Set Registry and pop reports have changed card pricing forever.

Buckwheat

The most significant change that I have noticed over the past 18 months in card prices is that the discrepancy between high pop and low pop commons is getting ever larger.

It used to be that the few people who sold graded commons sent in a batch, and when they came back priced them all the same. The asumption was that the cards, with the exception of high series, etc., were all available in about the same amount. The pop report has proven that this is not the case. Some cards are maybe 50-100X more available in nm/mt or above compared to others. When all commons had a pop of 10 or less, this wasn't so clear. Whereas a year ago, a high pop 8 in the '61 set went for $20-25, and a low pop for $45-60, now high pop cards go for $12-15, and low pop ones for $100-400. Dealers like Peter Lalos with Champs and Bums ends up with all of his low pop cards scooped up, and no buyers at $30 for his high pop cards.

Are people seeing similar things in other sets? It may be that the '61 set is a little further along this path because of the large number of cards graded, about 50,000. The discrepancy has not yet shown up so much in PSA 9's, because none of them are yet "High Pop."

zardoz51

There has certainly been a correction in the pricing in many sets. The pop report has enabled us to find the true condition rarities in any specific set.

The pricing on 9's has not remained constant, but in many cases increased substantially as their pop numbers have not increased on a percentile basis to the numbers submitted.


Vintage Mint cards are tough and the demand will always be there

waitilltheytrytosell

Before PSA grading, these were the same cards that were tough to find also. Lots of people running around looking for the same cards. Experienced dealers would always put a premium on these cards because they sold time and time again. Back then, you had no way to measure how tough they were in relation to the other cards. Now with PSA, you know exactly how many they are. Now you don't have to be an "expert" to know what the tough cards are. You just look in the pop.

69topps8

That creates an interesting dilema for set builders. We're still in the infancy of the graded common era for most of the post 1950's sets. When a low pop PSA card hits the auction block, one has to decide either to pass on it, or pay multiple times SMR to acquire it. The risk if you pass on it, is that the population will remain low and the price will skyrocket. If you choose to win/purchase it, the risk is that many more high grade examples will hit the market and the price will plummet well below what you paid to be one of the first on the block to own it.

For my 1969 set, I have paid strong prices to win some tough cards but I try to avoid paying more than $20 for a common. I've spent $90 for an SGC 92 Mike Shannon and $50 for a PSA 8 Willie McCovey AS. If a PSA 8 Satriano or Santiago hits eBay, I'm not sure what it would go for, but it would probably be >$50. The question then becomes, do I bid on it or settle for a 7 and wait hoping more 8s are graded.

What approaches do you all take to building your sets?

RayBShotz

Great points 69Topps8. I was fortunate enough to recently get a 1969 Topps #626 Gene Michael in a PSA 8 NQ back in a recent submission. This is a low POP "tough" 69' not often found very nice. There are currently no PSA 9's.
I listed it on ebay last night. (Shameless plug ;-) ) One thing that furthers the difficulty factor in obtaining a card you need is when a particular player is also needed by team set or player collectors. In this case there are Yankee set collectors with their eye on this card as well as 69' set builders. It is a combustible combination when you pit Set collectors vs Team collectors for "tough" low POP cards.
This sets the table as a typical example of a card that could well go for in excess of $50 as you say. I suspected this would happen and started the bidding at $75 and have two bidders already. This card sets up the conundrum you speak of. Do you pony up the big bucks and try to win such a listed item; or keep scouring the landscape for one good enough to grade the PSA 8 you are looking for.
I personally have done both. Sometimes you are just extra motivated to pull the trigger. In fact I paid a good buck for the other example of the Michael card I own in PSA 8.
Some sets such as the 69' set show a great divide in the POP report. The high and low POP are now easily identified and it gives you the tools you need to make an informed or emotional bidding or purchase decision as you see fit.
I just think its all great fun.
RayB69Topps

Buckwheat

RayB, you make a good point. There you have the combination of low pop and high demand. This seems to work out that you have to adjust the pop report, such that a pop 5 in a sought after card is more like a pop 2 in a not so popular card. I looked at the 69 pop report, and it seems that the numbers are just beginning to spread. It looks like there are still lots of very low pop cards with less than 5 8's, many of which will increase as time goes on. The 627 card just below the Michael is pop 1 in 8, with 1 nine.

To answer the question, "should I pay up now?", I can tell you what happened on '61's, which I have said, are a little further along. It really depends on how much the card pop goes up, which of course, you can't really know. i paid $70 for a 1/1 PSA 8 about a year ago. It was the most I had ever paid for one. Now there are 13 of them, which is still low pop for this set, and it goes for about $50. All cards that are still less than pop 10 routinely go for over $100 now, and if less than pop 5, $200 -$400 is not unheard of. Cards with pop >30 routinely go for $15 or less. So if you think that you can wait and get the card cheaper next time, it is possible, but perhaps more likely that you will have to pay up even more down the road.

I have cards listed on my site, and the low pop cards listed for $80-$100 sell much faster than the high pop ones listed for $17. When people are down to their last 10 cards or so, they will pay a lot to complete the set. If I am lucky, I will pay $1500 to $2000 to find the last 10 cards for my set, with an SMR of $272.

Stump

Buckwheat

This is so true about the last cards needed for a set . I am less than 20 cards needed for my 68 set. Four of what I need just hit ebay and I put very aggressive bids on these cards. I believe my high bids are set at 7-8 times smr where when I was half way through I would put my high bid at 15. I started at 12 got halfway through at 15 went to 22 at two thirds 40 at 85 percent and now am willing to pay high prices to get finished. I guess this is the nature of the beast but I am at a point where I just want closure.I have noticed cards that I have paid 30 -40 dollars for are now at 12-18.

