IHC/FE cents - what's hot, what's not
Lakesammman
Posts: 17,380 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comparing the pink sheets (PS) from Winter, Spring and Fall 2002 for photosealed MS65R coins, the following trends are noted (if I had the time, I would also compare other grades - but I don't!):
Registry effect - the plain 5 1865 got left out of registry both in the basic and variety sets. PS has fallen from $4500 to $3750. If you think PCGS will reconsider, now's a good time to buy. Another registry effect was inclusion of the 1894/94 in the variety set - price up to $12,500 from $9000.
The remaining price changes are primarily due to demand and/or population changes. All the common dates ("type price") have increased to $400 from $350, the 1887 up to $1250 from $1100, 1895 to $550 from $500, 1897 to $700 from $600 and a increase of $50 each for the dates 1898 to 1900. The S mints each increased, the '08 to 1700 (from $1500), the '09 to $3750 (from $3500).
The other losers were the years 1891 to 1894, each declining by $300 each....must be a sig. pop. shift?? Anyone know of original rolls coming on the market?? The pop. comparison from 2/2000 to now (PCGS 65R) shows a significant increase in the 65R population (1891 15%, 1892 30%, 1893 22%, 1894 7%).
A often overlooked area is the Type prices on the PS. A big jump occured for the MS66 1859 Indian, from $5500 to $8000. This jump occured based on actual sales, not theory. The MS67 price for CN IHC's jumped to $8000 from $6500, again based on actual sales (auction prices realized). Registry effect?? In the bronze series, type prices for MS65R from $350 to $400, MS66R to $1500 from $1200, 67R to $5000 from $4000.
The prices are out of 70 coins/varieties listed in the pink sheet. 47 prices are unchanged.
A final note. Price sheets reflect history. They don't tell what's happening currently, nor do they predict the future. A good example is the PS price for a 1858/7 MS64 of $20,000. They are currently being offered/selling well above that price, so don't expect to be able to buy at PS prices for "hot" coins. (By the way, the 1996 PS price was $8000!)
Registry effect - the plain 5 1865 got left out of registry both in the basic and variety sets. PS has fallen from $4500 to $3750. If you think PCGS will reconsider, now's a good time to buy. Another registry effect was inclusion of the 1894/94 in the variety set - price up to $12,500 from $9000.
The remaining price changes are primarily due to demand and/or population changes. All the common dates ("type price") have increased to $400 from $350, the 1887 up to $1250 from $1100, 1895 to $550 from $500, 1897 to $700 from $600 and a increase of $50 each for the dates 1898 to 1900. The S mints each increased, the '08 to 1700 (from $1500), the '09 to $3750 (from $3500).
The other losers were the years 1891 to 1894, each declining by $300 each....must be a sig. pop. shift?? Anyone know of original rolls coming on the market?? The pop. comparison from 2/2000 to now (PCGS 65R) shows a significant increase in the 65R population (1891 15%, 1892 30%, 1893 22%, 1894 7%).
A often overlooked area is the Type prices on the PS. A big jump occured for the MS66 1859 Indian, from $5500 to $8000. This jump occured based on actual sales, not theory. The MS67 price for CN IHC's jumped to $8000 from $6500, again based on actual sales (auction prices realized). Registry effect?? In the bronze series, type prices for MS65R from $350 to $400, MS66R to $1500 from $1200, 67R to $5000 from $4000.
The prices are out of 70 coins/varieties listed in the pink sheet. 47 prices are unchanged.
A final note. Price sheets reflect history. They don't tell what's happening currently, nor do they predict the future. A good example is the PS price for a 1858/7 MS64 of $20,000. They are currently being offered/selling well above that price, so don't expect to be able to buy at PS prices for "hot" coins. (By the way, the 1996 PS price was $8000!)
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
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Comments
The $50 jump for common dates to $400 isn't a surprise, and is the second time this year they hit that high water mark. Same goes for the $50 jump in semi-commons. I was surprised they went down on the last Pink Sheet, but the prices at June Long Beach quickly corrected that. I still think that's low considering how photoseal-type quality has dried up in these dates. You use to able to find a few nice ones every month on Ebay alone. An increase in Registry (& non-Registry) type sets may be a contributing factor.
As for PS prices for MS66 type coins, that's a bit deceptive, especially for 1859. 1) How many MS66 1859s changed hands during this period, and 2) how many photosealed 59s exist in this grade? If the answer to #1 is "one", this is more of a price realized than a price index. But I guess at this level of rarity one coin can make the market. Price sheets for 66RDs get very inaccurate due to the larger price swings at this grade, and I'm sure that's why Rick Snow doesn't attempt anything more than a general type list here.
There's no doubt the big jump in MS67 copper-nickels is Registry related. We saw at least one of the recently auctioned 8K coins in a Showdown set.