What coins will be half price a year from now?

braddick

About eight months ago I predicted the price of Kennedies would drop as the thin market for them in top grade had been saturated. The Collectors wanting them in MS66+67 had been satisfied with the then current supply.
Now, they can be purchased for much less.
For example, I just picked up a PCGS MS66 1968-D for about $22.00. Even a thougher MS66 1988-D was less than $20.00. Both of these were closed auctions on eBay yesterday.
These coins were twice that (and some were even multiples of that) just last winter, as mentioned.

Even though I did my homework on the series, I could just as easily have been wrong.

What is your prediction, based on your experience, of coins that will be half price within the next year?

FrattLaw

With my luck, everything that I just recently purchased!

Michael

MW Fattorosi Collection

DesertLizard

Any modern slabbed as deep cameo!

State quarters!!!!!!

Viper

What coins will be half price a year from now?

The registry coins that were run up by people who felt they had to have them.

BSqr

DesertLizard,

I hope you are wrong about moderns (at least commens) since I've been building a nice collection this year. I do have one thing going for me I guess, most of mine are gold so at least I'll have melt value.

toothpuller

As our economy seems to be heading more and more like Japan into a deflationary period, I would expect almost all commodities, financial assets, etc. including rare and semi-rare coins to be less pricy in the years ahead possibly even much lower valued in ten years. Which will do worst? Don't know. Probably those that can't be liquidated at any where near cost, like the low-POP high-priced Registry coins, will suffer the most.

nwcs

Many moderns will go down in price. Some dramatically. Especially as supply will eventually far exceed demand. But I think it will be situation normal for most of the coins that have held up for all these years.

DHeath

All of them. I'm not a negative guy, but the woes of the economy aren't over, and the next 24 mos will be long ones. I think soon enough, collectibles will come under pressure (except gold). I hope I'm wrong, but in case I'm not, save some cash . It should be a buyers market. As for buying high priced pop-tops, speculators will abate in all series except truly rare classics. IMO

Higashiyama

I tend to agree with tootpuller, there is a real risk of global deflation, and in such an environment, we could see most coin prices drop. I'll have lost a fair amount of money on my recent purchases, but on balance will be happy to add to my collection at lower prices.

With respect to the biggest dips, any condition rarity that satsifies the following criteria is likely to drop in price:

(a) Huge increment in price for one step in grade, and

(b) The increase in numerical grade has only moderate bearing on the aesthetics of the coin.

Coin Finder

With this economy, any US coin minted for circulation this year!!



Tbig

cladking

Modern coins continue to be graded because some people are interested in them.
Because of this the populations of some coins in some grades have grown to ex-
ceed the still anemic demand. When this occurs the price has to drop. But two
important facts remain: There are hundreds of thousands of people branching out
of states quarters into other coins. The largest beneficiaries of this are the coins
in circulation. Sets of these coins are being assembled at staggering rates and some
of these collectors will eventually want to upgrade their sets. The other fact is that
many of the moderns are very difficult to find in uncirculated condition, and some are
tough in nice choice condition. None of the current trends have changed directions
or played out. If the economy slows sufficiently it may well slow the development
of this market but it will likely broaden and strenghten the base as layed off workers
find they have extra time to pursue an inexpensive hobby.

EVillageProwler

There are hundreds of thousands of people branching out

??? That many? I am ready to believe that the SQ program has helped renew interest in our hobby, but by *that* much?

EVP

Russ

Let's see. There seems to be a consensus in this thread that all is doom and gloom; that the economy will stay tanked; that there is no hope; that all is dire and hell is right around the corner.

Time to buy!

