Production Runs

helionaut

I was looking at Pop Reports again tonight to see if starting a third graded set was feasible (it's not looking good). My thoughts wandered and I found myself calculating how many cards might be graded. In a rare feat of post-academic scholarship, I found two corroborative sources and present them here, with attributions and everything.

"...the baseball cards of the nation. In excess of two hundred and fifty million of them last year, worth a cool $8 million retail. Plus a like number of football, basketball, and hockey cards."
--The Great American Baseball Card Flipping, Trading and Bubble Gum Book by Brendan Boyd and Fred Harris (1973).

"Collecting mushroomed into a major industry with the nostalgia wave of the '70s. Adults became so adept at the child's game of buying, selling, and trading cards that they established full-time businesses. Publications sprang up strictly to serve this new industry...By the '70s, the Topps name had become synonymous with baseball cards. The company sold more than 250 million each year and gave awards to outstanding players...."
--The Baseball Catalog by Dan Schlossberg (1980).

While I think the second quote may have been derived from the first, it might also have come from Topps' stock prospectus (they IPO'd in 1972 at $17.50 per share).

They don't go into the specifics about production runs that a modern collector would like to hear, so the amount made of each series is a total mystery. But I do find it interesting to think that from 1974 on, we may be able to take an educated guess at the numbers. There might be 378,787 Dave Winfield or George Brett rookies (and a like number of all other cards). As of today, there are only 2372 Brett RCs graded, less than 3/10ths of one percent. I think this gives hope to people who think that the supply of ungraded vintage stuff will run out soon.

FB

Helionaut,

Did Topps go public twice? If not, then I believe that they did it in 1987 or 1988 instead of 72. I remember receiving the call from Goldman Sachs offering to sell me stock at the IPO because I had an account with them.

You want to know fear???? Imagine that you have 2200 cases of wax and vending in your basement and the broker on the phone tells you that "because Topps can sell everything they make, they're going to use this IPO money to produce 10 TIMES the amount of cards that they do today!!!".

Before that I was selling 10 - 20 cases per week. After that phone call - I started blowing things out at between 100 and 150 per week - before the bottom dropped out.

But yes... Topps could supply cards for the spokes of every bike ever made between 72 and now, from here to Beijing with the 72 production run alone... Most cards from the 60's on are NOT rare.

CDC4

I totally agree. The populations from the late 60's through the the 70's are not rare. The cards are readily available, however are the cards readily available in NrMt-Mt condition and better?
I doubt that most are available in that condition especially cards from the 1962, 1963, and 1971 Topps sets where the borders are very sensitive.

Fabfrank

CDC4- Which brings us to the bottom line of this website and 1/2 the threads posted. Pop. runs may be high, but it's condition that separates the "wheat from the chafe"

CDC4

Fabfrank,

Absolutely agree with you. However I firmly believe that there are still plenty of cards from 1968 to the present that are still in solid "8" condition which are not graded yet. So I do not see a point for paying an arm and a leg for a "tough" card from 1968 and up.

Carlo

Fabfrank

CDC4- That's the great part about this forum. With all the knowledgeable collectors here, you will quickly learn what's rare and what's not. Keep reading and keep posting.

CDC4

Fabfrank,

Are your sets listed on the registry? My current project is the 1957 Topps set, currently 7th overall.
Maybe we can help eachother

Thanks,
Carlo

Fabfrank

I haven't listed it yet, but I'm working on the 71 Baseball and a run of modern football (89 Score, and 93 to present SP and SP Authentic football sets)

toppsgun

I read somewhere about 6-8 years ago that a realistic estimate of the numbers of cards that survived the 50's and early 60's is about 1.5% to 2.5% of the cards originally produced.

Let's assume, for purposes of discussion, that is true.

250,000,000 from 1965 Topps (for example), times 1.5% is 3,750,000 cards. Divide that by 598 cards in the set, for an average of 6,271 of each card that has survived until today. Over 200 of the Mickey Mantle, card #350, have graded 8. Notwithstanding the number of crack outs/resubmits, but roughly offsetting those with the number of 9's, 10's, 5's, 6's and 7's, there may exist over 6,000 copies of Mantle that have never darkened the doors at PSA.

If only 1% of those 6,000 remaining examples ever make it to PSA, could another 10, 20, 30 of them grade 8? I think so.

As I've maintained in other threads on this board, there is plenty of ungraded raw material out there, especially commons that have yet to be graded. People who pay 5x, 10x and more of SMR for a low pop common will NEVER get their money out at anywhere near what they've got in it.

Although I don't remember the source for the 1.5-2.5% estimate, I do recall there was an equally astonishing estimate in the researcher's work. Beginning in 1968, there was an EXPONENTIAL increase in the number of cards originally produced. That is why most vintage collectors consider 1967 to be the end of the line. Anything 1968 and newer is extremely plentiful.

theBobs

<< <i>People who pay 5x, 10x and more of SMR for a low pop common will NEVER get their money out at anywhere near what they've got in it. >>

Absolute statements are dangerous, and generally proved wrong. While I agree with the direction of this statement, I know of at least one example of a low pop card being purchased at 5x SMR then sold for an even higher multiple. So, to say the word "never" is not accurate...

toppsgun

Bobs, ever heard the phrase, "The exception proves the rule."

You've just validated my point. For every example you come up with, I can probably find 10. If you try this in practice (buying for 5x trying to sell higher), you'll go broke and become the greater fool.

Tulips, anyone? How 'bout dot.coms?

theBobs

nevermind