Dave Jacobs

mikeschmidt

Here's Marc's general rule of thumb. If a post 1950s common card has less than twenty examples graded, I think it is generally premature to pay more than double SMR for a PSA 8 card.

Or, in another way to think about it: Generally, any set you will find certain individuals generally unwilling to pay significant premiums for low population commons. Not many people will pay $3,500 for an Overmire card when that costs more than PSA 8's than all but the two or three most significant cards in a set. So -- until a common card demands a significant premium in PSA 7 -- than why pay many times more for a PSA 8? If a PSA 7 Shannon starts selling for $50 - $100, than perhaps it is time to say that the card will continue to be a significant population rarity and an SMR multiple for PSA 8 is warranted. However, as long as PSA 7's of "low pop. commons" tend to stay less than $20 - $30, than it is premature to assume that a PSA 8 is worth hundreds of dollars.

MS

acowa

Rob,

You have me confused with someone else on the 1961 # 306. Yes, I did turn you down. (although we did work something out on several other cards you needed to upgrade to 8's) No, I have never bid on a PSA 8 example of the card. (I have bid on a 9 that went for over $600) My PSA 8 was an original submission. I think the card is one of the truly tough cards of the set. I have worked the shows looking for another...to no avail.

The key is to know which cards are truly tough and which are aberrations. BTW - I have my 1961 set up for auction on EBAY if you want it (along with card 306 in PSA 8).


Regards,


Alan

Buckwheat

You are right that you need to know which cards are truly tough. Sometimes this is not so clear with sets early in their grading history. If you can figure out not only which cards are truly tough, but also which ones have extra demand because they are semistars not listed in SMR, or special cards, or Yankees, etc, then you can make a wise investment early on, and hopefully avoid paying way high for a card that soon becomes very easy to get.

Rob

acowa

Speaking of really truly tough cards...

1953 Topps Miranda High #

I had never seen one on EBAY before ... and this week I found 2...the second is not as well centered as the one I just picked up...but trust me...this card is a beast.


Regards,


Alan

LloydsBaseballCards

Good Seller too, Marc is the best.

Mantlefan

Same is true for the 1957 Topps BB set. Low pops are going for about 10x SMR. If it's a Yankee or a Dodger make it 15-20x. For a fourth [scarce] series lo pop Yankee or Dodger, expect to mortgage the house!

Mantlefan

Here's a prime example of the 1957 situation:

Dick Hyde PSA 8
There are 20 PSA 8's of this card at present. Certainly not that low a population. Two years ago, there were only 13 available and they sold for about $100. I'm leaning towards changing my message to "always looking for centered 1957 Topps BB in PSA 7"!

Buckwheat

That is incredible, Frank. Lends support to the observation that the market is not as soft as everyone says. It is just soft in easy to get cards. Tough to get cards continue to be very strong.

uniship

Speaking of high dollar, low pop commons, check this baby out:

lotta money

doncherry

Uniship,

That card was no low pop common that was the rookie card of Hall of Famer Ferqie Jenkins

Don

FB

1966 PSA 9's and 10's are just insane at the moment. I was talking to Steve Peckovich last week and he mentioned that he was getting $400 apiece in a lot of cases. I love the set, but my guess is that this is one where the bottom is just waiting to fall out.

uniship

DOH! Doncherry, thanks for enlightening me - you are correct! Nevermind.

Basilone

I cannot help to think that:

Low Pop Commons in PSA 8 = Dot.coms from the 90's

John

theBobs

Some low pop cards are likely to not be low pop in the future. But, just like with PS2 or cabbage patch kids, some folks will pay multilples of fair value for the right to have it now.

Scoop

Buckwheat

I have been building the '56 set for the last 3 years, and there are some similarities and some differences.

The total graded numbers are very close to your '61's as close to 52,000 '56's have been graded (which includes regrades that are not subtracted). But, there are no commons with pops less than 20 in PSA 8.

Most of the higher pop (40+) PSA 8 commons were going for around $35 to $45 then, and are still about that price now except for the "harder" 3rd series which go for between $45 (pop above 40)to $100 (pop under 35) -- even though some commons from other 3 series are lower in population.

The lowest pops (#276 Zuverink - 25 PSA 8, no PSA 9), (#268 Mitchell - 21 PSA 8, 2 PSA 9), (#271 Castleman - 24 PSA 8, 2 PSA 9), (#326 C Johnson - 25 PSA 8, 1 PSA 9), (#334 Bob Miller - 25 PSA 8, 4 PSA 9), (#306 C Roberts - 26 PSA 8, 3 PSA 9) and about 6 others under 30 in PSA 8, routinely go for $250. to $550. depending on bidding wars.

PSA 9's with pops 4 or more are around SMR and may even go under. The trickey part comes with pops of 3 or less. I don't understand, but some pop 3's go for SMR and some go considerably higher depending on series. The 1 of 1's usually go for 2x to 5x SMR.

toppsgun

Some on this board have made a nice living thusly:

1) Scouring the pop report for low pop commons.
2) Scouring shows for raw cards off the low pop common list.
3) Getting them graded.
4) Selling them direct or on ebay.
5) Repeat steps 1-4.

Thank you very much.

NickM

What year do people see as the dividing line between when commons in NM-MT or better have likely already been graded and when they're likely still raw (i.e., what years is the pop report not likely to change much in high grade)?
I haven't seen many dealers with '58 and '59 PSA commons (even in 8 or above) at shows, so I'd put it at 1957.

Nick

Vargha

But there are still some amazing raw collections out there, even back to the early 1950's. I am still stunned to see new PSA 9's appearing on the 1951 Bowman Pop. Report on a regular basis.