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Low Population 9 and 8 Philosophy
ChasMan
Posts: 26
I am new to the message boards and new to collecting a PSA graded set (1970 Topps Baseball). My goal is to collect the best set I can in either PSA 8 or 9 that I can (can I ever hope to have just one 10?).
My question to the regular corps that has more knowledge and experience is this: When there are certain cards that have either a very low population 9 (say 5 or less) or none at all, and a very low 8 population (also 5 or less), is it better to look to snap up the 8s or wait it out to see if more 9s will appear in the future. My concern is that there may never be any more 9s (given competition even if a few more do appear) and that other collectors may feel the same that I do and settle for those 8s, if available, to complete their set collection as they near completion of the set.
The reason I ask is that I seem to get the feeling from board discussions, that many believe that there are a fairly significant amount (althoguh no one is able to predict) of ungraded cards that could receive high grades, when submitted, if they do indeed exist in someones hoard.
I appreciate your thoughts and feelings on this topic. I have not seen this question asked before. I apologize if it has.
Thanks
Chuck
My question to the regular corps that has more knowledge and experience is this: When there are certain cards that have either a very low population 9 (say 5 or less) or none at all, and a very low 8 population (also 5 or less), is it better to look to snap up the 8s or wait it out to see if more 9s will appear in the future. My concern is that there may never be any more 9s (given competition even if a few more do appear) and that other collectors may feel the same that I do and settle for those 8s, if available, to complete their set collection as they near completion of the set.
The reason I ask is that I seem to get the feeling from board discussions, that many believe that there are a fairly significant amount (althoguh no one is able to predict) of ungraded cards that could receive high grades, when submitted, if they do indeed exist in someones hoard.
I appreciate your thoughts and feelings on this topic. I have not seen this question asked before. I apologize if it has.
Thanks
Chuck
Chuck
0
Comments
Welcome! Very good question. Is there any particular year or set because the answer would probably vary depending on what you're collecting.
Wayne
Thanks for the welcome. Yes, to answer yoru question, a 1970 Topps Baseball set. My favorite year! The year I staretd to collect cards as a kid.
Chuck
Rumor has it that collecting the 1970 set is a real bloodbath. (just kidding guys)
Good luck with your collection.
Wayne
A) Wait until the current two warriors obtain a given card and then buy them for lower prices
C) Locate and submit multiple quantities of each card in raw form and hope to get 9's through your own submissions while being prepared to sell off the 8's at or below cost (in many cases).
I've bought some vending runs in 1970 and have gotten very few 9's (four or five - See set registry under 'John Constantino'). With the grey borders, 1970 is one of the more challenging sets to get 9's in.
I don't want to discourage you but I'd rather lay out the reality up front instead of having you start the set only to throw in the towel after pouring lots of money into the set. My suggestion would be to go for 8's and pick up higher population 9's whenever they can be had at a reasonable price.
But whatever you decide, the minimum grade should be based on what you would be satisfied with based on your financial resources.
Good luck!
The best advice I can give outside of what the others have said. . .is for any 1970s set, don't bid as if there won't be any more of any card. The more time goes by and the deeper I get into my sets (75, 78, etc), the more I am amazed at the volume of submittable 1970s cards that are available. Ultimately you should have enough of an understanding of the issue to understand which cards are tough to get and then bid accordingly.
I'd say not to get too caught up in "low pop". As Wayne mentioned, that status can vanish with one submission.
Mike
Welcome to the boards!
I don't think that I'm saying anything that Wayne, Gemint and Mike haven't already covered because they're correct. My advice is to do some research...
Figure out what the prices are for 1970 PSA 9's at the top of the scale.
Figure out where PSA 9's sell for when only one of the major players bids.
Figure out where the price for PSA 9's is when the heaviest bidders have the card.
Once you know that - you can determine where your comfort level is for how much you want to pay and then only bid that much. You'll win some and you'll lose some but you'll save a bundle as time goes on.
And as for whether to pick up 8's or just 9's. I would say go for the 8's while they're cheap. Keep an eye out for low pop 8's especially (bid higher but not outrageously higher) because even if a 9 does get graded - it may never make it to eBay. And with the volume of raw material still out there, even the low Pop 8's will get into the dozens eventually.
Good luck!
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Not sure about 1970 but I know that the 1972 high series are some of the higher popped cards from the set. There may come a time down the road where they will be tougher but I think that there are just so darned many that those pops will continue to go up as well for the next few years.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
there is a great deal of wisdom here. tons of great advice. read it all carefully, these guys know what they are talking about. set your comfort level (financially) and let the cards come to you. there is no rush and there are plenty of cards out there. the last series will give you the most 9's for the least dollar. watch the bidding, you will be able to pick up trends. most of all don't get discouraged.
Best of luck with 1970.
Klinger