Rarity does not equal price or weight in Lincoln registry
clackamas
Posts: 5,615 ✭
For the sake of argument I will exclude post 34 lincolns. The rarest coins are not the ones neccsarily with the lowest mintages or the highest set weights, yet the low mintage coins still have significant price premiums despite not being rare because so many examples are known. For the Lincoln series the 8 rarest coins in total Red examples graded are:
17-S - 64 (13 in 65 and 1 in 66) 64RD sold for $850 - Bargain
15-S - 73 (26 in 65 and 3 in 66) 64RD sold for $675 --- THIS WAS the bargain of the day for Lincolns - Congrats to whomever won it!
26-S - 78 (62 in 64 and 1 in 65) 3 x 64RDs sold for $3300, $3200, $2200 - What were people thinking?
18-S - 83 (56 in 64 and 14 in 65) none sold
24-S - 85 (57 in 64 and 8 in 65) 64RD sold for $900 - Bargain
20-S - 85 (61 in 64 and 8 in 65) 64RD sold for $750 - Bargain
25-S - 91 (59 in 64 and 9 in 65) 2 x 64RD sold for $975, and $1200
23-S - 95 (62 in 64 and 16 in 65) 2 x 64RD sold for $1100 and $1250
09-S VDB - 1414 (133 in 66 and 9 in 67) 66RD sold at heritage for $7000; 65RD sold for $3400; 64RD sold for $1825
14-D - 180 (45 in 65 and 3 in 66) 65RD sold for $7250; 64RD sold for $3800; 63BN sold for $1500
Based on rarity the PCGS weights are all wrong. The 10 weight coin should be the 17-S, followed by 2 8 weights in the 15-S and the 26-S (correctly weighted), the 18-S should be a 7 weight, as well as the 24-S.
Is there a logical explanation or is the market just being stupid right now and what people should be doing is selling 14-D's and buying 17-S's?
Brian
17-S - 64 (13 in 65 and 1 in 66) 64RD sold for $850 - Bargain
15-S - 73 (26 in 65 and 3 in 66) 64RD sold for $675 --- THIS WAS the bargain of the day for Lincolns - Congrats to whomever won it!
26-S - 78 (62 in 64 and 1 in 65) 3 x 64RDs sold for $3300, $3200, $2200 - What were people thinking?
18-S - 83 (56 in 64 and 14 in 65) none sold
24-S - 85 (57 in 64 and 8 in 65) 64RD sold for $900 - Bargain
20-S - 85 (61 in 64 and 8 in 65) 64RD sold for $750 - Bargain
25-S - 91 (59 in 64 and 9 in 65) 2 x 64RD sold for $975, and $1200
23-S - 95 (62 in 64 and 16 in 65) 2 x 64RD sold for $1100 and $1250
09-S VDB - 1414 (133 in 66 and 9 in 67) 66RD sold at heritage for $7000; 65RD sold for $3400; 64RD sold for $1825
14-D - 180 (45 in 65 and 3 in 66) 65RD sold for $7250; 64RD sold for $3800; 63BN sold for $1500
Based on rarity the PCGS weights are all wrong. The 10 weight coin should be the 17-S, followed by 2 8 weights in the 15-S and the 26-S (correctly weighted), the 18-S should be a 7 weight, as well as the 24-S.
Is there a logical explanation or is the market just being stupid right now and what people should be doing is selling 14-D's and buying 17-S's?
Brian
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Comments
10 points - 14d
8 - 26s
8 - 09svdb
8 - 14s
7 - 11s
7 - 20s
7 - 24d
7 - 25s
This is what it is currently. These are all tough coins. Pretty much all the S mints from 09s to 27s (excluding the 10s, 19s) are all tied for 6's in the weighting schema. Again all tough coins. I can agree that it looked like the 17s was a real steal but I must say, what I have discovered about lincoln collectors is that some may buy the holder, but they are smart enough not to over pay for poor examples. Please help me understand you thoughts on this post.
Weightings, IMO, should be based on the rarity of a coin and not its fame. Here is a weighting scheme that makes more sense. Note only 3 coins stay in the grouping.
10 points - 17S
8 - 26S
8 - 15S
8 - 18S
7 - 24S
7 - 20s
7 - 25S
7 - 23S
>These are all tough coins.
I disagree, because tough to me implies its hard to find. If you mean tough because its expensive then yes but finding an 09S VDB in 66RD is a cake walk.
>Was this from a recent auction?
Yes these prices were from the heritage Long Beach sale on Thursday.
depending on the coin something like the 15 S may be more like PQ63 money or 64 RB money.