Russ, NCNE

cladking

It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people collecting coins from circulation
because the folder and album manufacterors consider production numbers a trade se-
cret. Most book stores now carry these folders, and there are now three major pub-
lishers of them. For many years there was only Whitman and the product obviously
didn't sell well and was available only in coin shops. Now you can actually see the
various stocks of these shrinking and being periodically replenished. The implication
is that very large numbers of them are being sold nation-wide. Most of the evidence
of this collecting is anecdotal, but there is another factor which leads me to believe
that these folders are actually being used; that is that the attrition rates on the nicer
coins in circulation now greatly exceeds the attrition rates for the more typical coins.
This is particularly pronounced in the older clads in high grade and in all the tougher
date coins. There is no other possible explanation for this to occur other than the actions
of collectors. And to affect the millions of coins involved there have to be large numbers
of people involved.




spelling

au58

Russ is right. It is a good time to buy. It is nearly always a good time to buy something. The real question is – what to buy?

Here’s my answer: First of all, buy what you like. Buy the stuff that you are interested in and that holds special value for you. But be sure that you know why it holds value to you, not that it holds value to someone else!! Personally, I don’t like moderns. More importantly, I don’t like the way they are hyped. The reason they are hyped is because there are enough around that when they are hyped, dealers can then find enough to resell and make money.

If you can walk into any coin show feeling fairly certain that you will find what you are looking for, or if you can find what you are looking for every time you sign on to ebay, then chances are that what you are looking for a) has been hyped, b) is being hyped or c) has the potential for being hyped.

All of the above has happened with slabbed Morgans, slabbed gold, Commems, ultra grades, etc. The State Quarter program is great for the hobby, but I believe that there are thousands of every issue in MS-67 and above. How can they possibly be rare? As far as what will be worth less in a year from now, the stuff that has true value and a true collector base has significantly less potential to lose value than the stuff that can be hyped. If you go to two or three good size shows and don’t find what you are looking for, there is a good chance it is truly scarce. When you do find it, trust your instincts. I like the following and am always comfortable when I can find it: a) original, attractive type material, and b) key and semi-key dates of almost any series (pre-1932).

airplanenut

any coin AG3 or lower

dorkkarl

i don't know about half-price, but i predict that iraqi coins will be worth way less than that in about a year, if bush gets his way.

K S

Kejun99

Interesting Question Brad, All depends on what happens in the next year
! It's all speculation so I'll thro my scenerio in..::: If Saddam tosses a grenade at America BEFORE GW gets his way, IMHO you can bet your bippy that the whole Country would get behind Georgie and US Production would go thru the roof ! But that is not likely to happen..there's lots of scenerios which could determine US coin prices...
I applaud your ability to create new subject matter for the boards !
ken

lordmarcovan

<< <i>Russ is right. It is a good time to buy. It is nearly always a good time to buy something. The real question is – what to buy? >>



I agree. Every cloud has its silver (or gold, or copper) lining, for those perceptive enough to peer through the doom and gloom. The hobby ain't goin' anywhere but up. Maybe the enthusiasm over the Statehood quarter program will wane, but think of the new blood and new interest it has brought the hobby so far. Even if the market for those dries up overnight (which I very much doubt), one must admit that it has brought more good than ill. It's all good, if you hang around long enough, or if you enjoy it.

Even PO01, FR02, and "Holey" coins. Look for the market in those to rise once braddick and I have 'em all cornered and hoarded up.


Seriously, though- the real title of this thread should have been:


<< <i>What coins will double in price a year from now? >>

DesertLizard

I selected moderns as the major category to plummet based on past history and habits.

I know so many dealers who have BU rolls of Buffalos, Mercurys, Wash. / Stand. Lib 25c, and even early date cents. They are holding them off the market until the right moment.

Now, imagine in the current environment you have alot more dealers / speculators, much higher mintage and alot of people pulling coins out of circulation.

This all adds up to alot of inventory for sale somewhere down the road. If not for sale then for slabbing.

GaCoinGuy

As someone said..........everything in my collection!

fcloud

My guess is everything I own will be the coins to loose the most value.

That's life--but I don't care, I am having fun, and that is more important to me.

