half today's price (not very long ago). Maybe someone did and is sitting on 10 boxes of them, biding his time as the prices get squeezed higher! Nice examples really are tough to find in 65. The pops are inflated with dogs and crackouts (these were worth the risk of cracking at their older prices), and I think that still keeps them undervalued. As the prices rise, it's probably just a matter of time before these 10 dates are no longer lumped together at one price level.

Lakesammman

Thanks for the great update - I'll send you a 1996 report if you'll PM me your address.

Wish you had disclosed all this before selling me all those NGC coins.... Can I get a refund for nondisclosure??

As noted in a earlier thread, I was 0/8 trying to cross some great NGC 66/67R coins. Guess we can't complain, can we? They've apparently listened to our complaints over hte years about lax grading.

IndianHeadMan

Good work shylock..... Now only if I could afford MS- examples. I did by a folder half completed at an estate auction this weekend.