Rich
17-S $750+15%=$977.50
20-S $750+15%=$862.50
25-S $975+15%=$1,495.00
Lot 5588 1926 S PCGS RD 64 4370 w/ juice
Lot 5589 1926 S PCGS RD 64 2530 w/ juice
(I would call it RB and the bid I feel is accurate {PQ rb64})
Lot 5590 not sold 1926 S PCGS 1926 S RD
(You can Buy it now for 3910 including juice) on the darker side of RD
That 1915 S is a NGC and a great looking coin, how I missed it I don't know but I would have bid on it easily. A very nice coin.
Rich
>Brian, the prices you listed are WITHOUT the 15% juice
>17-S $750+15%=$977.50
>20-S $750+15%=$862.50
>25-S $975+15%=$1,495.00
I know you work in finace and all but $975 * 1.15 does not equal $1495. It should be $1125.
The buyers premium is actually 20% on this auction
It is 15% if you placed the bids through heritage
oops, I guess I did the math wrong on that one.
i AM AT THE "sHOWDOWN" reading the posts .......and wondering what you guys are talking about.......Did anone see these coins?
nONE OF THESE COINS WERE VERY NICE.........The quality was fair at best......and so were the prices.........Ley's talk about an ugly
1944 d/s in ms 66 rd at almost $10,000 !!!! a 1929 d in ms 65 rd at almost $700 and a gorgeous 1955 s in ms 68 at almost $8,000
Stewart
No fair comparing 64-66 graded 1917-S numbers with 63-65 graded 1926-S numbers...skews everything. The comparison should be:
1917-S MS65RD (13) MS66RD (1)
1926-S MS65RD (1) MS66RD (0)
Now which one looks harder to find?
Also...the high price of a 1909-S VDB or a 1914-D in ANY grade makes it unfair to compare them in high (64+) grade only to the 1917-S.
Stewart also makes a great point about the quality of the coins you mention...if every 17-S and every 23-S were the same then one could compare prices on two examples sold at the same time straight up...but that is not the reality of early Lincolns. I would love to buy HIGH QUALITY MS64RD examples of the 24-S for $900 and the 26-S for $2200 but that isn't going to happen unless the market for these takes a serious breather. I saw those three 26-S coins and two of them are coins I would not want in my collection...if they had been given to me I would have sold them to buy nice Lincolns.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
26-S - 78 (62 in 64 and 1 in 65) 3 x 64RDs sold for $3300, $3200, $2200
24-S - 85 (57 in 64 and 8 in 65) 64RD sold for $900
In this example there were 3 64RD 26-S's sold of the 62 known and 1 64RD of the 24-S's of the only 57 known. Is this a fair comparison from apples to apples? Yet the 26-S's bring 2X to 3X the price even though in 64RD are more common.
Certainly I am leaving out what these individual coins looked like but was the 17-s soo bad that with only 14 coins graded higher it sells for less than 1/3 of what you say are LQ 26-S's, or is the market just not seeing where the true value is? This is my point.
I think the weights are reflective of the rarity of the year/mm of the coin.
You are talking about condition census. The upper grades forming condition census are going to be hot because the well heeled OCD collector has to have that coin and won't think twice about an extra $1,000 to acquire a piece s/he needs. If I've got a pop 1 condition census rarity in a common date/mm series, how are you going to weight my coin? You can't unless you turn the weight system into a three dimentional one. For you proof nuts (like me) take the 1912 Lincoln Proof. Need one? You can get one anytime at a reasonable price. Need one in PR65Red? Get ready to shell out the big bucks, plus an arm or leg if you find one. I can't think what might happen if a 66red showed up. So I've got this monster 1912 65red in my set, and the weight stinks. However, all others seeking top sets are going to have fork out the same IF THEY CAN FIND ONE, so in the upper realm of collector, we are all still on even footing. If you have an average set of at 63, and spike it with a 09VDB proof in 66red, you just busted the curve, and you are in no man's land. That coin alone will not get you to the top level alonde, but you have moved out side you set pattern.
Here's another example of fluxuations of a hot coin. I have two 36BRPF's in 66red. There are only 20 in the pop chart. I bought one about eight months ago for $5,000, and people thought I was NUTS. One sold at auction this week which was W-w-weak, for about $8,000.
My point? It's impossible to calculate a weight in a two demintional world.
I don't know where this gibberish came from, but I'll try to stiffle it in the future.
Advice? Buy the coins you want, and pay what you think they are worth. Forget about the plastic and the games.
OK I give up, prehaps I am missing something.
Now if PCGS created a "RED" Registry Set, they should change the weights to the ones that you have proposed.
Does this make any more sense? I'll admit that I went off the deep end a little on that last post.