Tony

CLASSICS

when economic times get tough the first things to decline are collectibles, be they coins, baseball cards, collector cars, etc. etc. funds go to inportant items that are necessary. hobbies will always be with us, however, the monetary value, depending on how hard thoses times are, will dictate the true value if needed to sell. commom coins, by their very definition, are just that, commom. and will never become rare. rare coins are just that, rare, however finding a buyer during declining markets, could become even rarer. also have you noticed , even david hall has said...well during the market highs these coins use to sell at 10,000 dollars, now you can own one of these for half of their market highs. and yes, that is true, many of those rare coins can be bought at half of what they use to sell for. will we ever see those highs again? dont hold your breath. if you like something and can afford it buy it, but also be prepared to owned it and hope you dont need to sell. and maybe take a loss. many colletors today dont remember the bu roll boom and bust, or the proof set craze. or the original silver dollar bags that where and still are being poured into the market place. doom and gloom, no, one just needs to know the facts, and the realities, of what has happened in the past, and how some markets work when times become uneasy now and in the foreseeable future.

DCAMFranklin

Don't forget the Accented Hair variety Kennedy. In May of '99 there were 53 AH Kennedy Cameo coins graded PCGS PR-65 Cam, or higher. Three years and a few months later, and we now have 136 PCGS AH Kennedy Cameo coins graded PR-65 Cameo, or higher. Back in May of 1999, the PCGS DCAM AH Kennedy Population, in PR-65 DCAM or higher, was 12. Today, that Population is at 41. There are 429 Accented Hair Kennedy coins graded PR-65 or higher. Going down faster than the NASDAQ!

braddick

Well, unless there were only fifty or so collectors wanting these back in May of 1999 and now 500+ collectors wanting them. (Which seems reasonable to me.)

It's not just about supply. It's also about demand.

DCAMFranklin

Just some additional history about recent history of the DCAM Kennedy.

Kennedy thread

Just not enough demand to purchase the huge increases in Population due to ever increasing submissions.

dbldie55

<< <i>Well, unless there were only fifty or so collectors wanting these back in May of 1999 and now 500+ collectors wanting them. (Which seems reasonable to me.)

It's not just about supply. It's also about demand. >>



Guess that means there is no demand for the coins you started this thread with.

braddick

I agree, in general terms. The Proof69DCAM Kennedies are being "made" faster than the collector demand requires.
Specifically though, the 1964 AH PRCAM (DCAM) Kennedy has not.

relayer

DCAMFranklin-

In May of '99 there were 53 AH Kennedy Cameo coins graded PCGS PR-65 Cam, or higher. Three years and a few months later, and we now have 136 PCGS AH Kennedy Cameo coins graded PR-65 Cameo, or higher. Back in May of 1999, the PCGS DCAM AH Kennedy Population, in PR-65 DCAM or higher, was 12. Today, that Population is at 41. There are 429 Accented Hair Kennedy coins graded PR-65 or higher.

I think the rise in population of the AH Kennedys wouldn't be so dramatic if you took Russ's submissions out of the picture.

DCAMFranklin

And you point is..........???? There probably is not a series in the coin business where the same can be said of some collector. Regardless of who makes the coins, if there are not sufficient buyers to purchase and then keep the coin, then the value will fall. Braddick was simply asking which coins will fall 50% in value over the next year. Whether it was Russ, or any other collector/dealer, driving the Population numbers up, if there is insufficient demand, then the price falls. I simply wanted to substantiate my reasoning behind my choice of coins. A LOT of newbies don't have a real "history" for the Population numbers. I gave them a little help.

DHeath

In truth, I think there are only 3 Dcam AH's, and they've been resubmitted 12 times.


BTW - DcamFranklin, can I consider the following your investment strategy?

Today, the ICG coins are selling at a price equal to, or slightly greater, than that of the NGC holder. The discount to the PCGS holder has narrowed substantially