The 1975 ebay bidding is getting chippy

helionaut

Looks like some collectors are getting very anxious to be the first to complete a 1975 set. A dealer sold about half the commons in PSA 8 in individual auctions that ended over the past couple days and some of the prices are pretty incredible. These aren't very common commons, but I don't think they are POP 1 cards, either. A Claudell Washington with print spots for $56, a Bob Stinson for $28, Jesus Alou $26, Dave Duncan $27.66, and numerous others in the $10-$18 range, mostly to a couple different people at the top end. I bottom-fed with $7 max bids, and got a couple percentage points closer, but it should be very interesting in coming months as the top few collectors close in on 100%. Makes you wonder what cards like Heideman, Marty Perez, or McEnaney (POP 1-2 8s, none higher) would go for. Meanwhile common and even HOF 9s ($85 for a Fisk) languish without bids or a lot lower than you'd expect.

mcastaldi

Helionaut> Actually, if you look at the top three sets on the registry, those collectors have relied primarily on their own submissions or private sale/trades for some time now. If you look at the auctions these collectors have actually won, they generally aren't the ones paying these prices. Typically it's been a different group that's been paying silly money from time to time. I did, however, pick up the Alou you mentioned.

If you're interested, e-mail me (or IM me on AIM) and I'll see what duplicates I have available. I'd also be glad to discuss some of the dynamics of the 1975 population.

Mike

helionaut

I understand the dynamics fine, but the prices realized were higher than ever for some of the commons, at least in the 8 months I've been watching. There have been a couple auctions that I remember where low pop commons ended notably high, up into the $30 range, but this latest batch was one of the largest and, after some fairly soft pricing all summer, it ended up selling at unexpected levels. I've been wondering if the forces that drive $1000 commons from late 50s sets would reach the 70s, and it looks like they might. Not at the same level, surely, but could an auction for a common-player 1975 8 end in 3 digits in the future? A week ago I'd have said never, but now I'd have to think it probable. As I've been assembling the set, I figured there would be 4 $100 cards to get, Brett, Yount, Ryan and Aaron 660. Now, who knows? I guess $25 or so isn't so bad, as I can recall seeing only one other Alou, and I myself paid a $27 BIN price for a Dusty Baker way back when I started (it was a POP 1 at the time, and there still are no 9s, IIRC), so it's not like there's no precedent. But however they go about acquiring the bulk of the set, the people that want those tough singles bad enough are apparently prepared to go much higher than I thought until now.

mcastaldi

Helionaut> Actually, the only cards in my 75 set that I've paid more than $100 for are the Ryan and the Yount. The Brett I found raw for $85 and submitted myself. The Aaron I got in trade for cards I'd submitted myself. And while I paid more than $100 for my Ryan, in the last two weeks I've auctioned two PSA8 (solid 8s) Ryans - one went for around $63 and the other for $80. So that's readily available for under $100 if you look.

The market for 75s is in the low-pop stuff. If you auction mid-to-high pop stuff, they're only going to go for the grading fees or less. As you get into the tougher cards, you'll start seeing higher dollars paid for some of them. Yet, I've seen others go for marginal money. It just depends on who's watching them and when.

I do have some duplicate PSA8s if you're interested. I'd also like to discuss some of the cards you mentioned as tough.

Mike

mcastaldi

Helionaut> Here's an auction to check out -

75T Will McEnaney PSA8 NQ

Pop 1 of 2 and generally one of the toughest cards in the set. Any guesses on where it will end up?

Mike

GATOR5

Go mike go!!!!!!!!Watch your pennies as your cutting into your 82 10' budget!!!!

Matt

mcastaldi

Well. . .the McEnaney is up to $58 - with over 4 days left. . .

Mike

helionaut

That's what I'm talking about. The McEnaney, up until this week, had only 1 example graded, period. And aside from the low POP, it's a Red, and I've noticed bidding on Reds players have been pretty strong in general; I'm guessing some serious Reds fans are building high grade team sets. This should be very interesting to watch. I'm thinking, based on recent serious bidding, it will end up over $100. But I doubt the population will remain that low forever. It's population is low only because people haven't submitted it. In graded form, these are very tough, but in raw form, there must be dozens, hundreds of possible 8s out there. Possibly auctions like this will drive these cards out of the woodwork.

BTW, I'm the one who won your $63 Ryan. That was an unusually low price. There was an auction for the same card running at the same time that ended much higher. But in looking at a set, I would naturally look at what I'd expect to pay for key cards and Ryans have been running in the $90-110 range for some time, so I take that into account. I was lucky to get it low, but I'm still expecting to pay well over $100 for a nice Brett (there are no nice raw ones around here that I know of, and the few stores that carry vintage cards are all very picked over) and all Aaron 660s have been going for over $100 for some time. In a year or so, when I think I'll be near done, I'm hoping the populations will increase for all tough cards, and I won't have to convince myself that $50 is an acceptable price for an 8.

mcastaldi

helionaut> You are correct, there was only one McEnaney for a long time. I recently submitted the second PSA8 of this card. It's on its way back to me from PSA and will go into my set. I submitted two of them and they were "twins". One of them must have had a small surface wrinke since it came out as a PSA6. As with all the cards in the 75 set, there are indeed tons of McEnaneys out there. However, most of them have L/R centering somewhere around 90/10. In the 18 months I've spent on the 75 set, these are the only two McEnaneys I've found worth submitting. While I will agree that there are almost certainly more PSA8-quality raw examples out there, in comparrison to the other cards in the set there are likely to be fewer high-quality McEnaneys (and others) than the rest. That's the nature of scarcity and time will tell us which cards will be truly scarce in this set.

What I think is interesting is that the bidding sometimes will even be very high on cards having pops of 7 or more. . .cards like the Brock HL, Marshall HL, Bob Tolan (#402), and Cliff Johnson (#143) all seem to carry premiums beyond their population numbers. It was sort of odd. . .right around National it seemed someone submitted multiple examples of many cards that had low pops at the time. The resulting increases weren't major (1 to 3 additional 8s usually) but were enough to blow the myth of that particular card being "super-tough". We'll have to wait and see how many cards prove over time to be that tough.

As for the key cards in the set, finding them raw to submit yourself is tough but not impossible. At least right now, if you pick up a PSA8 Brett it's probably going to be in the $160-$215 range. And you're probably not going to touch a PSA8 Aaron for less than $115 or $120. I did see an Aaron at National for $95, but felt it was low-end for the grade so I passed. I ended up getting my PSA8 Aaron (660) from the same guy to whom I traded my PSA9 Aaron, tho in a different deal. Of the key cards, one of the tougher ones for me to find is the Gibson (150). All of the PSA8s I've seen are either too dark, have serious roller marks, or are too out-of-focus.

Mike