A look at the Sept. 1990 Population Report

Cocoinut

I was going through this report to see how trends have changed over the past 12 years. Some interesting statistics:

Number of U.S. coins graded: 1,938,187
Total MS67 5,026
Total MS68 189
Total MS69 10
Total MS70 0

Total PR67 5,395
Total PR68 578
Total PR69 35
Total PR70 0

Modern clad coinage is currently popular, but how many clad proofs had been slabbed 12 years ago? Remember, this was before CAM and DCAM designations were used:

Total proof & SMS cents 1965-1990: 34 coins, only 1 PR68, and none higher!
Total proof & SMS nickels 1965-1990: 33 coins, 12 of which were the '71 No S. Eleven dates had a pop. of zero. Only 1 PR69
Total proof & SMS dimes 1965-1990: 52 coins, 28 of which were No S. Highest grades were 10 PR69's
Total proof & SMS quarters 1965-1990: 52 coins. 16 were PR69, none higher.
Total proof halves 1971-1990: 151 coins. 13 dates had pops of less than 10 pieces

The times they are a changin'

Jim

michael

wow that is a super great post!!!!! thanks i would love to have a pop book like that from early 90's and comapir to a pop book today over some evening and see waht some rare coins are not compaired to 12 years ago!

also it would be really interesting to see coins that were slabbed the first three to 4 years at pcgs and how many of these coins have not really changed that much in the pops till now!!!!!!!!!!!

very interesting it would make a great book for someone to do compair many different coins in pops maybe 1992 to 2002 ten years and after 5 years of pcgs operartinos by 1992 till now to see the differences and explosion in some and maybe a few whereas the pops really didn ot change!

and then estimate how many pops are way overstated like for me the ms 64 flyers as from 64 to 65 the prices really triple and how you never see many ms64 flyers even though the pops are huge so to speak well for me and i have talked to many other dealers and they agree the pops for the ms 64 flyers are way overstated by 50%!!!!!!!!!

and i am sure there are other examples like earley commems and i am sure MR. COMMEMRATIVE would agree with me!!!!!!! i bet many of the grades where there was a huge jump in price like back in the early 90's most early commems pops are overstated by 25 to 35% or more!!

the isabella in 64 and the sesqui in 64 comes to mind with many others

hey great post you can really look at it many different ways

i love it here!!!!!!!!

i want a 1992 pop book from pcgs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! welli9 can dream cant i!!!!!!!!!


sincerely michael

roadrunner

Michael, that is a very good suggestion and one that I have tried to follow since the early 90's. Many of my buying decisions are based on changing pops. The ones that are barely changing are the ones to buy. Ones that are increasing 10-20% a year or more, well those have more risk potential. The other side of this coin is the pops that aren't changing are the coins that almost never show up for sale to the average collector. Those often get scarffed up in a heartbeat and put away by knowing dealers or to their best customers. One of my favorites is the PCGS MS65 1854-55 arrows quarter. The type coin pop hasn't changed in 65 grade for at least 3 years and probably 5 or more. In fact you can look at all the grades from 63 on up and this type coin has been in a time warp. There are many other examples. But....try to find one. Unfortunately most of the stagnant pops on type coins belong to PCGS. NGC let their guard down a bit and allowed the pops to go up on quite a few types. There are still some (like NGC MS 66 trade dollars) but it takes more searching to find them. This method is not foolproof but it sure beats "hoping" that a pop went up only because of resubmissions.

roadrunner

Cocoinut

Roadrunner,
I checked out the 1854-55 w/Arrows quarter. In the August 1988 report, the pop in 65 was 4, with one better (a 66). In September 1990 it was up to 10, with still just one better. The March 1993 report seems to contain erroneous data, showing the 65 pop at 23, with one better. Jump to Feb. 1995; it's back down to 11, with 4 better. Forward to Oct. 1999: there were 14 in 65, 7 in 66, 5 in 67. Today, they're at 15 in 65, 8 in 66, and 3 in 67 (what happened to the other 2 67's from 1999?).

Michael,
Wish I had a 1992 pop report. I probably threw out any that I had, but I still have a couple from 1993. I made some comparisons of the reports for certain series back in the early '90's, and probably still have the Lotus files somewhere. I think they can be converted to Excel. Perhaps I'll put together some kind of comparison by type for early next year, using 1988, 1993, 1996, 1999, and 2003 reports.

Jim