8's vs. 9's

Wayne8348

There has been a number of very good threads the last week or so concerning the current value of cards. It seems to me that we really aren't seeing the market decline in cards as much as the gap widening between the 8's and 9's. Since I know the 65's better than other sets I'll use it as my example. About 2 years ago the 9's went for approximately double what an 8 would sell for. The 8's were mostly $18 to $30 for a common and the 9's were about $60. Now you see many 8's selling for $12 - $16 (not counting the low pop's) and the 9's going for $75 (for a high pop) to $415 for a low pop common on the superior auction last week. But many 9's are regularly selling over $100.

I'm not sure that the smr is quite up to date with what is happening in the market. I believe that the set registry has created a huge competition to have the "best" set thus driving the prices of the high grade cards. If you want to compete for the best set of a given year you almost have to throw the smr out the window and be willing to pay the $150 to $400 for the lower pop 9's or you probably won't be able to compete. Once again I'm using numbers relative to the 1965 set but the same thought should apply to many of the years - especially in the 60's. I see this gap in prices between 8's and 9's getting wider and wider over time as more people compete to have the best. I just wonder what everyone elses thoughts are. I see more of a shift in the market towards 9's as opposed to the market as a whole declining.

wayne

brucemo

The trend toward large premiums for high condition has been a feature of the collectibles market for at least 25 years.

Meaning, that if you are going to "invest" in collectibles, get the best stuff that you can get.

bruce

theBobs

<< <i>I'm not sure that the smr is quite up to date with what is happening in the market. >>

Blasphemy!

<< <i>Now you see many 8's selling for $12 - $16 (not counting the low pop's) and the 9's going for $75 (for a high pop) to $415 for a low pop common on the superior auction last week. >>

Good thing we picked up the 10s when we did. Out of 32,000 cards graded, only 21 have returned a 10. I think the prices realized in the spring on the 10s will prove to be great entry points provided the ratio of 10s awarded in 1965 remains the same.

Wayne8348

theBobs,

Of course the accuracy of the smr depends entirely on which side of the fence your sitting on.

Wayne

zardoz51

SMR inaccurate?

I'm going to get a bar of soap and wash someone's mouth out.

As a favor to all concerned, I will pay FULL SMR for any common 1971 PSA 9. Uh huh, you read it here! No negotiation, and no need to thank me.

gtbeaker

Wayne- I agree completely! It's not just the '65 set that this applies to, since I've bought a few low pop 75's and paid nearly $100 for some of the 1/1's. I also agree that the SMR is not anywhere near being accurate, especially when it comes to some of the low pop commons. I guess they figure eventually they won't be all that rare with people realizing the price they can get for some of these cards, and then submitting raw cards. Just my $.02.

LloydsBaseballCards

<< <i>Meaning, that if you are going to "invest" in collectibles, get the best stuff that you can get. >>


Oh so true Bruce!!

waitilltheytrytosell

Price guides are like watches. All these guides and prices flying around, all with different prices than what the last card actually sold for. A stopped watch shows the correct time twice every 24 hours. If a price guide keep real still, they might actually hit an actual price realized once in a while. Price guides are as accurate as most people's watches - except for those atomic synchronized ones. At best a guide can only show you what the last card sold for. It can't tell you what the next one will sell for. Guides are most useless to people who are actively involved in buying and selling every day. These people are the real prices. Guides are more like a souvenir book for spectators.

1420sports

Waittil ...
I agree. The SMR has never been accurate for realized prices. I am not a collector who goes after vintage 8 - 10's, and really only started focusing on certain issues in the past year.

I do have a good memory and I am an ebay addict. The SMR is usually just a good measure.

Collectors will pay a lot for certain cards, sometimes over 200% +++ of SMR. We all know that.

Mitochondria

Wayne 8348,

Those are some pretty stout figures for both low and high pop PSA 9 1965 commons. It is reminescent of some of the famous surges the 1968 set experienced in the past. Unfortunately, some of the high pop PSA 9 1968 cards are not doing too well. Is the 1965 issue plagued with known high grade vending lots sitting around? This is certainly a factor with some of the series in 1968 and 1969 alike.

Ron

RayBShotz

This is a little off topic but a really good question would be; ...at what number of graded cards would the POP report stabilize the true rarities (Low POP's)? If I am reading into this post correctly, the 1965 set has the POP represented as stabile at 32,000 cards.
I know the answer may be "it depends" on the year, but maybe some of you can shed some light on this regarding other major Topps issues (specifically 60's issues). The set registry special has increased the Population of a lot of the late 60's issues to the point where some shifts have occured that have raised POP's of previously "tough" cards and failed to raise them on others.
So the POP depth; the number of total cards graded does appear to crystalize the individual rarities as more and more cards of a specific issue are graded.
RayB69Topps

Mitochondria

RayBShotz,

That is a very important point. Often, one will characterize a certain card as "low" pop when in fact this may depend on the overall number of cards submitted. It is not customary to submit high grade cards of commons for grading and thus the overall numbers pale in comparison to "star" card submissions. Thus, a rookie card of Reggie Jackson in PSA 9 exists in a population of 12 or 13 out of 1200+ (I don't know what the latest pop report shows) submitted and is considerably rarer and a true "low" pop compared to a common card that has only 1 or 2 PSA 9 examples out of a total of 16 submitted. Nevertheless, you frequently have sellers making misleading remarks; such as, "low pop, only 1 of 6" in e-Bay descriptions. We can have theories about "commons" not existing in high grade in general, but without having actual data this position remains highly speculative. This takes on new meaning when one continues to see raw high grade vintage commons at shows every year along with greater disparity in quality control from third party graders.

Ron

Wayne8348

Mitochondria,

I'm not aware of a lot of 65 vending still left out there. I'm sure it is but I've never seen any for sale anywhere. I think that the 65's and 68's are a tough comparison because there are 7500 psa 9's from the 68 set and only 2000 from the 65 set making them much harder to come by. I think this is the main reason the prices are higher plus there is some very competitive bidding by 5 or 6 of us crazy bidders. I don't foresee the market dropping anytime soon for the 65 psa 9 low to medium pops. I only have about 100 9's and several others still need the vast majority of the set in 9's and with only 2000 of them out there it should remain very competitive.

Wayne

helionaut

From the standpoint of someone who took a long time to accept slabbing, I think I represent the majority view of the hobby. Five years ago, slabbing was only for those kooks with more money than sense. Four years ago, it was for those looking to make a killing on the first waves of mainstream acceptance (i.e. being reported in Beckett). Three years ago I figured that there was enough acceptance of slabbing that I wouldn't be compromising my principles too much to send in some cards to get graded for resale, but I still wouldn't sully my collection with them. Last year I heard about more and more people building complete graded sets. At the beginning of this year I heard about the registry and figured that there was some real legitimacy to this segment of the hobby. Thousands of dollars later, I find myself teetering on the brink of starting a third graded set, probably something from the "series era" with real weight (and expense) to it, and going into full-blown hobby dementia. I still find myself wondering why I'm paying $9 (plus $3.50 shipping) for a 1975 common card just because someone I'll never meet agrees with me that it's NM-Mt and has put it in a nice plastic case, but as my checklist fills out and long boxes fill up it becomes less of a concern.

This is all a roundabout way of saying that all this discussion just comes under the heading of a maturing market. There's no way to predict where things are going to end up, because there is no "end." Lots of good points have been raised about why pricing trends have gone the way they have, but in looking back 5 years over my own involvement with this side of the hobby, I'd think it necessary to look 5 years in the future. Taking 1975 as an example, as that's the set I'm most familiar with, look at the growth of the population over the last 6 months. I saved the Pop report from 3/8/02 as my first subscription ran out. At the time, there were just 16,427 cards graded (9573 8-9-10 NQ). There were many numbers that weren't graded at all, and many more had pop of 1-9 total graded, and only 20 10s overall. Today the total stands at 28,193 (18,600 8-9-10 NQ). There are still a handful of cards with total pops less than 6 or so, and there is one with just a single 8 graded, but I think it is now possible to actually have a complete 660 card set. Between March and today, there have been 2 70s specials, the summer convention season, and just lots more interest in general in grading any decent-looking card from about 1981 and earlier. Beckett reports on sales of common cards at previously unthinkable prices because they are 9s and 10s, and while I don't think they've mentioned the registry in the magazine yet, they do recognize PSA and SGC as forces in the hobby. Shrewd people are looking beyond the price guides to make astute guesses as to the potential value of common players in uncommon condition. Those people who need it now, or doubt there will ever be another such example, are paying the price. As this part of the hobby matures, I'm betting there will be a closing of the gap between 8s and 9s eventually, though it will always be significant. There will always be true rarities, but in the "end," there will be far fewer things that are considered rare.

Wayne8348

Helionaut,

I think that you make some great points and I know that I can't predict the future but if I was a betting man I would bet that the gap between 8's and 9's will continue to widen. If not, please don't save this message and remind how wrong I was 3 years from now.

Wayne

Fabfrank

Helionaut- The best psot I've read on this forum. Concise with good insight. Please post more often

getupkid

Helionaut....

I couldn't agree with you more.

E

theBobs

1964 PSA 10. Based on the POP report, this card is 70x as rare as a PSA 9. Based on that, the final price may be a bargain.

1954

Helinaut-
This is perhaps the best written article that I have read on this board. That is good reading and most importantly very informative. Thank you for placing a good comment out there for us to read.

1954